Nomura In-depth Report: Global demand for automotive power batteries will increase 18% per year in the next five years, and prices will drop 3% per year

Wallstreet News · Mar 28, 2023 21:02

来源：华尔街见闻

伴随着全球政策和措施的推动，电动汽车电池领域正在迎来前所未有的发展前景。

当前，世界各国分别颁布了促进电动汽车产业发展的法案和措施，力图扩大电动汽车产业和供应链在其本土的发展。在政策的刺激下，野村证券分析师Cindy Park、Yu Okazaki等人在3月21日发表的报告中指出，未来五年内，全球电动汽车电池需求将以每年18%的速度增长，2028年达到1647GWh，2030年达到2107GWh。

野村证券表示，随着中国电动汽车补贴的逐步退出，叠加今年一季度供应链去库存，中国电动汽车行业在今年将处于一个适度增长的环境。

同时，由于宁德时代等行业领导者采取战略性降价，电池市场竞争可能加剧，国内市场价格也将进一步下降。

野村证券预计，2030年动力电池平均售价将为136美元/kWh，同比下降9％，这主要是因为原材料价格的下跌。野村证券认为，随着成本降低行动的推进，从2024年开始，动力电池价格将每年下降3%，直到2030年。

此外，碳酸锂价格进入下行通道，也将有助于缓解电池制造商的利润压力。

2030年全球动力电池需求达2107GWh

野村预测，2023-2030年，全球电动汽车（包括纯电动/插电混合动力车辆）的电池需求将以17%的年增速增长；到2030年，动力电池需求将达到2107GWh，这是基于电动汽车渗透率将在2030年达到34.6%的基础上推算的：

我们预测，2023年电动汽车电池需求将同比增长43%至706GWh，2023-2028年和2023-2030年的年均增长率分别为18%和17%，到2028年和2030年时分别达到1647GWh和2107GWh。
这基于2023年、2028年和2030年全球电动汽车渗透率分别为15.8%、29.8%和34.6%（2022年为11.8%）或2023年电动汽车出货量为1370万辆。
2023年1月至2月，15个国家的电动汽车出货量同比增长24%，达到140万辆，其中中国、美国和欧洲十国同比增长19%、94%和5%。中国、美国和欧洲十国占全球电动汽车出货量的59%、16%和21%。

具体而言，野村证券预计，2030年全球新能源汽车（包括混合动力汽车、纯电动汽车、插电式混合动力汽车和燃料电池汽车）销量将达到6450万辆，电动汽车（包括纯电动/插电混合动力车辆）销售量将达到3560万辆：

我们的全球汽车团队预测，新能源汽车的销售量将在2025F/30F达到3590万辆/6450万辆。电动汽车的销售量将达到2020万辆/3560万辆，市场份额为22.0%/34.6%。

产能方面，截至2022年底，全球动力电池产能为1205GWh，出货量为497GWh，野村预计到2030年底，全球产能将增长至5419GWh，这意味着在2022年至2030F期间，产能增长率为21％，同时地区之间的产能也将发生变化：

按地区划分，2023F中国/中国以外的亚洲/北美/欧洲应占全球电池产能的73％/5％/6％/16％，根据我们的估计，这将在2030F年发生变化，变为52％/4％/17％/27％。

电池价格从2023年开始下降

野村证券表示，随着原材料金属价格下降，电池的平均价格将在2023年出现下降，预计降幅为9%：

对于我们覆盖的七家电池制造商——松下、宁德时代、LGES、SK On、三星SDI、亿纬锂能和国轩高科——我们预测，2023年平均售价为136美元/kWh，同比下降9%。
据我们估计，由于大幅度的金属价格上涨，2022年平均价格上涨了13%。2022年，碳酸锂/镍价格的平均值分别为71653美元/吨、26187美元/吨，同比上涨287%/42%。
对于2023F，我们估计ASP（平均售价）将下降9%，因为我们认为这些金属价格会下降。
不过，今年迄今为止，一些正极材料制造商表示他们的ASP已经上涨。从2024F开始，我们预测，电动汽车电池价格将每年下降3%，直到2030F，作为成本削减的一部分。

此外，野村表示，由于车企都希望降低成本，所有电池制造商也都面临着降低成本和平均售价的压力。例如，特斯拉在2023年3月的投资者日上表示，它计划通过规模增长、更高的生产率/开销效率/供应商规模、产品改进、工程变更和本地化将成本降低50%。

野村证券认为，这些目标应当是电动汽车行业的共同愿景，而不仅仅是特斯拉的相关愿景。

就覆盖的七家电池企业而言，野村证券表示，就算未来电池价格下降，中国的电池企业预计仍将保持竞争力：

2022年七家公司的平均运营利润率为1.6％，我们预测这一数字将在2023F / 25F分别上升至5.1％/ 7.1％。
我们估计，2022年三家韩国电池公司（LGES，SDI，SK On）的平均价格比中国电池制造商（宁德时代，比亚迪（未覆盖），亿纬锂能，国轩高科）高44％。由于50-60％的中国电池生产基于低成本LFP，因此中国的平均电池价格低于韩国/日本的电池价格。
这种具有竞争力的价格以及高于行业平均水平的盈利能力推动了强劲的电池需求和供应增长。虽然我们预计这种价格差距在各国之间将持续存在，但利润率可能会在未来几年收敛。

电池技术：更高能量密度、更长寿命和更好的热稳定性

就动力电池的技术路线而言，野村证券认为，动力电池正向着更高能量密度、更长的寿命和更好的热稳定性迁移：

我们预计2023年NCM/NCMA EV电池的能量密度将达到720-750Wh/L（280-310Wh/kg），在2025年之后，预计能量密度将向800Wh/L（320Wh/kg）迁移。
此外，我们认为阳极中的硅混合物有潜力从目前的约5%上升至5-8%（NCM）。

至于磷酸铁锂电池，野村估计当下其能量密度为约150Wh/kg，目标是在未来几年内朝着800Wh/L（超过320Wh/kg）的方向发展，以便为电动汽车提供每次充电约600-700km的行驶里程和不到15分钟的充电时间：

为了实现这一目标，我们估计需要镍含量超过90%的阴极、约10%的硅石墨和厚度小于9微米的湿式隔膜。

锂/镍价：2023/2024F预计下降

野村证券认为，鉴于锂近年来的供给增长超过了需求增长，预计2023/2024锂价将同比下降35％/20％；镍的供给小幅增加，价格可能也将持平或上涨。

我们估计，全球锂矿供应在2022-2025年间将以33％的年复合率增长，这是由现有产能的扩张和新项目的投产所推动的，这将超过同期我们估计的18％的锂需求年复合增长率。
更平衡的供需情况将为锂价提供更多的下降空间，预计2023/24年将同比下降35％/20％。
我们仍然相信，电气化趋势在汽车行业中将保持强劲，而锂价格的正常化应该为电动汽车供应链提供了进一步的成本优化空间。

受电动汽车电池需求激增推动，锂价格在2021年下半年至2022年上半年间显著上涨。到2022年6月底，锂价格达到每吨71376美元（同比增长401%）。在整个2022年，锂价格一直保持高位，并在12月中旬达到最高点，每吨81412美元。2023年1月和2月，锂价格环比分别下降了7%和13%。

野村证券表示，这主要归因于主要采矿商的锂采矿量增加，缓解了供应紧张，以及2023年初电动汽车需求下降。

此外，虽然受电动汽车热潮和2021-22年锂价格上涨的推动，全球锂精炼市场将变得更加分散。野村证券仍然认为，拥有高质量矿产资源和较低生产成本的领先锂生产商应该保持其具有高端客户和更好盈利能力的竞争优势。

因此，野村证券预计，在2022-25年间，全球锂精炼能力将以26％的年复合增长率增长，从2022年的106.4万吨碳酸锂当量扩大到2025年的212万吨碳酸锂当量。

镍价方面，由于镍产品根据纯度分为不同等级，而一级镍是生产用于电池制造的硫酸镍的唯一合适原料，生产成本往往较高，野村证券预计中期内，高质量的镍供应可能会短缺。

2022上半年，受地缘问题影响，镍价出现暴涨，2022年底达到了每吨29886美元，较2022年7月上涨55％。

不过，尽管镍价目前仍然保持在较高水平，由于电动汽车需求疲软和全球产量增加，截至2023年3月3日，镍价下跌至24358美元。

野村证券表示，由于低纯度镍的精炼，来自印度尼西亚的后续矿高纯度镍的生产将增加。

编辑/ruby

Source: Wall Street News

Driven by global policies and measures, the field of electric vehicle batteries is ushering in unprecedented development prospects.

Currently, countries around the world have enacted separate laws and measures to promote the development of the electric vehicle industry in an effort to expand the development of the electric vehicle industry and supply chain in their own regions. Stimulated by the policy, Nomura Securities analysts Cindy Park, Yu Okazaki and others pointed out in a report published on March 21,In the next five years, global demand for electric vehicle batteries will grow at an annual rate of 18%, reaching 1647 GWh in 2028 and 2107 GWh in 2030.

Nomura Securities said that with the gradual withdrawal of China's electric vehicle subsidies and the removal of inventory from the supply chain in the first quarter of this year, China's electric vehicle industry will be in a moderate growth environment this year.

At the same time, as industry leaders such as the Ningde Era adopt strategic price cuts, competition in the battery market may intensify, and prices in the domestic market will drop further.

Nomura Securities predicts,The average selling price of power batteries in 2030 will be $136/kWh, down 9% year on year, mainly due to falling raw material prices.Nomura Securities believes that as cost reduction actions advance,Starting in 2024, the price of power batteries will drop by 3% every year until 2030.

Furthermore, lithium carbonate prices entering a downward channel will also help ease the profit pressure on battery manufacturers.

Global demand for power batteries will reach 2107 GWh in 2030

Nomura predicts,In 2023-2030, global battery demand for electric vehicles (including pure electric/plug-in hybrid vehicles) will grow at an annual rate of 17%; by 2030, demand for power batteries will reach 2107 GWh.This is estimated based on the fact that the penetration rate of electric vehicles will reach 34.6% by 2030:

We forecast that demand for electric vehicle batteries will increase 43% year-on-year to 706 GWh in 2023, average annual growth rates of 18% and 17% in 2023-2028 and 2023-2030, respectively, and reach 1647 GWh and 2107 GWh by 2028 and 2030, respectively.
This is based on global electric vehicle penetration rates of 15.8%, 29.8%, and 34.6% in 2023, 2028, and 2030 (11.8% in 2022), or 13.7 million electric vehicle shipments in 2023.
From January to February 2023, shipments of electric vehicles to 15 countries increased 24% year on year to 1.4 million units. Among them, China, the US, and 10 European countries increased 19%, 94%, and 5% year on year. China, the US, and ten European countries account for 59%, 16%, and 21% of global electric vehicle shipments.

Specifically, Nomura Securities anticipates,Global sales of new energy vehicles (including hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and fuel cell vehicles) will reach 64.5 million units by 2030, and sales of electric vehicles (including pure electric/plug-in hybrid vehicles) will reach 35.6 million units:

Our global automotive team predicts that sales of new energy vehicles will reach 35.9 million units/64.5 million units in 2025F/30F. The sales volume of electric vehicles will reach 2020 million units/35.6 million units, with a market share of 22.0%/34.6%.

In terms of production capacity, by the end of 2022, the global power battery production capacity will be 1205 GWh and the shipping volume will be 497 GWh. Nomura expectsBy the end of 2030, global production capacity will grow to 5419GWh, which means that between 2022 and 2030F, the capacity growth rate will be 21%At the same time, production capacity between regions will also change:

By region, 2023F China/Asia/North America/Europe other than China should account for 73%/5%/6%/16% of global battery production capacity. According to our estimates, this will change in 2030F to 52%/4%/17%/27%.

Battery prices will start falling in 2023

Nomura Securities said that as the price of raw materials and metals falls, the average price of batteries will fall in 2023, and is expected to fall by 9%:

For the seven battery manufacturers we cover — Panasonic, Ningde Times, LGES, SK On, Samsung SDI, Yiwi Lithium, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech — we forecast an average sales price of $136 per kWh in 2023, down 9% year over year.
According to our estimates, the average price increased 13% in 2022 due to a sharp rise in metal prices. In 2022, the average price of lithium carbonate/nickel carbonate was 71,653 US dollars/ton and 26,187 US dollars/ton, respectively, up 287%/42% from the previous year.
For 2023F, we estimate that ASP (average selling price) will drop 9% because we think the prices of these metals will drop.
However, so far this year, some cathode material manufacturers have indicated that their ASP has risen. Starting with 2024F, we predict,Electric vehicle battery prices will drop 3% per year until 2030F, as part of cost reductions.

Furthermore, Nomura said that since car companies want to reduce costs, all battery manufacturers are also under pressure to reduce costs and average selling prices. For example, Tesla said on Investors Day in March 2023 that it plans to reduce costs by 50% through scale growth, higher productivity/cost efficiency/supplier size, product improvements, engineering changes, and localization.

Nomura Securities believes thatThese goals should be the shared vision of the electric vehicle industry, not just Tesla's related vision.

As far as the seven battery companies covered are concerned, Nomura Securities said,Even if battery prices fall in the future, Chinese battery companies are expected to remain competitive:

The average operating margin for the seven companies in 2022 was 1.6%, and we forecast this figure to rise to 5.1%/7.1% in 2023F/25F, respectively.
We estimateThe average price of the three Korean battery companies (LGES, SDI, SK On) in 2022 was 44% higher than that of Chinese battery manufacturers (Ningde Era, BYD (not covered), Yiwi Lithium Energy, Guoxuan Hi-Tech). Since 50-60% of China's battery production is based on low-cost LFP, the average battery price in China is lower than that of Korea/Japan.
This competitive price and higher than industry average profitability have driven strong battery demand and supply growth.While we expect this price gap to persist across countries, profit margins are likely to subside over the next few years.

Battery technology: higher energy density, longer life, and better thermal stability

As far as the technical route of power batteries is concerned, Nomura Securities believes that power batteries are moving towards higher energy density, longer life, and better thermal stability:

We expect the energy density of NCM/NCMA EV batteries to reach 720-750Wh/L (280-310Wh/kg) in 2023,After 2025, the energy density is expected to shift to 800 Wh/L (320 Wh/kg).
Furthermore, we think the silicon mixture in the anode has the potential to rise to 5-8% (NCM) from around 5% now.

As for lithium iron phosphate batteries, Nomura estimates that the current energy density is about 150 Wh/kg.The goal is to move in the direction of 800 Wh/L (more than 320 Wh/kg) within the next few years,To provide electric vehicles with a driving range of around 600-700 km per charge and a charging time of less than 15 minutes:

To achieve this goal, we estimate that cathodes containing more than 90% nickel, about 10% silicon-graphite, and wet diaphragms less than 9 microns thick are needed.

Lithium/nickel prices: 2023/2024F is expected to decline

Nomura Securities believes that since the increase in lithium supply in recent years has exceeded the increase in demand, the 2023/2024 lithium price is expected to fall 35%/ 20% year-on-year; with a slight increase in nickel supply, prices may also remain flat or rise.

We estimate,Global lithium supply will grow at a compound annual rate of 33% between 2022-2025, driven by the expansion of existing production capacity and the commissioning of new projects, which will exceed our estimated 18% compound annual growth rate of lithium demand over the same period.
A more balanced supply and demand situation will provide more room for lithium prices to decline, which is expected to fall 35%/20% year over year in 2023/24.
We still believe that the trend of electrification will remain strong in the automotive industry, and that the normalization of lithium prices should provide room for further cost optimization in the electric vehicle supply chain.

Driven by a surge in demand for electric vehicle batteries, lithium prices rose significantly from the second half of 2021 to the first half of 2022. By the end of June 2022, the price of lithium reached 71,376 US dollars per ton (up 401% year over year). Lithium prices remained high throughout 2022, reaching a peak of $81,412 per ton in mid-December. Lithium prices fell 7% and 13% month-on-month in January and February 2023, respectively.

Nomura Securities said this was mainly due to increased lithium mining by major miners, easing supply constraints, and falling demand for electric vehicles in early 2023.

Furthermore, the global lithium refining market will become more fragmented, although driven by the electric vehicle boom and the increase in lithium prices in 2021-22. Nomura Securities still believes that leading lithium producers with high-quality mineral resources and lower production costs should maintain their competitive advantage with high-end customers and better profitability.

As a result, Nomura Securities expectsIn 2022-25, global lithium refining capacity will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 26%, from 1,064 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2022 to 2.12 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2025.

In terms of nickel prices, since nickel products are classified into different grades according to purity, and grade 1 nickel is the only suitable raw material for producing nickel sulfate used in battery manufacturing, production costs are often high. Nomura Securities expects that there may be a shortage of high-quality nickel supply in the medium term.

In the first half of 2022, due to geological issues, nickel prices skyrocketed, reaching $29,886 per ton at the end of 2022, up 55 percent from July 2022.

However, although nickel prices are still at a high level, nickel prices have fallen to $24,358 as of March 3, 2023 due to weak demand for electric vehicles and increased global production.

Nomura Securities said production of high-purity nickel from subsequent mines in Indonesia will increase due to refining of low-purity nickel.

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野村深度报告：未来五年全球车用动力电池需求每年将增长18%，价格将每年下降3%