大环保业务规模持续扩容，风电项目贡献增量收入2022年公司清洁能源业务实现收入8.08亿元，同比增长13.32%，主要系2021年四季度并表中卫甘塘和永城助能风电项目贡献增量。2022年6月，公司增持深汕乾泰13.33%股权至63.33%，进军拆车及电池综合利用业务，2022年该项业务实现收入3.92亿元，占营业收入比例为4.2%。Incidents:
On March 24, the company released its 2022 annual report. In 2022, the company achieved annual revenue of 9.373 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.93%, and the net profit of its mother was 2,014 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.92%. Among them, the first to fourth quarters of 2022 achieved revenue of 1,773/23.21/2,552/2,726 billion yuan respectively, and net profit of the mother was 413/4.36/1,164/101 million yuan respectively. In 2022, the company paid a cash dividend of 0.462 yuan per share. After excluding payable perpetual bond investment income, the dividend rate was 55.13%, and the corresponding dividend rate was 5.14%.
Toll revenue declined year-on-year, and the Outer Ring Expressway achieved the only positive increase in 2022. Due to the epidemic, passenger and cargo traffic in the Shenzhen-Hong Kong region declined, compounded by the impact of toll reduction policies, and the company's toll revenue fell 15.52% year-on-year. Among the road production controlled by the company, only the Outer Ring Expressway recorded positive revenue growth. It achieved revenue of 950 million yuan in 2022, an increase of 10.84% over the previous year. The main reason was that Outer Ring Phase II was officially opened to traffic in January 2022. It was also connected to Outer Ring Road Phase I, which also had a road network synergy effect with traffic at the Meiguan Expressway, Yanjiang Expressway and Longda Expressway. Revenue of the Qinglian Expressway and the Wuhuang Expressway were affected by the diversion and toll expiration of the Guanglian Expressway respectively. Revenue declined significantly. Revenue fell 29.73% and 24.31% respectively in 2022.
The scale of the environmental protection business continued to expand. The wind power project contributed an incremental revenue of 808 million yuan to the company's clean energy business in 2022, an increase of 13.32% over the previous year. This was mainly due to the increase in the contribution of Zhongwei Gantang and Yongcheng Futian wind power projects in the fourth quarter of 2021. In June 2022, the company increased its shareholding in Qiantai, Shenzhen by 13.33% to 63.33%, and entered the car scrapping and comprehensive battery utilization business. In 2022, this business achieved revenue of 392 million yuan, accounting for 4.2% of operating income.
A number of road production lines have entered the construction period one after another. I am optimistic about the growth potential brought about by the completion of the road network and the expansion of road production. Currently, the company is carrying out the riverside highway phase II and the airborne highway renovation and expansion projects. The outer ring phase III and the Shenzhen-Shantou Expressway have already entered pre-project work. After completion, many trunk lines such as the riverside expressway, the airborne highway, the Guangzhou-Shenzhen Expressway, and the Shenzhen-China Corridor will be interconnected. We are positively optimistic about the effect of traffic growth after the road network is completed.
According to the company's annual report, the total capital expenditure by the end of 2025 will be about 6.180 billion yuan, and the company's debt scale and financial expenses are expected to rise simultaneously in 2023.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's revenue in 2023-2025 to be 109.70/121.84/13.211 billion yuan respectively, with a corresponding growth rate of 17.04%/11.06%/8.43% respectively; the net profit of the parent mother is 25.30/29.58/3.317 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding growth rate is 25.63%/16.91%/12.13%, respectively, and EPS is 1.16/1.36/1.52 yuan per share, respectively. Optimistic about the company's performance growth potential under the “toll road+big environmental protection” dual business model, refer to comparable company valuations, maintain the target price of 10.9 yuan (corresponding to 9.4X PE in 2023), and maintain the “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning: Traffic growth falls short of expectations; investment in renovation and expansion exceeds expectations; fee policy changes.
