Key points of investment
The company discloses its 2022 report. Revenue was reached 3,947 million yuan, -19.75% year on year, net profit returned to the mother was 211 million yuan, -22.46% year on year, net profit returned to the mother after deduction was 184 million yuan, -23.41% year on year. Among them, the fourth quarter alone achieved revenue of 889 million yuan, a year-on-year ratio of -34.43%, and a net profit of 0.1 million yuan to the mother, -96.34% year-on-year, and -123.58% year-on-year, mainly due to asset impairment losses of -51 million yuan in the fourth quarter, -570.76% compared to the previous year, and credit impairment losses - 20 million yuan, -3.47% year-on-year.
The company achieved a comprehensive gross profit margin of 21.59% in 2022, +3.32pct over the same period last year. 1) On a quarterly basis, Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 achieved gross profit margins of 20.01%, 20.35%, 20.97%, and 25.44%, respectively, compared to the same period last year: -0.15, +2.34, +3.35, and +7.53 percentage points respectively; 2) By product, the gross margins of the company's new additive materials and technical services were 22.44% and 33.57%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +3.49pct and +2.26pct respectively.
The company's expenses during 2022 accounted for 13.95%, +2.53 percentage points over the same period last year. The sales expense ratio was 4.84%, +0.66 percentage points over the previous year; 2) the management expenses rate was 4.02%, +0.69 percentage points over the previous year; 3) the financial expenses rate was 0.33%, +0.24 percentage points over the previous year; 4) the R&D expenses rate was 4.76%, +0.94 percentage points over the previous year. The company's balance ratio at the end of the period was 42.43%, -3.97pct over the previous year. Short-term loans were 0.05 million (226 million in the same period in '21), a year-on-year decrease of 97.99%, and long-term loans were 507 million (0 million in the same period in '21).
The company's net operating cash flow in 2022 was 420 million yuan, +98 million yuan over the same period last year; net operating cash flow per share was 0.59 yuan, +0.14 yuan/share over the same period last year. 1) On a quarterly basis, the company's net operating cash flows per share for Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 were 0.00 yuan, 0.20 yuan, 0.02 yuan, and 0.36 yuan respectively, compared with the same period last year of +0.15, +0.24, -0.34, and +0.08 yuan/share; 2) From the perspective of the payout ratio, the company's revenue and payout ratios in 2022 were 105.32% and 111.30%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. 3) In terms of cash flow, net cash flow from operating activities was 420 million yuan, +30.60% year on year; net cash flow from investment activities was 412 million yuan, -800.12% year on year; net cash flow from financing activities was 0.660.7 million yuan, +75.32% year on year.
Profit forecast: We expect net profit to be 2.64, 315, and 376 million yuan respectively for 2023-2025, EPS of 0.37, 0.44, and 0.53 yuan respectively, and the dynamic PE corresponding to the stock price on March 27 will be 17.9, 15.0, and 12.6X respectively, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning: fluctuations in raw material prices; macroeconomic fluctuations; increased market competition; downstream demand falls short of expectations; production progress falls short of expectations; risk of product price fluctuations