据公司年报，22 年公司钢材产、销量分别984、975 万吨（yoy-5.4%、-6.3%），整体毛利率10.75%（yoy-0.93pct）。公司下游应用较为分散，且主要偏向于基建及制造业，22 年基础设施占比17%、船舶与海工占比16%，新能源与油气、工程机械与轨交、汽车轴承弹簧均占比15%左右。2023 年以来，基建与制造业表现好于地产，带动板材需求率先恢复，在五大材中表现较为突出。此外，公司出口接单98 万吨，供货量65 万吨，同比增长29%，好于行业平均的0.9%，出口表现较为出色。Net profit returned to the mother in '22 fell 48.59% year on year, maintaining the “buy” rating
The company achieved revenue of 70.667 billion yuan in '22 (yoy -7.69%, comparable caliber), net profit of 2,161 million yuan (yoy -48.59%, comparable caliber); 22Q4 net profit of 85 million yuan (yoy -86.41%, qoq -85.54%). Considering that the increase in iron ore prices is higher than steel prices, we expect the company's EPS to be 0.42/0.50/0.58 yuan in 23-25 (previous value 0.73/0.89/-yuan). Comparable company Wind agreed that the average PE (2023E) value was 7.33X. Considering the continuous improvement of the company's product structure and the continuous extension of the superimposed industry chain, the company was given 10.4 times the PE valuation in 23 years, corresponding target price 4.37 yuan (previous value 3.78 yuan), maintaining the “buy” rating.
Downstream applications are scattered, and plate demand took the lead in recovering in '23
According to the company's annual report, the company's steel production and sales volume in '22 were 984,975 million tons (yoy -5.4%, -6.3%) respectively, and the overall gross profit margin was 10.75% (yoy-0.93pct). The company's downstream applications are scattered, and are mainly biased towards infrastructure and manufacturing. In '22, infrastructure accounted for 17%, ships and offshore industries accounted for 16%, and new energy and oil and gas, construction machinery and rail transit, and automobile bearing springs all accounted for about 15%. Since 2023, infrastructure and manufacturing have performed better than real estate, driving demand for sheets to recover first, and the performance is outstanding among the five major materials. In addition, the company received 980,000 tons of export orders, with a supply volume of 650,000 tons, an increase of 29% over the previous year, better than the industry average of 0.9%, and the export performance was excellent.
The balance ratio has increased, and the 22-year cash dividend ratio is 71.3%
The company's cost rate for the 22-year period was 6.47% (yoy+1.43pct). Among them, the company adhered to the strategy of “production generation, reserve generation, R&D generation” and insisted on R&D investment, and the R&D expenditure rate in 22 was 3.27% (yoy+0.45pct). The company's balance ratio in '22 was 58.83% (yoy+5.77pct). Both long-term and short-term loans increased. The main reason was that the company still invested capital in mergers and acquisitions of the Baizhong environment and the Indonesian coke project, but the company maintained good solvency, with a 22-year rapid ratio of 0.65 (yoy+0.02pct).
Furthermore, in '22, the company plans to pay a cash dividend of 0.25 yuan per share, a dividend rate of 71.3%, and a dividend rate of 6.54% (based on the closing price of 3.28).
Adhere to the industrial operation+industrial investment strategy and focus on the “four yuan and one chain” layout
In terms of new materials, the company sold 2,065,800 tons of advanced steel materials in '22 (yoy +14.06%), accounting for 21.19% of total steel sales (yoy+3.78pct), gross profit margin of 15.88% (yoy-1.67pct), product structure continued to be optimized; in the field of environmental protection, the company acquired Baizhong Environment in '22; in the field of intelligent manufacturing, the company owned 100% of Jinheng Technology's shares and 52% of Jinyu Intelligence's shares; in the industrial Internet field, the company had a layout in the supply chain, smart factories, e-commerce platforms, etc. At the same time, the company has set up investment funds to participate in the semiconductor, new energy, aerospace and other sectors to seize development opportunities in strategic emerging industries. In addition, the company has deployed 6.5 million tons of Indonesian coke projects upstream, and achieved sales of 297,900 tons of coke in '22. As projects are completed and put into operation one after another, profits are expected to increase further in the future.
Risk warning: downstream demand fell short of expectations, raw material prices fluctuated greatly, and project progress fell short of expectations.