Global macroscopic
Futures on the three major stock indexes rose sharply before the US stock market on Monday
Counting down to the US recession: is the US debt being inverted more frightening than the inversion itself?
The deepening of the inversion itself after the inversion of the US bond yield curve has occurred is not the most frightening thing. When the inversion of the US bond yield curve peaks and is rapidly reversed, it is possible to truly indicate that the pace of economic recession is getting closer to people. As shown in the chart below, before or during the actual recessions in the US economy, the direction in which the US bond yield curve operated without exception quickly came out of reverse.
After traders drastically cut their bets on the Fed's further interest rate hike this year and raised interest rate cut expectations sharply, the US bond yield curve is expected to record the fastest steep pace since 2008/10 this month — the inversion between 2-year US Treasury yields and 10-year US Treasury yields, which has now narrowed sharply to about 40 basis points.
Is the market betting that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates in May? But this data may shatter the illusions of the outside world
Under the pressure of the US banking crisis, the market is increasingly speculating that the Federal Reserve may suspend interest rate hikes in May. However, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index to be released this Friday may shatter the market's illusions. According to market expectations, the US PCE price index may still be high in February. This may suggest that the inflationary pressure faced by the Federal Reserve will still be difficult to reduce in the short term, and I'm afraid hopes of suspending interest rate hikes may still be dashed.
Is the banking crisis unstoppable central bank's austerity? Daimo: Fighting inflation still comes first, even if it's costly
Morgan Stanley's chief global economist Seth Carpenter said in an article on Monday local time that the idea of stabilizing financial markets at the expense of price stability is a “false dichotomy” and that fighting inflation remains a priority for central banks. Carpenter believes that although the central bank's austerity policies have interfered with the banking industry to a certain extent, in an ideal situation, central banks will discuss matters and use different tools to deal with macroeconomic issues and financial stability issues.
Wall Street is intensively warning: US commercial real estate is the next thunderbolt
Commercial real estate in the US may be the next industry to storm after the banking crisis. Nearly trillion dollars of debt due in the next two years, and the possibility that small banks will follow the larger banks in tightening their loan exposure, have all increased the pressure on commercial real estate. Currently, more and more major Wall Street banks are warning of this disastrous outlook, including investment banks such as Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan Chase, and Credit Suisse.
Legendary investor: “All bubbles” are bursting, and the S&P 500 index is likely to plummet 50%
Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham, who has successfully predicted three market bubbles, recently issued a warning that as “all bubbles” burst, the S&P 500 index could plummet 50%. He pointed out that during the pandemic, the prices of stocks, bonds, homes, works of art and other assets soared to exciting highs, paving the way for a historic collapse and painful recession.
Daimo's “big short”: Listed companies' excessive profit expectations are a big disadvantage for US stocks
Michael Wilson, a famous Wall Street bearish and Morgan Stanley strategist, said on Monday that the turmoil in the banking industry has caused the profit guidelines of listed companies to seem too high, which may put US stocks at risk of a sharp decline. Wilson wrote in a report on Monday, “Given the events of the past few weeks, we think profit guidance seems increasingly unrealistic. Prices in the stock market are likely to be drastically lowered before the hard data changes.”
Another risk of the US banking crisis: the government debt crisis may accelerate
In addition to the sharp increase in liquidity risk in the banking sector itself, Brian Gardner, chief Washington policy strategist at Stifel, a well-known US investment firm, warned that banking turmoil may also accelerate the advent of the US debt ceiling problem. He pointed out that due to the crisis in the banking sector, the scale of credit will shrink, and the entire US economy will cool down, which will limit the government's revenue. Gardener expects that the critical point of the debt ceiling will come a little earlier, but there will be no extreme situations several months ahead of schedule.
Hot news
Most of Star Technology's stocks rose before the market
US regional bank stocks continued to rise before the market, and First Republic Bank rose nearly 42%
$First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA.US)$An increase of nearly 41%,$First Republic Bank (FRC.US)$An increase of nearly 28%,$Silvergate Capital (SI.US)$An increase of more than 12%,$PacWest Bancorp (PACW.US)$An increase of more than 10%. People familiar with the matter revealed that the US authorities are considering expanding emergency loan facilities in the banking sector to give Bank First Republic more time to consolidate its balance sheet.
Finalized! FDIC: First Citizens Bank Takes Over All Silicon Valley Bank Deposits and Loans
The US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced on Monday (3/27)$First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA.US)$Will take over$SVB Financial (SIVB.US)$Of all the deposits and loans, this may calm market sentiment after the recent collapse of the banking industry. The statement stated that the 17 former branches of the Bank of Silicon Valley will be owned by First Citizen Bank and Trust Company on March 27, 2023 (Monday), and that the original depositors of the Bank of Silicon Valley will henceforth be the depositors of First Citizens Bank and will also be protected by the FDIC.
CDS prices fell, and Deutsche Bank rose before the market
$Deutsche Bank (DB.US)$Stock prices rebounded on Monday. According to CMAQ pricing, Deutsche Bank's 5-year priority CDS spread fell from 226.9 basis points last Friday to 198.6 basis points on Monday. As of press release, Deutsche Bank's US stock price rose more than 4% before the market. The cost of debt default insurance (CDS) fell after analysts tried to reassure the market that Deutsche Bank's financial health was good.
Reach your goal ahead of schedule again! Tesla's Berlin Gigafactory produces more than 5,000 vehicles a week
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The rise in production capacity at the Berlin plant is remarkable. Just a month ago, Tesla announced that its Model Y had reached a weekly production capacity of 4,000 vehicles; according to Tesla's news on March 25, the weekly production of Model Y had already exceeded 5,000 vehicles, which was far ahead of the original plan. According to the original production plan, Tesla plans to increase production at the Berlin plant to 4,000 vehicles during the week of March 13, and increase production to more than 5,000 vehicles by the end of June.
Novartis Pharmaceuticals' targeted anti-cancer drug Kisqali combined to treat early stage breast cancer phase 3 clinical trial reached the main end point
pursuant$Novartis AG (NVS.US)$According to the statement, compared with standard-adjuvant endocrine therapy alone, Kisqali combined endocrine therapy significantly reduced the risk of disease recurrence. Regardless of whether lymph nodes were involved or not, patients with stage 2 and stage 3 early-stage breast cancer were equally beneficial. As of press release, Novartis Pharmaceuticals' US stock rose more than 6% before the market on Monday.
Focus on China Securities
The rise and fall of popular Chinese securities was mixed before the market
Baidu Wenxin upgraded in one word, and the enterprise-level big model service platform “Wenxin Qianfan” was released today
$Baidu (BIDU.US)$The “Wenxin Qianfan” big model platform was officially launched. This is Baidu's platform for providing customers with enterprise-level big language model services. According to information, the Wenxin Qianfan model platform not only includes Wen Xin's words, but also Baidu's full set of Wenxin models and the corresponding development tool chain. In the future, Wenxin Qianfan will also support big open source models from third parties. In the live real-time demonstration, Wenxin Qianfan can perform operations such as PPT, digital live streaming of goods, and booking air tickets and hotels in three minutes.
Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks
US stock macro calendar reminder:
22:30 Dallas Federal Reserve Business Activity Index
The next day
01:00 Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks at the London School of Economics
05:00 Federal Reserve Governor Jefferson Speaks on Monetary Policy
Edit/Ruby