来源：证券时报
作者：吴瞬
3月23日，又一家“中字头”公司——中国移动发布2022年报。年报显示，中国移动2022年业绩表现亮眼，营收逼近万亿元：2022年实现营收9373亿元，同比增长10.5%；股东应占利润为1255亿元，同比增长8%。
但更豪气的是，中国移动披露，2022年拟将所赚1255亿元的67%都拿出来分红，这笔资金超过840亿元，且在2023年分红比例将超过70%。
3月23日，“中字头”公司再度集体走高。Wind行情数据显示，当日，Wind中字头央企指数收涨0.74%，板块总市值超13万亿元。成份股中，中国卫通涨停，中工国际、中航电测、中国铝业等多股涨幅超过5%。事实上，这只是近期“中字头”概念股爆发的一个缩影，自去年11月以来，“中字头”个股接连上涨。单从今年的涨幅来看，涨幅最高的中航电测涨超400%，中国卫通涨超100%，中科曙光、中国电信、中远海科、中工国际等涨超50%。与此同时，不少“中字头”公司亦都已在提升分红比例的路上。
在已积累的较大涨幅和更大手笔的分红比例下，“中字头”公司还能不能追？
多家“中字头”公司分红比例将达70%
根据公告，中国移动此前已派发中期股息每股2.20港元（含税），本次将派发末期股息每股2.21港元（含税），全年股息合计每股4.41港元（含税），较2021年增长8.6%。
截至2022年12月31日，中国移动期末股东应占利润为人民币1254.59亿元。中国移动在利润分配方案中表示，建议2022年全年派息率为67%，若按此计算中国移动2022年分红金额将超过840亿元。
但是67%的分红比例并不是中国移动的终点。中国移动还表示，为更好地回馈股东、共享发展成果，公司充分考虑盈利能力、现金流状况及未来发展需要，2023年以现金方式分配的利润提升至当年公司股东应占利润的70%以上，持续为股东创造更大价值。
事实上，证券时报记者注意到，不仅是中国移动在提升分红比例，不少“中字头”公司都已在提升分红比例的路上。
3月22日，中国电信公告称，派发末期股息人民币0.076元（含税）。以2022年末总股本计算，合计人民币69.55亿元，股息来源于当期实现的净利润。加上2022年中期已派发股息每股人民币0.120元（含税），2022年全年股息为每股人民币0.196元（含税），合计人民币179.35亿元，占2022年度公司股东应占利润的比例为65%。
此前，中国电信也表示，公司高度重视股东回报，积极履行利润分配承诺，自2022年起宣派中期股息，并将在A股发行上市后三年内，逐步将每年以现金方式分配的利润提升至当年本公司股东应占利润的70%以上，不断为广大股东创造价值。
中国联通年报表示，董事会建议派发每股末期股息人民币 0.0427 元(含税)，连同已派发的中期股息每股 0.0663 元(含税)，预计全年每股股息达到 0.1090 元(含税)，同比预计提升24%，合计分红金额占2022年净利润的76.2%。
中国平安年报公告亦表示，因公司营运利润的持续增长及对平安未来前景充满信心，董事会建议2022年末期股息为每股现金人民币1.50元(含税)，加上已派发的中期股息每股现金人民币0.92元(含税)，全年股息为每股现金人民币2.42元(含税)，同比增长1.7%，占2022年归母净利润的53.6%。
事实上，近年来“中字头”公司越来越注重股东分红比例，有的甚至将全年利润全部分红。如中国神华2021年的净利润为502亿元，2021年的分红总额504亿元，占2021年度中国企业会计准则下归属于本公司股东净利润的100.4%，也就是说，中国神华将2021年度赚来的每一分利润都分给了股东。
对于“中字头”公司为何近年来频频提升分红比例、加大股东回报，翼虎投资董事长余定恒在接受证券时报记者采访时表示：“此轮央国企考核体系改变最大的亮点就是统一了管理层与股东的利益，引入股权激励市场化的激励机制激活管理层，同时提高分红比例兼顾股东权益。未来成长性的行业越来越重视股权激励，而龙头胜出的价值型行业以不断加大分红派息力度来提升股东的实际回报，共同分享企业成长的价值将成为重要的市场趋势。”
“中字头”公司股价飙升
据了解，自去年11月“中国特色估值体系”提出以来，不少“中字头”公司的股价就迎来飙升，不少公司的股价涨幅超过30%乃至100%。
对于“中字头”股价飙升，博时基金指数与量化投资部认为主要原因有三点。一是顺周期及大盘价值风格占优。2023年以来，经济复苏预期提前发酵，与内需关联较大的顺周期板块及大盘价值风格开始占优，“中字头”蓝筹股乘势而起。二是市场逐步聚焦“中国特色估值体系”和“中字头”企业估值重塑，因此估值性价比高的“中字头”股价被催化上涨。三是运营商走强，带动“中字头”股价上涨。在数字中国、央国企价值重估等共同催化下，运营商走强，进一步提振市场对“中字头”股价的情绪。
“‘中字头’股价的攀升缘于去年11月中国特色估值体系的提出，2022年是国企改革三年行动的收官之年，在国企改革政策红利的驱动下，‘中字头’迎来政策面和业绩基本面的双重提升，在当前市场格局下‘中字头’整体的估值偏低，具备较大的重塑空间。大量机构资金的入场也成为中字头股价盘升的推手。”余定恒说。
在余定恒看来，“中字头”公司的投资价值简单而言就是来自于政策面及业绩基本面的戴维斯双击。政策面第一是国企价值重估有望成为建设中国特色估值体系的重要落脚点，国企作为经济稳定发展的“压舱石”，政策红利明显；第二是国企改革，深化国资委市场化考核，加快专业化整合，统一了管理层与股东的利益，更协调了国有体制和市场化机制的一致性，有助于提升央国企的市场化及运营效率；基本面方面，央企市场化转型带来的产业升级，在政策利好及自身产业升级效率提升的背景下，盈利空间有望提速，同时中国经济复苏的大背景下，“中字头”公司的业绩有望进一步向好，短期有估值端提升，中期有业绩端改善。随着ETF的入市，或将为“中特估”板块进一步带来增量资金。
中信证券研究也指出，国有企业在当下有较高的投资价值：1）国企是国民经济体系的重要支柱，上市国有企业在关系国家安全、国民经济命脉的行业尤其是传统行业中占比较高；2）国企盈利稳定且有增长，分红金额逐年提升，受益于国企改革，上市国企营收增速目前已经与民企不相上下，在政策引导下，进行现金分红的国企数量和分红金额逐年提升；3）国有企业尤其是央企估值显著低于民企，截至2022年末，约有17.86%的国企处于破净状态；4）国有企业将长期享受改革红利，近年来发布股权激励预案的国有企业数量显著上升，国企研发费用稳定增长，科技创新能力有望持续提高。
“中字头”公司热度能否持续？
不过，需要注意的是，“中字头”股价自去年11月以来，已积累较高涨幅，近期中国移动、中国电信两只标杆个股都一度出现较大幅度调整。尤其是在3月20日，中国移动、中国电信A股双双逼近跌停。
对此，余定恒表示：“近期调整的诱因一个是涨多了面临内在调整的压力，在资金存量博弈的市场环境下，短期上涨过快，过度拥挤的板块脆弱性抬升，在板块快速轮动的场景下，资金切换赛道，迎来阶段性的休整。长期来看，国企价值重估有望成为建设中国特色估值体系的重要落脚点，趋势向好，但是可持续性仍然需要观察，目前而言国内的投资者对于‘中字头’公司的投资信仰需要慢慢建立，要结合政策导向、企业基本面、股东回报等综合因素来长期衡量。”
博时基金指数与量化投资部表示，央国企盈利能力与公司治理的改善并非一蹴而就，盈利能力的改善是后续估值天花板进一步打开的必要条件。在当前市场阶段，不少央国企涨幅明显，未来市场行情的进一步演绎取决于后续央国企盈利释放的情况。央国企盈利与现金流的改善主要将来自于三个方面：一是要通过改革优化经营效率；二是充分利用资金资源优势提升投资回报率；三是提升现金流的净利润转化率。后续随着国企价值重估细则的设立、以及央国企公司质地的真实好转，下一阶段能够释放利润的行业公司估值提升的空间更大，并能够带来持续性行情。因此后续值得重点跟踪观察央国企经营效率和经营质量的提升情况。
编辑/jayden
Source: Securities Times
Author: Wu Shun
On March 23, China Mobile, another company with “Chinese characters”, released its 2022 report. According to the annual report, China Mobile performed well in 2022, with revenue approaching trillion yuan: 2022 achieved revenue of 937.3 billion yuan, an increase of 10.5% over the previous year; profit attributable to shareholders was 125.5 billion yuan, an increase of 8% over the previous year.
However, what is even more impressive is that China Mobile revealed that it plans to pay out 67% of its 125.5 billion yuan earned in 2022. This amount of capital exceeds 84 billion yuan, and the dividend ratio will exceed 70% in 2023.
On March 23, companies with “Chinese characters” once again rose collectively. Wind market data shows that on the same day, the central enterprise index with the letters in Wind closed up 0.74%, and the total market value of the sector exceeded 13 trillion yuan. Among the constituent stocks, China Weitong stopped rising, while many stocks such as China Industrial International, China Aviation Electric Test, and China Aluminum rose more than 5%. In fact, this is just a microcosm of the recent explosion of “Chinese characters” concept stocks. Since November last year, individual stocks with “Chinese characters” have been rising one after another. Judging from this year's growth alone, China Aviation Telecom, which had the highest increase, measured more than 400%, China Satellite Communications rose more than 100%, and Zhongke Shuguang, China Telecom, COSCO Haike, and China Industrial International rose more than 50%. At the same time, quite a few “Chinese leading” companies are already on their way to increasing their dividend ratio.
With the large increase that has already been accumulated and the larger dividend ratio, can companies with “Chinese characters” catch up?
The dividend ratio of many “Chinese leading” companies will reach 70%
According to the announcement, China Mobile has previously paid an interim dividend of HK$2.20 per share (tax included), and this time it will pay a final dividend of HK$2.21 per share (tax included). The total annual dividend is HK$4.41 (tax included) per share, an increase of 8.6% over 2021.
As of December 31, 2022, China Mobile's profit attributable to shareholders at the end of the period was RMB 125.459 billion. China Mobile stated in its profit distribution plan that it is recommended that the dividend rate for the full year of 2022 be 67%. If calculated on this basis, China Mobile's 2022 dividend amount will exceed 84 billion yuan.
However, the 67% dividend ratio is not the end of China Mobile. China Mobile also said that in order to better give back to shareholders and share development results, the company fully considered profitability, cash flow conditions and future development needs. The profit distributed in cash in 2023 increased to more than 70% of the company's shareholders' profit that year, and continued to create greater value for shareholders.
In fact, the Securities Times reporter noticed that not only is China Mobile increasing its dividend ratio; quite a few “Chinese character” companies are already on their way to increasing their dividend ratio.
On March 22, China Telecom announced that it would distribute a final dividend of RMB 0.076 (tax included). Based on the total share capital at the end of 2022, the total amount was RMB 6.955 billion. The dividend was derived from the net profit realized during the period. In addition to the dividend already distributed in mid-2022 of RMB 0.120 per share (tax included), the dividend for the full year of 2022 was RMB 0.196 per share (tax included), totaling RMB 17.935 billion, accounting for 65% of the profit attributable to the company's shareholders in 2022.
Earlier, China Telecom also stated that the company attaches great importance to shareholders' returns, actively fulfills profit distribution promises, announces interim dividends starting in 2022, and will gradually increase the profit distributed in cash every year to more than 70% of the profit that the company's shareholders should account for more than 70% of the profit that year within three years after the issuance and listing of A-shares, continuously creating value for the majority of shareholders.
According to China Unicom's annual report, the board of directors recommended a final dividend of RMB 0.0427 per share (tax included), along with the interim dividend already distributed of 0.0663 yuan per share (tax included). It is estimated that the annual dividend per share will reach 0.1090 yuan (tax included), an increase of 24% over the previous year. The total dividend amount accounts for 76.2% of net profit in 2022.
The China Ping An Annual Report announcement also stated that due to the continued growth in the company's operating profit and full confidence in Ping An's future prospects, the board of directors recommended a cash dividend of RMB 1.50 per share (tax included) for the end of 2022, plus the interim dividend of RMB 0.92 per share in cash (tax included), and the annual dividend of RMB 2.42 per share (tax included), up 1.7% year on year, accounting for 53.6% of Fumo's net profit in 2022.
In fact, “Chinese leading” companies have paid more and more attention to shareholder dividend ratios in recent years, and some have even distributed all of their profits throughout the year. For example, China Shenhua's net profit in 2021 was 50.2 billion yuan, and the total dividend for 2021 was 50.4 billion yuan, accounting for 100.4% of the net profit attributable to the company's shareholders under the 2021 China Enterprise Accounting Standards. In other words, China Shenhua distributed every profit earned in 2021 to shareholders.
As to why companies with “Chinese letters” have frequently increased their dividend ratios and increased shareholder returns in recent years, Yu Dingheng, chairman of Maverick Investment, said in an interview with the Securities Times reporter, “The biggest highlight of this round of changes in the central state-owned enterprise assessment system is unifying the interests of management and shareholders, introducing market-based incentive mechanisms for equity incentives to activate management, while increasing the dividend ratio to balance shareholders' rights. In the future, growing industries will pay more and more attention to equity incentives, while leading value industries will continue to increase dividend payments to enhance shareholders' actual returns and share the value of enterprise growth together will become an important market trend.”
Shares of “Chinese characters” companies have soared
According to information, since the “valuation system with Chinese characteristics” was introduced in November last year, the stock prices of many “Chinese characters” companies have soared, with many companies' stock prices rising by more than 30% or even 100%.
The Bosch Fund Index and Quantitative Investment Department believe there are three main reasons for the sharp rise in “Chinese characters” stock prices. First, procyclical and broad-market value styles prevail. Since 2023, economic recovery expectations have fermented ahead of schedule, and procyclical sectors and general market value styles that are more linked to domestic demand have begun to dominate, and blue-chip stocks with “medium letters” have taken advantage of the momentum. Second, the market is gradually focusing on the “valuation system with Chinese characteristics” and the reshaping of valuations of “Chinese characters” companies, so the “Chinese character” stock prices, which are cost-effective in valuations, have been catalyzed to rise. Third, the strengthening of operators has led to a rise in the “middle letter” stock prices. Under the joint catalysis of digital China and the revaluation of central state-owned enterprises, operators have strengthened, further boosting market sentiment about “Chinese leading” stock prices.
“The rise in 'Chinese letters' stock prices stemmed from the introduction of a valuation system with Chinese characteristics in November last year. 2022 is the final year of the three-year action to reform state-owned enterprises. Driven by the dividends of state-owned enterprise reform policies, the 'Chinese letter' ushered in a double increase in policy and performance fundamentals. Under the current market pattern, the overall valuation of the 'Chinese letter' is undervalued, and there is plenty of room for reshaping. The entry of large amounts of institutional capital has also been the driving force behind the rise in China's leading stock prices.” Yu Dingheng said.
According to Yu Dingheng, the investment value of companies with “Chinese characters” simply comes from Davis's double click on policy and performance fundamentals. The first policy aspect is that the revaluation of state-owned enterprises is expected to become an important foothold in building a valuation system with Chinese characteristics. State-owned enterprises, as the “ballast stone” of stable economic development, have obvious policy dividends; the second is the reform of state-owned enterprises, deepening the market-based assessment of the State Assets Administration Commission, speeding up specialized integration, unifying the interests of management and shareholders, and further harmonizing the interests of state-owned enterprises with market-based mechanisms; in terms of fundamentals, industrial upgrading brought about by the market-based transformation of central enterprises is expected to be profitable in the context of favorable policies and increased efficiency of their own industrial upgrading. Speeding up, while China Against the backdrop of economic recovery, the performance of “Chinese leading” companies is expected to improve further. There will be an increase on the valuation side in the short term, and an improvement on the performance side in the medium term. As ETFs enter the market, they may bring further incremental capital to the “medium valuation” sector.
Research by CITIC Securities also points out that state-owned enterprises currently have high investment value: 1) State-owned enterprises are an important pillar of the national economic system. Listed state-owned enterprises account for a relatively high proportion of industries related to national security and the lifeblood of the national economy, especially traditional industries; 2) the profits of state-owned enterprises are stable and growing. Benefiting from the reform of state-owned enterprises, the revenue growth rate of listed state-owned enterprises is now on a par with that of private enterprises. Under policy guidance, the number of state-owned enterprises and the amount of dividends paid by central enterprises is increasing year by year; 3) State-owned enterprises, especially central enterprises, have a significant valuation of private enterprises;, as of the end of 2022, there are approximately 17.86% of state-owned enterprises are in a state of bankruptcy; 4) State-owned enterprises will enjoy reform dividends for a long time. The number of state-owned enterprises that have issued equity incentive plans has risen markedly in recent years, the R&D expenses of state-owned enterprises have increased steadily, and scientific and technological innovation capabilities are expected to continue to improve.
Can the popularity of “Chinese lettering” companies continue?
However, it is important to note that the “Chinese first” stock price has accumulated a high increase since November of last year. Recently, China Mobile and China Telecom, both benchmark individual stocks, have been drastically adjusted. In particular, on March 20, China Mobile and China Telecom's A-shares both came to a standstill.
In response, Yu Dingheng said, “One reason for the recent adjustment is that it has risen too much and is under pressure from internal adjustment. In the market environment of capital stock games, the short-term rise was too fast, and the fragility of the overcrowded sector increased. Under the scenario of rapid sector rotation, capital switched tracks and ushered in a phased recession. Looking at the long term, the revaluation of state-owned enterprises is expected to become an important foothold in building a valuation system with Chinese characteristics. The trend is improving, but sustainability still needs to be observed. Currently, domestic investors need to slowly establish their investment beliefs about 'Chinese' companies, which must be measured in the long term by combining comprehensive factors such as policy orientation, corporate fundamentals, and shareholder returns.”
The Bosch Fund Index and Quantitative Investment Department said that improvements in the profitability and corporate governance of central state-owned enterprises were not achieved overnight; improvements in profitability were a necessary condition for the subsequent valuation ceiling to open up further. At the current stage of the market, many central state-owned enterprises have clearly increased, and the further interpretation of future market conditions depends on the subsequent release of profits by central state-owned enterprises. The improvement in profits and cash flow of central state-owned enterprises will mainly come from three aspects: one is to optimize operating efficiency through reforms; the second is to make full use of the advantages of capital resources to improve the return on investment; and the third is to increase the net profit conversion rate of cash flow. Subsequent, with the establishment of rules for the revaluation of state-owned enterprises and the actual improvement in the quality of central state-owned enterprise companies, there is more room for the valuation of companies in industries that can release profits in the next stage to increase, and it can also bring about a sustainable market. Therefore, it is worth focusing on following up and observing the improvement in the operating efficiency and quality of operation of central state-owned enterprises in the future.
Editor/jayden
