来源：智通财经
摩根士丹利表示，股市熊市一直持续到春季，但潜在的周期性和长期因素正在推动股价上涨。推动因素包括美联储随着通胀放缓而采取更宽松的货币政策、消费者资产负债表企稳、被压抑的投资/资本支出和某些消费服务领域的需求、积极的经营杠杆、人工智能技术溢出效应等。
摩根士丹利股票策略师Michelle Weaver、Mike Wilson及其团队表示：“主要标准是可持续性——竞争优势、商业模式、定价权、成本效率和增长，我们试图找出具有最好的特许经营而不是最被低估的股票。”
摩根士丹利策略师筛选出30只美股，到2025年这些公司的商业模式和市场地位优势日益凸显。
这些股票包括:
1.摩根士丹利予$谷歌-A(GOOGL.US)$“增持”评级，目标价135美元。“我们看到管理层专注于持久地重组成本基础，并看到Alphabet致力于提高基础设施、模型和应用层的人工智能计算成本效率，这建立了利润率不会在长期内压缩的信心。”
2.摩根士丹利予$美国运通(AXP.US)$“增持”评级，目标价186美元。“我们预计，市场营销和信用卡会员契约费用增长放缓，将有助于2023年推动运营杠杆增长430个基点，达到10多年来的最高水平，在同行中表现突出。我们预计，积极的经营杠杆增长也将持续到2024年，即使营收增长放缓。”
3.摩根士丹利予$黑石(BX.US)$“增持”评级，目标价115美元。“黑石的长期锁定资本、增加永久资本的举措，以及超过1870亿美元的资金储备，将使该公司能够耐心等待退出和部署的时机。”
4.摩根士丹利予$Cheniere Energy(LNG.US)$“增持”评级，目标价189美元。“在未来几年，弹性自由现金流(FCF)应该会支持杠杆率下降、股息增加和股票回购。”
5.摩根士丹利予$好市多(COST.US)$“增持”评级，目标价520美元。“我们认为新冠疫情、消费者的通胀压力和油价波动加强了好市多的价值主张，与过去几年相比，好市多可能会有更高的会员粘性和支出整合。”
6.摩根士丹利予$伊顿(ETN.US)$“增持”评级，目标价200美元。“我们估计，订单可能会下降20%以上，但仍将以高于正常水平的可见性/积压订单覆盖率进入2025年。”
7.摩根士丹利予$礼来(LLY.US)$“增持”评级，目标价444美元。“据我们估计，从2023年到2030年，礼来的营收将以10%的复合年增长率增长，这将使利润率从2022年的28%扩大到2025年及以后的40%以上，从而推动每股收益增长18%。”
8.摩根士丹利予$雅诗兰黛(EL.US)$“增持”评级，目标价282美元。“市场普遍预测，与新冠疫情前相比，未来两年营收的复合年增长率仅为3-4%，考虑到中国市场对高端美妆产品的需求恢复增长，这些预测看起来太低了。”
9.摩根士丹利予$埃克森美孚(XOM.US)$“增持”评级，目标价114美元。“除了受益于我们预期的多年的强劲油气价格，埃克森美孚的主动去碳化战略应该有助于降低长期现金流的风险，并减轻终端价值的不确定性，抵消石油和天然气长期需求侵蚀的影响。”
10.摩根士丹利予$希尔顿酒店(HLT.US)$“增持”评级，目标价168美元。“该公司是拥有在建业务最多的公司之一(与目前相比增长18%)，我们预计未来三年该公司将实现5%以上的增长(新品牌Spark的增长潜力为6-7%)。”
11.摩根士丹利予$直觉外科公司(ISRG.US)$“增持”评级，目标价265美元。“我们看到了通过发展数字能力和数据洞察来增强机器人系统的潜在开放式机会，这可能会进一步增强直觉外科公司的产品，并可能提供更有粘性的市场份额。”
12.摩根士丹利予$摩根大通(JPM.US)$“增持”评级，目标价173美元。“我们认为摩根大通应该继续占据市场份额，因为其20%的分支网络已经有10年历史了，远远高于12%的行业平均水平和中等个位数的大银行平均水平。“
13.摩根士丹利予$Liberty Formula One-C(FWONK.US)$“增持”评级，目标价80美元。”长期来看，该公司在世界上最大的媒体市场——美国的收入呈指数增长。“
14.摩根士丹利予$Linde(LIN.US)$“增持”评级，目标价365美元。“我们认为Linde被低估了，该公司有每股收益显著增长、定价权和灵活的资产负债表作为支撑。”
15.摩根士丹利予$Lululemon Athletica(LULU.US)$“增持”评级，目标价387美元。“综合来看，Lululemon有能力在这个有吸引力的市场中占有份额，再加上息税前利润的增长，可能会使每股收益持续增长，并推动股价走高。”
16.摩根士丹利予$万事达(MA.US)$“增持”评级，目标价438美元。“在未来3-10年里，万事达很可能成为B2B支付发展的关键角色。”
17.摩根士丹利予$微软(MSFT.US)$“增持”评级，目标价307美元。“从第二季度的低谷开始，微软有望实现5个季度的每股收益加速增长，我们看到了增持微软股票的机会，在我们看来，目前的股价水平被严重低估了。”
18.摩根士丹利予$摩托罗拉解决方案(MSI.US)$“增持”评级，目标价260美元。“LMR(陆地移动无线电) / 一键通(Push-To-Talk)市场预计将持续增长数年，且进入门槛很高，我们相信摩托罗拉在其核心市场具有吸引力的竞争地位。我们也看好摩托罗拉围绕这一市场地位进行优化的能力，并为股票回购/分红创造现金。”
19.摩根士丹利予$MSCI Inc(MSCI.US)$“增持”评级，目标价543美元。“得益于指数行业的强劲前景和执行力，该公司的预期有机增长率高达12%，远高于我们覆盖的其他股票的7.5%。”
20.摩根士丹利予$新纪元能源(NEE.US)$“增持”评级，目标价97美元。“我们认为新纪元能源有望成为建设这些新市场和获得有吸引力的低风险回报的领导者之一。”
21.摩根士丹利予$耐克(NKE.US)$“增持”评级，目标价140美元。“我们预计DTC战略将推营收增长，盈利能力也有望提高。”
22.摩根士丹利予$诺斯罗普格鲁曼(NOC.US)$“增持”评级，目标价601美元。“诺斯罗普格鲁曼计划在2023年将FCF的100%以上返还给股东，我们预计其一流的管理团队至少在2025年之前将继续运行对股东友好的资本策略。”
23.摩根士丹利予$Old Dominion Freight Line(ODFL.US)$“增持”评级，目标价340美元。“该公司的主要优势包括规模优势，拥有比同行更多的房地产业务，通过周期和卓越的管理投资于增长，这推动了该公司实现一流的业绩记录。”
24.摩根士丹利予$安博(PLD.US)$“增持”评级，目标价128美元。“有利的供应/需求动态应该使安博免受宏观经济放缓的影响。”
25.摩根士丹利予$雷神技术(RTX.US)$“增持”评级，目标价115美元。“我们认为更高的国防开支提供了多年的增长前景，尽管这种增长需要时间才能实现。”
26.摩根士丹利予$赛默飞世尔(TMO.US)$“增持”评级，目标价670美元。“我们坚信，赛默飞世尔有能力超越同行和终端市场，这得益于对高增长垂直行业(特别是生物制药)和区域市场(包括中国)的敞口增加，以及其投资组合的广度、深度有助于推动收益增长。”
27.摩根士丹利予$T-Mobile US(TMUS.US)$“增持”评级，目标价175美元。“持续的协同效应和不断增长的规模将使公司能够在长期内将服务业务EBITDA利润率扩大到55%，而2022年为43%。”
28.摩根士丹利予$联合健康(UNH.US)$“增持”评级，目标价587美元。“我们相信，联合健康在健康保险，医疗服务，药房服务和数据分析方面的多元化业务的弹性将产生长期的两位数收益增长。该公司还是具有高度防御性的管理式护理(MCO)行业的知名品牌。”
29.摩根士丹利予$Visa(V.US)$“增持”评级，目标价288美元。“多年来的趋势数字化(移动商务和电子商务)应该使Visa的增长超过全球个人消费支出的增长，而通胀的上升应该有利于其业务，该公司的2/3营收与交易量有关。”
30.摩根士丹利予$百胜餐饮(YUM.US)$“增持”评级，目标价155美元。“从广义上讲，品牌定位、菜单和商店处于有利的位置，数字渠道也已建立，有助于肯德基和必胜客在任何经济环境和任何国家中竞争。”
编辑/jayden
Source: Zhitong Finance
Morgan Stanley said that the stock market bear market continued until spring, but potential cyclical and long-term factors are driving stock prices higher. Drivers include the Federal Reserve's adoption of a more relaxed monetary policy as inflation slows, the stabilization of consumer balance sheets, depressed investment/capital expenditure and demand in certain consumer service sectors, active operating leverage, and the spillover effects of artificial intelligence technology.
Morgan Stanley stock strategists Michelle Weaver, Mike Wilson, and their team said, “The main criteria are sustainability—competitive advantage, business models, pricing power, cost efficiency, and growth, and we're trying to find the best franchises rather than the most underrated stocks.”
Morgan Stanley strategists have selected 30 US stocks. By 2025, the business models and market position advantages of these companies will become more and more prominent.
These stocks include:
1. Morgan Stanley$Google-A (GOOGL.US) $“Overweight” rating, target price of $135.“We saw management's focus on sustainably restructuring the cost base and Alphabet's commitment to improving the cost efficiency of artificial intelligence computing at the infrastructure, model, and application layers, which built confidence that profit margins would not be compressed in the long term.”
2. Morgan Stanley$American Express (AXP.US) $“Overweight” rating with a target price of $186.“We anticipate that the slowdown in marketing and credit card membership fee growth will help drive operating leverage increase of 430 basis points in 2023, reaching the highest level in more than 10 years, and showing outstanding performance among peers. We expect positive operating leverage growth to continue into 2024, even if revenue growth slows down.”
3. Morgan Stanley$BLACKSTONE (BX.US) $“Overweight” rating with a target price of $115.“Blackstone's long-term capital lock-up, moves to increase permanent capital, and capital reserves of more than $187 billion will allow the company to wait patiently for time to exit and deploy.”
4. Morgan Stanley$Cheniere Energy (LNG.US) $“Overweight” rating, target price of $189.“Flexible free cash flow (FCF) should support declining leverage, increased dividends, and share buybacks over the next few years.”
5. Morgan Stanley$Cost.US (COST.US) $“Overweight” rating, target price of $520.“We believe the COVID-19 pandemic, consumer inflationary pressure, and oil price fluctuations have strengthened Costco's value proposition. Compared with the past few years, Costco is likely to have higher membership stickiness and spending consolidation.”
6. Morgan Stanley$Eaton (ETN.US) $“Overweight” rating, target price of $200.“We estimate that orders may drop by more than 20%, but will still enter 2025 with a higher than normal level of visibility/backlog coverage.”
7. Morgan Stanley$Lilly (LL.US) $“Overweight” rating, target price of $444.“According to our estimates, from 2023 to 2030, Lilly's revenue will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 10%, which will expand profit margins from 28% in 2022 to more than 40% in 2025 and beyond, thus driving an 18% increase in earnings per share.”
8. Morgan Stanley$Estée Lauder (EL.US) $“Overweight” rating, target price of $282.“The market generally predicts that compared with before the COVID-19 pandemic, the compound annual growth rate of revenue for the next two years will be only 3-4%. Considering the resumption of growth in demand for high-end beauty products in the Chinese market, these predictions seem too low.”
9. Morgan Stanley$ExxonMobil (XOM.US) $“Overweight” rating, target price of $114.“In addition to benefiting from the strong oil and gas prices we have anticipated for many years, ExxonMobil's active decarbonization strategy should help reduce the risk of long-term cash flow and mitigate uncertainty in terminal value to offset the impact of long-term oil and gas demand erosion.”
10. Morgan Stanley$Hilton Hotel (HLT.US) $“Overweight” rating, target price of $168.“The company is one of the companies with the most business under construction (18% increase compared to now), and we expect the company to grow by more than 5% over the next three years (the growth potential of the new brand Spark is 6-7%).”
11. Morgan Stanley$Intuitive Surgery Inc. (ISRG.US) $“Overweight” rating with a target price of $265.“We see potential open opportunities to enhance robotic systems through the development of digital capabilities and data insights, which could further enhance Intuitive Surgery's products and potentially provide a more sticky market share.”
12. Morgan Stanley$J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM.US) $“Overweight” rating with a target price of $173.“We think J.P. Morgan should continue to occupy market share because 20% of its branch network is 10 years old, far higher than the industry average of 12% and the average of large banks with medium single digits. ”
13. Morgan Stanley$Liberty Formula One-C (FWONK.US) $“Overweight” rating with a target price of $80.” Over the long term, the company's revenue in the US, the world's largest media market, has grown exponentially. ”
14. Morgan Stanley$Linde (LIN.US) $“Overweight” rating with a target price of $365.“We think Linde is undervalued. The company is supported by significant earnings per share growth, pricing power, and a flexible balance sheet.”
15. Morgan Stanley$Lululemon Athletica (LULU.US) $“Overweight” rating with a target price of $387.“Taken together, Lululemon's ability to take a share of this attractive market, combined with the increase in profit before interest and tax, may continue to increase earnings per share and drive stock prices higher.”
16. Morgan Stanley$Mastercard (MA.US) $“Overweight” rating, target price of $438.“Over the next 3-10 years, Mastercard is likely to be a key player in B2B payment development.”
17. Morgan Stanley$Microsoft (MSFT.US) $“Overweight” rating with a target price of $307.“Starting from the low in the second quarter, Microsoft is expected to achieve accelerated growth in earnings per share for five quarters. We have seen opportunities to increase our holdings of Microsoft shares. In our opinion, the current stock price level is seriously underestimated.”
18. Morgan Stanley$Motorola Solutions (MSI.US) $“Overweight” rating with a target price of $260.“The LMR (Land Mobile Radio) /Push-To-Talk (Push-To-Talk) market is expected to continue to grow for several years, and the entry threshold is high. We believe Motorola has an attractive competitive position in its core market. We are also optimistic about Motorola's ability to optimize around this market position and generate cash for stock repurchases/dividends.”
19. Morgan Stanley$MSCI Inc (MSCI.US) $“Overweight” rating, target price of $543.“Thanks to the strong outlook and execution of the index industry, the company's anticipated organic growth rate is as high as 12%, far higher than the 7.5% of the other stocks we cover.”
20. Morgan Stanley$New Era Energy (NEE.US) $“Overweight” rating, target price $97.“We think New Era Energy is expected to be one of the leaders in building these new markets and reaping attractive low risk rewards.”
21. Morgan Stanley$Nike (NKE.US) $“Overweight” rating, target price of $140.“We expect the DTC strategy to drive revenue growth, and profitability is also expected to improve.”
22. Morgan Stanley$Northrop Grumman (NOC.US) $“Overweight” rating, target price of $601.“Northrop Grumman plans to return more than 100% of FCF to shareholders in 2023, and we expect its best-in-class management team to continue running shareholder-friendly capital strategies until at least 2025.”
23. Morgan Stanley$Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL.US) $“Overweight” rating, target price of $340.“The company's key strengths include advantages of scale, having more real estate business than peers, and investing in growth through cycles and excellent management, which have driven the company to achieve a best-in-class track record.”
24. Morgan Stanley$Ambo (PLD.US) $“Overweight” rating, target price of $128.“A favorable supply/demand dynamic should insulate Ambo from the macroeconomic slowdown.”
25. Morgan Stanley$Thor Technology (RTX.US) $“Overweight” rating with a target price of $115.“We think higher defense spending provides prospects for many years of growth, although this growth will take time to materialize.”
26. Morgan Stanley$Thermo Fisher Price (TMO.US) $“Overweight” rating, target price of $670.“We are convinced that Thermo Fisher has the ability to surpass peers and end markets, thanks to increased exposure to high-growth vertical industries (particularly biopharmaceuticals) and regional markets (including China), as well as the breadth and depth of its portfolio to help drive revenue growth.”
27. Morgan Stanley$T-Mobile US (TMUS.US) $“Overweight” rating, target price of $175.“Continued synergies and growing scale will enable the company to expand the service business EBITDA margin to 55% over the long term, compared to 43% in 2022.”
28. Morgan Stanley$UnitedHealth (UNH.US) $“Overweight” rating, target price of $587.“We believe the elasticity of UnitedHealth's diversified business in health insurance, medical services, pharmacy services, and data analytics will generate long-term double-digit revenue growth. The company is also a well-known brand in the highly defensive managed care (MCO) industry.”
29. Morgan Stanley$Visa (V.US) $“Overweight” rating, target price of $288.“The trend of digitalization (mobile commerce and e-commerce) over the years should make Visa grow more than global personal consumption spending, and rising inflation should benefit its business. 2/3 of the company's revenue is related to transaction volume.”
30. Morgan Stanley$Yum Restaurant (YUM.US) $“Overweight” rating, target price of $155.“Broadly speaking, brand positioning, menus, and stores are well-positioned, and digital channels have been established to help KFC and Pizza Hut compete in any economic environment and in any country.”
Editor/jayden
