Incident: On March 22, Kunming Pharmaceutical Group released its 2022 annual report. In 2022, the company achieved total revenue of 8.282 billion yuan, an increase of 0.35% over the previous year; achieved net profit of 383 million yuan, a decrease of 24.52% over the previous year; and realized operating profit of 497 million yuan, a decrease of 21.59% over the previous year.
Revenue was at the same level as the impact of collection and the epidemic, and there are prospects for growth due to the lifting of the medical insurance suffix for injectable formulations. In 22Q4, the company achieved operating income of 2,089 million yuan (-6.15%), net profit of 11 million yuan (-85.77%), and gross margin for a single quarter was 37.51%, a decrease over the previous quarter. Net income from changes in fair value was -27 million yuan, and asset impairment losses were -031 million yuan. Non-recurring profit and loss in the fourth quarter had a great impact on Guimo's net profit. According to the company's 2021-2022 annual report, the subsidiary Beck Norton achieved revenue of 499 million yuan (-16%) and net profit of 503 million yuan (+31.24%) in 2022. We speculate that revenue may have declined due to the impact of the epidemic and the entry of some products into collection, but profit margins improved. The company's Xuesitong oral product revenue fell 15.60% year-on-year, while revenue from the injectable Hemoconitong (freeze-dried) dosage form increased 72.64% year-on-year with the new medical insurance catalogue. Acupressure injections The type removed the restrictions on use for clinical indications, and we believe there is potential for the company's Hemosiderm injectable preparation to be distributed in hospitals.
Revenue from the Kunming Traditional Chinese Medicine, Health, and Overseas sectors is relatively good, and the net interest rate of Kunming Traditional Chinese Medicine is expected to increase after the acquisition.
In 2022, Kunming Traditional Chinese Medicine achieved revenue of 1,319 million yuan (+ 8.80%) and net profit of 142 million yuan (+57.50%). Among them, Shen Lingjian's spleen and stomach pellets, liver relief granules, and fragrant sand flatstomach granules increased 22.66%, 20.90%, and 29.22%, respectively. We are optimistic about the synergistic effect of Kongyao's back-end acquisition by 39, and profit margins are expected to increase. The sales scale of the company's big health business exceeded 200 million yuan (+ 104%) in 2022. The company focused on channel expansion, single product creation, and accelerated R&D. With the launch of the 37 series of new products, we are optimistic that this business's contribution will increase. The company's overseas business achieved strong growth in 2022, achieving revenue of 562 million yuan (+169.31%).
R&D and innovation take a multi-pronged approach to build new engines to inject new vitality. According to the management plan section of the annual report, in 2023, the company will focus on the 37 industry chain, accelerate the integration of resources, cultivate quality Chinese medicines, promote a wide variety of products, and build a strong brand. At the same time, the company will build on its own R&D characteristics, focus on “healthy aging” needs, enrich the product pipeline, promote the R&D market, be innovation-driven and multi-pronged, promote the rapid growth of new products, new businesses, and new industries, and achieve synchronization between consolidating the foundation of R&D and innovation and leapfrogging development.
Profit forecast and rating: We expect KPC Group's revenue for 2023-2025 to be 93.30/104.22/11,575 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit of the mother is 657/826/1,003 billion yuan, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk factors: industry policy change risk, product quality risk, R&D innovation risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, environmental protection and safety management risk.