Global macroscopic
Futures on the three major stock indexes rose collectively before the US stock market on Thursday
Powell's favored indicator sends a signal that interest rate cuts this year are inevitable
The recent forward spread curve that Powell is most concerned about, that is, the difference between the current yield of a 3-month US treasury bill and the expected yield of an 18-month forward term has already reached 134 basis points. This is even greater than the biggest reversal in history set in January 2001. At that time, the US economy fell into recession about two months later. In March of last year, Powell said that if this curve were to be reversed, it would mean that the Fed would cut interest rates, which meant that the economy was weak.
“Strong” Powell! Former US Treasury Secretary: Suspending interest rate hikes may send a signal of panic
On Wednesday local time, the Federal Reserve announced a further 25 basis point rate hike in the context of the ongoing banking crisis, triggering market participants to “attack in droves.” However, former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers stood up for the Federal Reserve's latest move. He said that the 25 basis points for the Fed to raise interest rates were the right thing to do. If the Fed decided to suspend interest rate hikes, that would be a sign of panic.
Is a new rescue on the way? Leaders of the US banking industry gathered in Washington, and it is rumored that there will be new moves within 24 hours
According to media quoting people familiar with the matter, J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon met with US President Joe Biden's chief economic adviser and White House National Economic Council director Brainard in Washington on Wednesday EST. Another source said that the goal of Wall Street banks is to draw up a detailed set of specific measures within the next 24 hours to save First Republic Bank.
Amid turmoil in the US banking industry, Biden's approval rating in the polls fell 40% again
As the banking crisis unfolded, the days of US President Joe Biden became sad again. In the latest Associated Press-NORC poll in March, Biden's approval rating fell to 38%, only 2 percentage points short of his lowest point in office in July last year (36%). In January, Biden's approval rating in this poll was 41%, while in February, 45% of people supported Biden.
Still watching the $140 oil price? “The god of crude oil trading” lost money: its funds plummeted 40% this year
Pierre Andurand, the “head” of Andurand Capital, the world's largest oil hedge fund, said at the commodities global summit that due to the banking industry's difficulties, speculative behavior in the market led to the recent collapse in oil prices. It has nothing to do with fundamentals. All of his indicators are bullish on oil prices, and he believes that oil prices will soar to 140 US dollars/barrel by the end of the year.
Hot news
Star Technology's stock rose collectively before the market, while Tesla and Nvidia rose more than 2%
It is expected to replace Berkshire! Nvidia rose more than 2% before the market and will become the fifth largest company in the world by market capitalization
The market is right$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The reaction to the annual GTC conference was very positive. The stock price has continued to rise recently, rising nearly 2% again before the market today. The opening of the market will exceed Berkshire's current market capitalization, making it the fifth largest company in the world by market capitalization. Bank of America analysts said that based on the factors that chip giant Nvidia is increasingly leading in the field of artificial intelligence and large-scale language models (LLM), the company's stock price is expected to rise sharply in the future. Bank of America said that judging from Nvidia's scale and vision, it may accelerate the process of driving large-scale language models (LLMs) into almost every terminal market; while the scope and ambition of Huang Renxun's keynote speech “strengthened Nvidia's dominant position in the generative AI and LLM markets, which may reshape the existing technology industry and usher in disruptive startups.”
Will the search market change day by day? Microsoft Bing downloads jumped 8 times after integrating OpenAI technology
According to data from the analysis company Similarweb, as of March 20,$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Since the ChatGPT version of Bing was launched on February 7, the number of Bing visits increased by 15.8%. In comparison,$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$Search engine traffic dropped by nearly 1%. Also, according to applied research company Data.ai, after integrating AI technology, Bing's downloads jumped 8 times globally, and downloads of Google's search engine apps dropped 2% during the same period.
Apple and Microsoft account for a record high in the S&P 500, and the banking industry's Thunderbolt Technology stock has become a safe haven
Amid the recent banking crisis that frightened people in the market,$Apple (AAPL.US)$with$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$The total weight in the S&P 500 reached a record high as investors sought out these two tech giants as “safe havens”, and the market capitalization of both companies exceeded $2 trillion. According to data, the current combined weight of Apple and Microsoft in the S&P 500 index is about 13.3%, of which Apple accounts for 7.11% and Microsoft accounts for 6.14%. Their trend basically determines the trend direction of the S&P 500.
New developments in Apple's autonomous driving project: the number of test drivers increased to more than 200
According to data released by the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) in the United States,$Apple (AAPL.US)$Currently with 67 test cars and 201 registered drivers, the tech giant is testing autonomous vehicle technology on public roads with these vehicles and drivers. Since 2021, there has been no change in the number of cars in Apple's fleet, but the number of drivers has increased. According to the data, since January 2023, Apple's authorized drivers have increased from 196 to 201, while the number of vehicles has remained stable at 67.
Sanofi rose more than 6% before the market, and its subsidiary Dupixent is expected to be the first biopharmaceutical approved to treat lung diseases
$Sanofi (SNY.US)$The blockbuster drug Dupixent was successful in a late-stage trial for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), which increased the possibility that the drug would become the first biologic approved to treat lung disease. According to reports, Sanofi collaborated with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals to develop Dupixent. The company expects maximum sales of the drug to exceed 13 billion euros. As of press release, Sanofi rose more than 6% before the market.
Focus on China Securities
Popular Chinese securities firms strengthened collectively before the market. Bilibili rose more than 6%, Ali, Pinduoduo, etc. rose more than 4%
China Press and Publication Administration: 86 games were approved in March, with Tencent, NetEase, etc. on the list
The National Press and Publication Administration released approval information for domestic online games in March 2023. A total of 86 games were approved.$NetEase (NTES.US)$Its “Mission Zero” and$Tencent (TCEHY.US)$“Last Sword”, a subsidiary company, is on the list. As of press release, NetEase rose more than 4% before the market.
Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks
US stock macro calendar reminder:
20:30 Number of jobless claims in the US at the beginning of the week
22:00 Total yearly evolution of new home sales in the US
22:30 US EIA gas inventory for the week
Editor/Somer