Incident: The company announced its performance report for '22, achieving annual revenue of 4.106 billion yuan, an increase of 106.92% over the previous year; achieving net profit of 382 million yuan, an increase of 249.46% over the previous year; after deducting net profit of non-Gumo's net profit of 293 million yuan, an increase of 305.32% over the previous year. The performance exceeded expectations.
Comment:
Benefiting from the lithium battery business, revenue and orders continued to rise. Benefiting from the expansion of production by downstream power battery companies and the delivery of company orders, the company achieved a high growth rate in revenue and orders. The company achieved revenue of 4.106 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of 106.92% over the previous year; new orders signed in '22 were about 7.7 billion yuan (tax included), an increase of about 35% over the previous year; and current orders were about 8.1 billion yuan (tax included), an increase of about 59% over the previous year.
Lithium batteries: It is expected that growth will continue to be high through new products and overseas trips. On the one hand, the company continues to expand the company's product value chain, from high-speed laser processing machines and mid-stage assembly line products to products such as integrated coiling, cylindrical assembly lines, module packs, etc., and the value of the single GW equipment that the company can provide has increased; on the other hand, the company focuses on overseas markets and is expected to win incremental orders in new markets.
Non-lithium batteries: Photovoltaic+pan-semiconductor active layout. 1) Photovoltaics: The company is currently focusing on TopCon single-doping equipment, and is also actively focusing on equipment development for other photovoltaic processes. The winning rate of TopCon's project company that has already opened a bid for doping equipment has already exceeded 60%; 2) shows that it lays out microLED and miniLED laser application process products, etc. In June 2022, the company launched a laser intelligent composite trimmer, effectively improving the productivity and yield of customers.
The 22-year profit forecast was raised, the 23-24 profit forecast was lowered, and the buying rating was maintained. According to the company's performance report data, we raised our profit forecast for '22 to give the parent net profit of 381 million for '22 (previous forecast of 351 million). Considering the decline in the GW value of PV TOPCON products and the uncertainty of future industry expansion, we lowered the profit forecast level for 23-24, giving the company net profit of 727 and 1,016 million for 23-24 (previously predicted 853 million and 1,373 million). The current stock price corresponds to PE for 22-24, respectively 26, 14, 10X. Considering that the company is deeply involved in the laser and automation industry, achieved rapid growth in the power battery business, and made breakthroughs in industries such as the photovoltaic industry and new displays, the company's future growth space may continue to open up. As a result, the buy rating is maintained.
Risk warning: the risk that downstream enterprises will not expand production as expected; the risk that competition in the industry will intensify; the risk that new fields such as photovoltaics will expand less than expected, etc.