Performance Overview: Achieved revenue/net profit of Fumo in '22 was 251.3/7.93 billion yuan, YOY -26.6%/-27.0%, respectively; the weighted average ROE was 7.23%, year-on-year -3.44pcts; 22Q4 achieved net profit of 2.70 billion yuan, QOQ +160.1%, and YOY +21.8%. Brokers/investment banks/asset management/credit/proprietary income (excluding other business income) contributed 30.0%/2.9%/42.0%/19.3%/5.9%, respectively.
The double rise in the size of stocks and bonds has driven a sharp increase in investment banking business, and the asset management position continues to be stable. 1) Investment business:
The company achieved net income of 610 million yuan from the investment banking business, YOY +41.1%. The company's equity underwriting amount in '22 was 18.407 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 12 times over '21; the amount of debt underwriting was 142,076 billion yuan, yoy +358.4%, issuing 188 bond issues, yoy +370.0%. 2) Asset management business: The company achieved asset management business revenue of 8.939 billion yuan, YOY -10.1%, the largest source of revenue. At the end of the period, the size of GF Asset Management, Guangfa Fund (holding 55% of shares), and eFunda Fund (holding 23% of shares) was 2712/12497/1572.8 billion yuan, YOY -45.0%/+10.6%/-7.8%, respectively. The total profit contribution of GF and EFD Fund was 26%. 3) Brokerage business: The company achieved brokerage revenue of 6.387 billion yuan, YOY -19.9%.
Non-commodity public funds hold 94.8 billion yuan, ranking 3rd among brokerage firms, after CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities; the stock base turnover was 19.9 trillion yuan, YOY -6.6%, and the market share increased by 0.16 pct to 4.01%.
The scale of two financings declined, and self-employment dragged down performance. 1) Credit business: The company achieved net interest income of 4.101 billion yuan, yoy -16.9%. The balance of the company's two loans was 83.03 billion yuan, YOY -11.7%, and the market share increased by 0.26pct to 5.39%; the company's stock pledge business balance at the end of the period was 9.63 billion yuan, YOY -25.3%. 2) Self-operated business: The company's own income was 1,265 million yuan, or YOY -78.0%, which was the main reason for the decline in performance.
Net revenue from self-operated businesses in 22Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 was -11.4/17.9/-7.0/1.31 billion yuan respectively. The marginal improvement in self-operated investment in the fourth quarter.
Investment advice: The company's pressure reduction management fees in '22 was mainly a reduction in employee expenses to improve profit margins. Considering that the company's asset management advantage is stable, the investment banking business continues to recover. We forecast the growth rate of the company's net profit to the mother in 23-25 +29.8%/+18.5%/+13.3%. The current stock price corresponds to 0.99 times the 2023 PB, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of market fluctuations, business risk, risk of declining market activity.