The US economic data is poor. In February, there were 9.931 million vacancies at JoLTs. This is the first time in the past two years since May 2021 that it fell below 10 million and fell far short of expectations, representing a cooling in labor demand. In February, factory orders fell 0.7% month-on-month, and durable goods orders fell 1% month-on-month. The decline was less than the previous value but continued to decline; non-defense capital durable goods orders excluding aircraft fell 0.1% month-on-month from the final value, and the initial value increased 0.2%.

After the data was released, the three major US stock indices declined across the board at the beginning of the session. The yield on European and American short-term treasury bonds, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, dived, and the decline in the US dollar index widened because the data may help prevent the Fed from raising interest rates further. According to some analysts, if the March non-farm payrolls released on Friday show signs of substantial weakness, and the March CPI inflation is low, the Federal Reserve may consider suspending interest rate hikes in May.

Others claim that concerns about the banking crisis seem to be over, and the focus of the market is shifting to monetary tightening and economic data from European and American central banks. Futures pricing shows that the market bet that the Fed will start cutting interest rates as early as September, and by December interest rates were only slightly above 4.3%. Traders believe that the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points in May fell from 57% to 42%, and the probability of not raising interest rates for the time being rose again from 43% to 58%.

J.P. Morgan CEO Dimon said in his annual shareholder letter that the banking crisis is not over yet and will have an “impact in the next few years,” but it is completely different from what happened during the 2008 global financial crisis, and it should be solved by reimagining regulatory procedures. He warned that J.P. Morgan “is prepared for higher interest rates and may face higher inflation for a longer period of time.”

According to Surge News, US President Joe Biden will discuss the “risks and opportunities” of artificial intelligence with technology advisors. Meet to discuss “protection of rights and safety,” “ensuring responsible innovation,” and “implementing appropriate safeguards.” Biden will also reaffirm that Congress needs to adopt legislation to protect children in the field of artificial intelligence and restrict the collection of data by technology companies.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has suspended interest rate hikes for the first time since it began the interest rate hike cycle in April last year, saying that it will take more time to evaluate economic conditions and prospects in a rather uncertain environment, and that the Australian dollar has fallen below a one-month high against the US dollar. Eurozone PPI rose 13.2% year on year in February, but fell 0.5% month on month and fell for the fifth month in a row. A survey by the European Central Bank shows that consumers are becoming more optimistic about falling inflation.

S&P and the Dow stopped rising four times in a row and fell below their six-week high. AI concept stocks plummeted, and the NASDAQ further broke away from a new high of more than half a year

On Tuesday, April 4, US labor demand began to cool down, and ISM manufacturing data released yesterday fell beyond expectations. Concerns about an economic slowdown or even an impending recession put pressure on risk assets. The S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq quickly turned down after opening higher, while the Dow opened lower and moved lower.

At midday trading, US stocks collectively hit daily lows. The Dow fell by 325 points or nearly 1%, the deepest drop of the S&P by 0.9% and at one point fell below the 4,100 point level. The NASDAQ fell 0.8% at its deepest, and Russell small-cap stocks fell 2.3% to lead the main index, falling below the 1,800 point level.

By the close, both S&P and the Dow had stopped rising for four days and fell from new highs of more than six weeks. The NASDAQ and the NASDAQ 100 fell for two consecutive days, further breaking away from their highs of more than half a year. Russell's small-cap stock fell for two days in a row, falling below a three-week high:

The S&P 500 index closed down 23.91 points, or 0.58%, to 4100.60 points. The Dow closed down 198.77 points, or 0.59%, to 33402.38 points. The Nasdaq closed down 63.12 points, or 0.52%, to 12126.33 points. The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index fell 1.8%.

Most of the 11 S&P sectors closed down, with industry falling more than 2% and the worst performance. Energy fell 1.7%. On Monday, it rose nearly 5%, which was the biggest increase since October last year; raw materials fell 1.47%, finance fell 1%, technology fell 0.6%, telecommunications rose 0.3%, and utilities rose 0.5%.

Bank of America strategists said that last week, its clients sold US stocks for the first time in five weeks, and the scale of withdrawal from US stocks was the largest since October last year. Among them, technology stocks experienced their first capital outflow in six weeks, but the first quarter was still the leading sector for capital inflows.

Star technology stocks have had mixed ups and downs. “Metaverse” Meta rose 0.8% to a new 11-month high; Apple fell 0.3%, falling below a seven-and-a-half-month high; Netflix fell 0.4% and fell to a six-week high; and Google A rose 0.3%, hitting a new high of more than a week. Microsoft declined slightly and missed the seven-and-a-half-month high. Amazon rose 1.5% to a two-month high. Tesla, which fell by more than 6% yesterday, fell by more than 1%, taking back the gains made since last Wednesday.

Most chip stocks fell, but Intel rose 0.6% to a new high of seven and a half months. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell nearly 2%, falling below 3,200 points, falling for two consecutive days and erasing gains since last Wednesday. AMD fell 0.7%, and Nvidia fell nearly 2% and fell below a one-year high.

Artificial intelligence AI concept stocks have plummeted. C3.ai fell by more than 26%, the biggest drop since listing, erasing gains since last Wednesday. Kerrisdale Capital, a well-known short selling fund, said it had sent a letter to C3.ai's auditors on accounting and disclosure issues and had published a short report on March 6, claiming that it had falsely claimed leadership in AI technology. Bigbear.ai, which also belongs to the AI sector, closed down more than 14% after falling nearly 23%, and Soundhound.ai closed down more than 12% after falling more than 17%, all falling to the one-month high set yesterday.

In the midst of popularity, the US stock market is generally falling. China's general ETFs KWEB, CQQQ, and Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) all fell by about 1%. Among the four constituent stocks of the Nasdaq 100, JD fell more than 1%, Baidu fell 0.4%, Pinduoduo fell more than 2%, and NetEase rose 0.6%. Among other individual stocks, Alibaba rose more than 2%, and the Alibaba version of ChatGPT may be unveiled on the 11th of this month. Closed beta testing is already underway. Tencent ADR erased a decline of more than 1%, Station B fell 4.5%, NIO fell 6%, Xiaopeng Motor fell 7%, and Ideal Auto fell 2%.

Among bank stocks:

The industry benchmarks Philadelphia Stock Exchange KBW Bank Index (BKX), KBW Nasdaq Regional Bank Index (KRX), and SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) all fell about 2%.

The stocks of major US banks generally declined. J.P. Morgan, Citibank, and Goldman Sachs fell more than 1%, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley fell more than 2%, and asset management giant Charles Schenn Wealth Management fell more than 3%.

Regional bank stocks fell sharply, but First Citizens Bank shares (FCNCA), which acquired most of Silicon Valley Bank's assets, rose 0.6%; Western Alliance Bancorp (Western Alliance Bancorp) fell nearly 4%, PacWest Bankorp (PacWest Bankorp) fell nearly 3%, and Zions Bancorporation, KeyCorp, and First Republic Bank fell more than 5%.

Credit Suisse's European and US stocks rose about 1%, UBS's European stocks rose 0.2%, and US stocks rose 1.5%. Credit Suisse held its last annual shareholders' meeting before being taken over by UBS. The chairman of Credit Suisse publicly apologized for the first time. Shareholders of the two banks failed to vote on the $3.25 billion acquisition.

Other individual stocks that have changed a lot include:

Virgin Orbit, the “rival” of satellite launch company SpaceX, has officially filed for bankruptcy protection. The stock price has fallen more than 23% to a record low, falling 90% this year. The company says it has not received enough capital to maintain operations and will seek to sell assets and lay off almost all employees.

The common stock of the WSB concept stock AMC Cinemas fell more than 23% to a three-month low and the biggest decline in two years. The company reached a settlement agreement with a group of shareholders, paving the way for further equity financing. Its preferred stock, APE, which can be converted to common stock, rose 14% to a three-week high.

The drug Gohibic developed by pharmaceutical company InflarX received emergency authorization from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and was used to treat COVID-19 infections. InflarX's stock price closed up nearly 84% to the highest level since January last year, triggering a meltdown in the intraday period.

European stocks generally fell; only German stocks and the Eurozone Stoxx 50 Index closed higher. The pan-European Stoxx 600 Index closed down 0.08%, falling slightly for the second day in a row. Oil and gas stocks turned down today after rising 4% on Monday. The Stoxx 600 bank stock index rose 1.4% and then turned down slightly at the end of the session.

Expectations of the Fed's transition to pigeons are heating up, European and American short-term bond yields have dived, and two-year US bond yields have fallen by nearly 15 basis points and fallen below 4%

The labor market showed signs of cooling down. European and US bond yields fell across the board, and short-term bond yields, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, fell even deeper.

The two-year US Treasury yield dived in the short term. The deepest drop was nearly 15 basis points, falling below the 4% mark again, erasing most of the gains since last Monday. The 10-year base bond yield fell as deep as 10 basis points to 3.34%, falling to a low of nearly seven months since September last year.

European bond yields also reversed their previous gains after the US JOLTS economic data was released. The Eurozone benchmark two-year German bond yield fell more than 7 basis points to a fresh daily low of 2.6%. The US stock market rose to a daily high of 2.735% before the market; the 10-year yield fell slightly at the end of the session.

According to some analysts, the Fed's expectations for a shift in pigeons have risen sharply, and the two-year yield spread between US bonds and German bonds has narrowed to the narrowest point in the past two years. Compared to the Federal Reserve, the market still believes that the ECB will continue the tightening process for a longer period of time under high inflationary pressure, and it is impossible to rule out a 50 basis point increase in interest rates in May.

Oil prices once fell after rising nearly 2%, then turned slightly higher at the end of the session. US oil hit a new high of more than two months, and oil was at a four-week high

Oil prices once declined during midday trading in the US stock market. Concerns that the cooling of the economy would lead to sluggish oil demand exceeded the impact of several OPEC core member countries unexpectedly announcing voluntary additional production cuts. Oil prices rose by more than 6% yesterday, the biggest increase in nearly a year, and collectively rose above $80.

WTI May crude oil futures closed up $0.29, or 0.36%, to $80.71 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures for May closed up $0.01, or 0.01%, to $84.94 per barrel.

WTI rose to a high of 1.36 US dollars or 1.7% before the decline, and the daily high was pushed to 82 US dollars. At the time of the decline, it fell 1% and fell below the psychological level of 80 US dollars. It turned back up before the end of the session and rose again to 80 US dollars, the highest in more than two months since January 27.

International Brent rose to a high of 1.51 US dollars or 1.8% before turning down, and the daily high rose above 86 US dollars. At the time of turning down, it fell nearly 1% and fell to 84 US dollars. At the end of the session, it hovered around 85 US dollars. Yesterday, it hit a four-week high since March 7.

ICE UK gas futures fell more than 12% at the end of the session, falling below the 110 pence/kcal integer. The European benchmark Dutch TTF gas futures fell 9% at the end of the session, reaching a new low of 45.5 euros/MWH, falling below the 50 euro integer level and missing a three-week high.

The US NYMEX gas futures in May turned upward, returning to $2.10/million British thermal units. Yesterday, it once fell nearly 9% in the intraday period and fell to the full level of $2, close to the lowest in two and a half years since September 2020 set last Wednesday.

The US dollar fell 102 to its lowest level in more than two months. The pound once hit a ten-month high, and the yen stopped falling and turned upward against the US dollar

Economic data have been poor for many days in a row. The DXY index, which measures a basket of US dollars against six major currencies, fell 0.6% and fell below the 102 mark, breaking a new low of more than two months since February 2.

The euro rose 0.7% against the US dollar and rose above 1.09, the highest since the beginning of February. The pound once rose more than 110 points or 0.9% against the US dollar, rising above 1.25, the highest in ten months since June last year. The dollar fell to a two-month low against the Swiss franc, fell 0.7% against the yen and fell below 132. The US stock market rose 0.6% before the market and rose above 133. Offshore RMB was traded at 6.88 yuan, and the intraday decline narrowed markedly.

Spot gold rose above $2,000, up nearly 2% from futures to the highest in 13 months, copper and zinc fell 2%, and Lunxi fell 4%

COMEX June gold futures closed 1.9% at $2038.20 per ounce, rising above $2,040 during the intraday period. Spot gold also rose nearly 2%, rising successively above four integers between 1990 and 2020, all rising two times to a new 13-month high since March last year. Futures rose nearly 5% and rose above $25/oz, a nearly one-year high since mid-April last year.

According to the analysis, the price of gold has risen by more than 11% this year. If non-farm payrolls show signs of a slowdown in recruitment activity on Friday, it may once again support the price of gold, because the cooling of the labor market makes it expected that the Fed may be close to ending austerity.

London's industrial base metals generally declined for the second day in a row. Lundong fell $166, or 1.9%, and fell below the $8,900 and 8800 mark, reaching a two-week low. Lunzinc fell more than 2% to a five-month low. Lunxi fell more than 1,000 US dollars or 4%, successively falling below the 26,000 and 25,000 US dollars mark, and Lun Lu and Lun Nickel, which fell more than 1%, both hitting new one-week lows.

Editor/Somer