ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s (NYSE:ZTO) strong earnings report was rewarded with a positive stock price move. Our analysis found some more factors that we think are good for shareholders.
See our latest analysis for ZTO Express (Cayman)
A Closer Look At ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Earnings
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
Over the twelve months to December 2022, ZTO Express (Cayman) recorded an accrual ratio of -0.11. That indicates that its free cash flow was a fair bit more than its statutory profit. To wit, it produced free cash flow of CN¥11b during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of CN¥6.81b. Given that ZTO Express (Cayman) had negative free cash flow in the prior corresponding period, the trailing twelve month resul of CN¥11b would seem to be a step in the right direction.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Profit Performance
ZTO Express (Cayman)'s accrual ratio is solid, and indicates strong free cash flow, as we discussed, above. Based on this observation, we consider it likely that ZTO Express (Cayman)'s statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! And on top of that, its earnings per share have grown at 16% per year over the last three years. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. While it's really important to consider how well a company's statutory earnings represent its true earnings power, it's also worth taking a look at what analysts are forecasting for the future. At Simply Wall St, we have analyst estimates which you can view by clicking here.
This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of ZTO Express (Cayman)'s profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.