Source: Aifaner
Author: Li Hua
Fresh thoughts after the scuffle.
After a season, Tesla once again broke the single-season delivery record --
In the first quarter of 2023, more than 422,000 Tesla owners worldwide contributed to the NEV manufacturer's delivery volume.
According to the official production and delivery report,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$A total of 440,808 electric vehicles were produced during the quarter, of which 422,875 were delivered. The majority of these are Model 3/Y, a total of 412,180, and the other 10,695 are the new Model S/Xs.
Compared with the same period last year, Tesla's total production in the first quarter increased 44% year over year, and delivery volume increased 36% year over year.
At this stage, only four S3XY passenger car models, Tesla can continuously break delivery records. It has nothing to do with its forward-looking hardware design and continuous iterative software updates. This is even more evident in the new Model S/X.
In fact, these two luxury pure electric models, which have just begun to be delivered in mainland China, have been on the market for 10 years. The design language of those years has been applied to the present, so it can be said that they have been fresh for a long time.
Compared to the so-called “restyling”, it is probably a more correct path to take when pre-embedding the hardware for an attractive design and then continuously upgrading it. At least the new Model S/X has become a competitive high-performance luxury model with the support of new technologies such as carbon fiber rotor sockets.
If you have a good car, you naturally don't have to worry about selling it. Tesla is firmly on the “number one” sales list in many countries and regions, butChina, the world's largest NEV market, is not on this list.
At the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Conference Forum held recently,$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$Chairman Li Bin said that Tesla has no pricing power in China. “Tesla's price reduction is a method taken after facing fierce competition in the Chinese market, but it does not have pricing power in China.”
He believes that Tesla has pricing power in the US market because it has 60%-70% of the market share in the US, but in China, Tesla's share is only 7%.
In other words, it's not just Tesla that has achieved excellent results this year, and there is no shortage of highlights in the performance of domestic car companies.
The first quarter was mixed, and competition was fierce
In January-January of this year, with the introduction of the subsidy policy and when terminal consumption activity had not yet recovered, the price reduction measures of various car companies increased consumers' wait-and-see sentiment, and the domestic automobile market continued to show a sluggish trend.
According to information released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first two months of this year, among the top ten domestic automobile sales companies, only BYD achieved positive growth in sales growth; all other car companies declined to varying degrees.
However, judging from the March report cards released by various car companies,Most domestic car companies have already climbed out of the trough of the previous two months, and the overall delivery level has picked upSome car companies even surpassed delivery levels at the end of last year, reaching new highs.
Among them,$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$Sales continued to lead the way. It sold 2071,000 new energy vehicles in March, an almost exponential increase over the previous year. In the first quarter of this year, BYD's cumulative retail sales reached 552,200 units, an increase of 92.81% over the previous year.
$GAC GROUP (02238.HK)$The performance of its Aian brand was also impressive, with sales reaching more than 40,000 units in March, up 97% year on year and 33% month on month; total sales in the first quarter exceeded 80,000 units, up 79% year on year.
Move your eyes to new forces,$Li Auto (LI.US)$ The official addition of L7 successfully brought Ideal Auto's monthly delivery volume back to 20,000 vehicles, an increase of 88.7% over the previous year; the cumulative quarterly delivery reached 52,600 vehicles, an increase of 65.8% over the previous year.
According to Li Xiang, CEO of Ideal Auto, the steady increase in delivery volume has a certain relationship with the timely adjustment of its multi-model sales strategy and organizational structure.
The biggest challenge in the automotive industry comes from organizational ability.
After studying companies such as Huawei, IBM, and Apple, Ideal Auto applied the IPD development process to the R&D system, turning the linear process of the past into a three-dimensional process. The PDT manager carried out unified management to solve the problem of “operational chaos”; its organizational structure also changed from a functional organization in the past to a matrix-type organization to help IdealRealize the replication of popular models and increase the speed at which supply and production capacity climb.
On the other hand, NIO, which combines SUVs and sedans, also achieved delivery volume of over 10,000 in March. A total of 31,000 new vehicles were delivered in the first quarter, an increase of 20.5% over the previous year.
As for the AITO brand, which has recently sparked a lot of controversy due to the HUAWEI logo, delivery volume also reached 11,700 vehicles in the first quarter. Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei Terminal BG, revealed that Chery, BAIC, and JAC will also produce cars equipped with Huawei's complete solutions in the future and will uniformly use the “Ask the World” ecological brand. The brand's improved market performance is also worth looking forward to.
In addition to the above few companies, there are actually quite a few car companies that have received excellent report cards, such as Backlard$GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$Both Jikkrypton and Dongfeng's Rantu have seen significant delivery increases. Monthly deliveries were 6,663 and 3027 vehicles respectively, up 22% and 173% month-on-month.
Although quite a few car companies achieved a rebound in sales in March,However, there are still some car companies that continue to be sluggish. Among them$XPeng (XPEV.US)$,$LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK)$, the three Nacha houses are particularly obvious.
Xiaopeng Motor did have a 17% month-on-month increase in March, delivering 7002 vehicles per month, but it is still 54.6% lower than the same period last year. Coupled with the decline data from the previous two months, its quarterly sales volume will reach 18,200 vehicles according to the previous sales guidelines, and after a quarter, Xiaopeng Motor's annual target completion rate is still less than 10%.
Although Nacha Auto achieved more than 10,000 deliveries in March, it actually fell short of expectations. The year-on-year decline was 16.1%, and the quarterly delivery volume of 26,200 vehicles was only half of the same period last year. The situation of running zero was even more difficult. Quarterly delivery was just over 10,000, down 51.3% from the previous year.
As lithium ore prices gradually fall, the NEV market will only become more “internal.” Whether the car companies mentioned above can maintain their competitiveness and survive in the market is still a question.
The competitive pattern is taking shape, and the development of the industry requires new thinking
In 2014, General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized during a visit to SAIC Motor Group that developing new energy vehicles is the only way for China to move from an automobile powerhouse to an automobile powerhouse. This talk also has been happening for nearly ten years; however, ten years are far from enough for the development of the industry.
Zhang Xiyong, general manager of BAIC Group, pointed out the three main problems in the development of China's NEV industry during the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Conference:
Unbalanced regional development
The development of energy forms cannot ignore this and lose one another
Electrification and intelligence require two hands
1. Unbalanced regional development
China has a vast area. Needless to say, new energy vehicles are currently mainly concentrated in the regions south of the Yangtze River and North China and the Central Plains. The market development penetration rate in Northeast and Northwest China is far from sufficient, and market potential has yet to be tapped.
Among them, the key lies in research and development of key technologies for new energy sources, such as power battery efficiency and power, charging efficiency, and environmental adaptability of vehicles. Furthermore, long-distance charging difficulties are still a very common problem. Even in the South, where the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is high and the environment is more friendly, the charging experience during peak travel periods is not good.
2. The development of energy forms cannot ignore this and lose one another
Within China's 9.6 million square kilometer territory, various regions have different resource endowments, different energy advantages, and different infrastructure construction capabilities, which in turn has led to differences in consumption habits and usage scenarios in various regions.
This means that China needs to simultaneously develop the three technical routes of pure electricity, hybrids, and fuel cells to meet different market needs. It is called adapting to local conditions, “if it is good to mix, then hydrogen is good.”
One very happy situation last year was that sales of plug-in and extended-range hybrid vehicles in China increased rapidly, up 1.5 times over the previous year, and the market penetration rate reached 5.7%, accounting for 20% of new energy vehicles. Over the past ten years, this figure has never been higher than 15%.
On the other hand, although VW has just announced that it will no longer launch a new golf course equipped with an internal combustion engine,But the internal combustion engine definitely still has its value.
With the collaborative development of plugging/extended-range hybrids, internal combustion engines and electric drive technology will be more closely integrated, thereby enhancing the level of integration, intelligence and efficiency of power systems, while driving the transformation and upgrading of traditional power systems. For example, some companies have already begun developing special engines for PHEV/REV.
3. Electrification and intelligence require two hands
Car tycoons, including Wang Chuanfu and He Xiaopeng, have all said one thing:
The first half of new energy vehicles was electrified, and the second half was intelligent.
However, Zhang Xiyong believes that this statement unilaterally divides electrification and intelligent connectivity; it is not comprehensive, nor scientific.
At present, China's NEV industry is still in a period of growth. 2022 has only just entered the large-scale popularization stage. The integrated development with intelligent connectivity technology is still in its infancy, and it still needs continuous in-depth development.
For example, Ford, the first to apply a roadway collaboration system on mass-produced vehicles, has only been able to drive through parts of the four cities of Guangzhou, Changsha, Wuxi, and Xi'an since it was launched in '21. The relevant person in charge of Ford China explained that the implementation of road collaboration is closely related to the city's infrastructure and construction conditions.
What's more, at this stage, vehicle and road collaboration can only provide information to drivers; it is impossible to directly transform the value of information into action value. Decisions and execution still depend on the vehicle owner's intentions.
The direction of technology is not the same, but the industrial chain will definitely be autonomous
Although China is the largest NEV market in the world and has nurtured a complete industry ecology, there are still many “stuck neck” problems, and it has encountered serious technical restrictions.
The power battery is one aspect.
Among the top ten battery manufacturers in the world by installed capacity in 2022,$Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750.SZ)$with$BYD Company Limited (002594.SZ)$Steadily at the top, and at the same time,$CALB (03931.HK)$,$Gotion High-tech (002074.SZ)$,$Sunwoda Electronic (300207.SZ)$,$Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co., Ltd. (688567.SH)$The total installed capacity also reached 50.7 GWh, accounting for 10%. However, when it comes to lithium-metal solid-state batteries, they are still lagging behind.
On the other hand, wire-controlled chassis, as the cornerstone for achieving high-level autonomous driving, is also one of the key core technologies that have been “stuck” in our country.
Whether it's L1 and L2 level functions such as AEB and ACC, or advanced assisted driving functions such as long-distance valet parking and urban NOA, the intention of autonomous driving must ultimately be realized through the vehicle's omnidirectional control.
Tao Zhe, CEO of Hainasen Automotive Electronics Co., Ltd., said that until now, core chassis technologies such as line control operation and wire control steering have been firmly dominated by foreign component giants. China has lacked autonomous line control chassis companies for a long time, and it is impossible to fully satisfy the implementation of advanced autonomous driving technology at L3 and above.
However, there are also people who have different opinions about autonomous driving.
Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, said on the same day, “Driverless driving is all nonsense; anything that makes a false sense is a fool.” He believes that the main direction of the future will still be assisted driving, which requires the driver to hold the steering wheel. ADAS algorithms and advanced assisted driving will be deified under the yoke of capital.
In the end, the market will return to rationality.
Editor/Somer