On November 4, Anhui Natural Gas announced that it planned to issue convertible bonds online on November 8, 2021. The fund raised this time was 930 million yuan. After deducting the issuance expenses, it was proposed to use 750 million yuan to be used for the Liu'an-Huoqiu-Yingshang trunk line project, with a total investment of 795 million yuan. It is proposed to use 180 million yuan to supplement the natural gas project construction and operation capital project, with a total investment of 180 million yuan.
Wantian convertible bonds are issued by priority placement and online issuance, debt and main rating AA+. The issue size is 930 million yuan, the initial conversion price is 11.12 yuan, with reference to the closing price of 11.00 yuan on November 4, the parity price of convertible bonds is 98.92 yuan, and the maturity yield of corporate bonds of the same maturity and rating (November 3, 2021) is 2.31%. The maturity redemption price is 110 yuan, and the value of pure debt is 92.21 yuan. Generally speaking, the bond issuance scale is general, the liquidity is general, the rating is OK, and the debt bottom protection is general. The terms of the game are well-regulated, the lower terms are more strict ("15x30jie 80%"), the redemption clause ("15Accord 30130%") and the resale clause ("30Universe 30% 70%") are all normal.
Convertible bonds target price of 100-104 yuan on the first day, it is recommended to actively apply for purchase. As of November 4, 2021, Wantian convertible bond parity is 98.92 yuan, reference comparable convertible bond Foneng convertible bond (rating AA+, continuing bond balance 1.277 billion yuan, parity 231.01, convertible bond price 227.77, conversion premium 1.42%) and Wei 20 convertible bond (rating AA, continuing bond balance 1.081 billion yuan, parity 124.60, convertible bond price 129.08, conversion premium rate 3.60%) The valuation of Wantian convertible bonds refers to the valuation level of Funeng Hewei 20 convertible bonds. The conversion premium rate of Wantian convertible bonds on the first day of listing should be in the range of [1% 4%], and the target price of convertible bonds on the first day of listing is around 100-104 yuan.
We judge that: 1, the bond issuance scale is average, the liquidity is general, the rating is OK, the debt bottom protection is general, the organization storage is not difficult, the first level participation has no objection; 2, the market demand repairs gradually, the domestic demand of the product rises suddenly, the market prospect is good; 3, the company's revenue has increased steadily in recent years, and the company's profitability has also improved due to the high demand in the first half of the year. 4. the rate of period expenses decreases gradually after 2019, and the scale effect begins to appear.
Comprehensive analysis, we expect Wantian convertible bonds listed on the first day of the conversion premium rate of 1% Murray 4%, the corresponding price is around 100-104 yuan, it is recommended to actively apply for purchase.
It is estimated that the rate of winning new lottery on the first day is around 0.0024% to 0.0034%. We assume that the placement ratio of the old shareholders is 65% to 75%, then the scale of Wantian convertible bonds left to the market is 233 million yuan to 326 million yuan.
At present, Wantian convertible bonds set priority placement and online issuance, with reference to the recently issued Bailun convertible bonds (AA, issuance scale 1.128 billion yuan) and Saiwu convertible bonds (AA-, issuance scale 700 million yuan), the number of valid online applications is about 9.83 million households / 9.56 million households. It is assumed that the effective number of Wantian convertible bonds online is 9.69 million, and the success rate is around 0.0024% to 0.0034%.
Risk hints: policy change risk, natural gas and natural gas freight price change risk