occurrences

On March 31, 2023, the company released a performance forecast for the first quarter of 2023. It expects revenue of 9200-93 million yuan, an increase of 167.89%-170.81% over the previous year; the net profit of the mother returned to the mother was 53-58 million yuan, an increase of 72.39%-88.65% over the previous year; net profit after deducting the non-return mother was 45-51 million yuan, an increase of 94.62%-120.57% over the previous year.

reviews

Paclitaxel micellar doses continue to be released as the indications expand. (1) The core product, Class 2.2 paclitaxel polymer micelles for injection, continued to be released, and revenue and profit increased rapidly year-on-year in Q1 2023. (2) The injectable paclitaxel polymer micelle was approved in 2021 for first-line treatment of non-small cell lung cancer. This product innovates dosage forms based on traditional paclitaxel. Through unique polymer synthesis technology, it exclusively develops pharmaceutical excipients that accurately match the active ingredients of natural paclitaxel drugs and has an extremely narrow distribution coefficient, and an exclusive paclitaxel innovative dosage form made using nanotechnology (about 18-20 nm). (3) More than 20 nano paclitaxel micelles are being clinically studied, and indications are being expanded. The types of cancer involved in clinical practice include breast cancer, lung cancer, pancreatic cancer, stomach cancer, bile duct cancer, colorectal cancer, esophageal cancer, head and neck tumors, and ovarian cancer. Among them, the phase III clinical trial IND for breast cancer has been approved by CDE, and phase III clinical trials for advanced lung squamous cell cancer and combined PD-1 have been submitted to IND.

According to WHO data, there were 48, 42, 120,000, and 60,000 new cases of gastric cancer, breast cancer, pancreatic cancer, and ovarian cancer in China in 2020, respectively. There is still a lot of room for improvement in the patient base of nano-paclitaxel micelles.

Self-operated sales+cooperative sales are combined to jointly promote the release of injectable paclitaxel micellar terminals. (1) The company's sales model combines its own operation with Baiyang Pharmaceutical to jointly promote the commercialization of paclitaxel micelles. (2) Production capacity continues to expand. Additional production lines are scheduled to be commercialized in mid-2023, and production capacity will be fully expanded to reach 1 million units to meet the clinical needs of patients. (3) By the end of 2022, the company had successfully connected to the Internet in 27 provinces and cities across the country, and currently has a self-operated sales team of more than 120 people; combined with the product entering the CSCO clinical guidelines, etc., it is expected that admissions will accelerate significantly in 23.

Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings

We maintain our profit forecast. We expect to achieve revenue of 498/86/1,353 million yuan in 2023/24/25, an increase of 111%/73%/57% over the previous year; Guimu's net profit was 3.04/558/896 million yuan, an increase of 112%/84%/61% over the previous year. Maintain a “buy” rating.

Risk warning

Risks such as reliance on a single product, falling short of expectations in commercialization, and rapid changes in technology in the company's drug delivery system innovation field.