The company's revenue in 2022 was $32.04 billion, down 3.08% from the same period. Among them, Q1-4 revenue and growth rates were 8.515 billion (-16.57%), 8.161 billion (+17.14%), 8.68 billion (+1.06%), and 6.648 billion yuan (-8.4%), respectively.
By product, the company's revenue for white cardboard/double coated paper/coated paper/electrostatic paper in 2022 was 90.62/84.50/41.50/4,050/ 4,077 billion, respectively, -5.41%/+15.95%/-3.73%/+5.71% compared to the same period last year. Market demand improved month by month in '23. The price of white cardboard increased by 100 yuan/ton in February and cultural paper increased by 200 yuan/ton in March. Along with the recovery of the domestic economy, demand is expected to continue to recover.
By region, mainland China's revenue in 2022 was 23.860 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.42%; the company seized the opportunity of a sharp decline in overseas paper supply and improved the global sales network. Overseas revenue in 2022 was 8.144 billion yuan, an increase of 97.39% over the same period.
In 2022, the company's net profit to the mother was 189 million yuan, a decrease of 90.84% from the same period. Among them, Q1-4 net profit and growth rates were 114 million yuan (-90.34%), 116 million (-86.2%), 0.1 million (-93.53%), and -51 million yuan (+56.10%), respectively. Gross margin and net interest rate were 14.47% and 0.99%, respectively, less 9.14pct and -5.34pct respectively. By product, the gross margins of white cardboard/double-coated paper/coated paper/electrostatic paper were 13.6%/12.3%/16.7%/14.2%, respectively, compared to -18.1/-5.3/-10.7/-4.3pct.
Give full play to the advantages of industrial layout, improve quality and efficiency to help high-quality growth. The company currently has an annual production capacity of over 1,100 wt of pulp and paper. It actively lays out production bases around the integrated strategy of pulp and paper. The collaborative development pattern of Shouguang, Huanggang and Zhanjiang has been further formed, relying on large-scale advantages to reduce production and logistics costs and ensure efficiency. At the same time, advanced international production equipment has been introduced to help improve product quality and structural upgrading through technological innovation and process optimization; continuously improve technological innovation capabilities and scientific research and development levels. By the end of 22, the company had obtained more than 380 national patents.
Continue to expand overseas business and optimize layout to enhance competitiveness. Overseas revenue increased sharply in '22, with a gross profit margin of 12.9%, +2.5pct over the same period last year. In '23, the company will continue to expand its overseas business, further expand the sales team, divide different sales areas to cover, increase the proportion of overseas sales; optimize the overseas market layout and add management areas and branches; make full use of the advantages of the company's industrial layout to increase the proximity market launch of high-efficiency products and improve service efficiency and product competitiveness.
Strengthen cost control and improve the level of supply chain management. The company will further strengthen supplier management, strictly control procurement costs, and comprehensively improve the level of supply chain management. 1) Strengthen the construction of raw material source channels, cooperate deeply with high-quality suppliers in Australia, Thailand, Vietnam, etc., and set up offices to ensure a stable supply of high-quality raw materials; 2) In-depth research and analysis of market rules to improve procurement efficiency; 3) Introduce new processes and technologies, optimize the use of raw materials, go deep into domestic substitution, and tap cost potential; 4) Continue to implement the consignment model to reduce capital consumption and achieve efficiency in supply chain management.
Adjust profit forecasts to maintain the “buy” rating. With the recovery in downstream demand, the company's performance is expected to continue to improve. At the same time, considering that cost improvements still require some transmission time, we adjusted our profit forecasts. The company's 23-25 revenue is estimated to be 349.8/367.9/385.9 billion respectively (23-24 original values were 349.5 billion and 36.49 billion yuan respectively), and net profit of 23-25 is 1,32/20.2/2.4 billion (23-24 original values were 1,59/ 2.43 billion yuan respectively), EPS is 0.44/0.68/0.80 yuan/share (23), respectively (23 (The original value of -24 was 0.53/0.81 yuan/share, respectively).
Risk warning: macroeconomic policy risk; environmental risk; risk of increased market competition; risk of fluctuations in raw material prices; risk of financial leasing business.