CT tubes are the core high-value consumables, and localization is expected to accelerate
According to the Medical Device Innovation Network, CT tubes, as the core component of CT machines, account for a relatively large amount of value. Due to wear and tear, they are generally replaced every two years, while for people's hospitals with a large number of outpatient visits, CT tubes often have to be replaced once or even twice a year. As the penetration rate of the domestic CT equipment market continues to increase, the domestic CT tube autonomy process may accelerate as domestic self-produced and alternative CT tube manufacturers gradually enter the market.
There is broad scope for the localization of CT tubes, and the company's production capacity is expanding steadily.
The CT tube market is growing steadily. According to our estimates, it is estimated that the domestic CT tube component market will reach 890 to 1.08 billion yuan in 23 and 25, and the compound growth rate for 2022-2025 will be 9.3%. In the future, with the release of domestic production capacity for CT tubes, domestic substitution of related copper alloy components is considerable. Customers of Sirui New Materials include companies such as Siemens Healthcare, Lianying Healthcare, Varevision, and Yiyuan Medical. According to the company's public investment questions and answers, the company plans to build a production capacity of 30,000 sets of CT tube components in about three years, and production capacity is steadily expanding.
The aerospace market is on the rise, and demand for rocket nozzles is growing at a considerable rate.
As one of the main forces driving the world economy, the aerospace industry has good prospects for market demand. Based on the number of launches in 2022 disclosed by the People's Daily, against the backdrop that major countries around the world attach importance to the development of the space sector, the average growth rate of overseas and domestic rocket launches over the years is expected to be 10% and 15% in that order. By 2025, the number of global and domestic rocket launches is expected to be 260 and 97 in that order. Under this assumption, the total value of copper alloy materials used in global and domestic rocket nozzles in 2025 is estimated to be about 1,87 million yuan and 701 million yuan, in that order, and the compound growth rate for 2022-2025 will be 20.7% and 21.3% in that order.
The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of superalloy production capacity for downstream customers such as Western Superconductor. According to Sirui New Materials's announcement and public investor questions and answers, the company has planned a production capacity of 2,000 tons of chrome powder and has already industrialized production. In addition to internal supply, it has also been able to supply German GFe, Siemens, and Western Superconductor. Take Western Superconductor as an example. According to the Western Superconductor announcement, Western Superconductivity currently has a production capacity of 2,000 tons/year for superalloy bars, and another IPO fund-raising project is expected to add 2,500 tons of superalloy material production capacity, including 1,900 tons of nickel-based superalloy bars for engines and a 600-ton powder superalloy master alloy production line. The 2021 Western Superconducting Targeted Distribution Project is expected to add 1,500 tons/year of superalloy production capacity. The construction period is 3 years. If all of the Western Superconducting fund-raising projects are successfully implemented, its high-temperature alloy production capacity is expected to reach 6,000 tons/year in the future. Based on the calculation of 20% of the chromium ratio in superalloys from Sirui New Materials public investors, the corresponding demand for chromium powder could reach 1,200 tons.
Investment advice:
We expect the company to achieve operating income of 994, 1353, and 1,654 million yuan respectively in 2022-2024, and net profit of 0.78, 141, and 175 million yuan. The corresponding EPS is 0.19, 0.35, and 0.44 yuan/share respectively. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 78.9, 43.7, and 35.2 times. Maintain the “Buy-A” rating and target price of 22 yuan/share for 6 months.
Risk warning: Prices of raw materials fluctuate greatly, demand falls short of expectations, technical iterations fall short of expectations, and there is a difference between estimates and reality.