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国盛证券:海外电解槽需求高增趋势下 中国电解槽有望迎来出口机会

Guosheng Securities: Under the trend of rising demand for electrolyzers from overseas, China's electrolyzers are expected to usher in export opportunities

Zhitong Finance ·  Mar 22, 2023 14:59

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guosheng Securities released a research report saying that in recent years, the performance of China's electrolyzer products has continued to improve, and that they have cost advantages.Judging from the trend of rising demand for electrolyzers from overseas, China's electrolyzers are expected to usher in export opportunities.It is expected that high-quality equipment manufacturers with channel capabilities will welcome opportunities to set up joint ventures with overseas leaders and obtain export orders. We recommend industry leaders Longji Green Energy (601012.SH) and Sunshine Power (300274.SZ); recommend high-quality equipment suppliers, Shuangliang Energy (600481.SH), Yili Clean Energy (), Huadian Heavy Industries (), and Shenghui Technology (300423.SZ). 600277.SH 601226.SH

▍ The main views of Guosheng Securities are as follows:

Policy-driven: Overseas countries have clarified the strategic position of green hydrogen, and demand for electrolyzers has increased.

At this stage, the economic efficiency of green hydrogen is still lower than that of gray hydrogen. Currently, the industry is mainly policy-driven, and it is expected that it will shift to market-driven in the future. At this stage, the overseas electrolyzer market is showing two major characteristics:

1) The proportion of PEM electrolyzers is higher than domestic; the judgment is mainly due to ① overseas policies strictly define standards for renewable hydrogen, and the combination of national financial support effectively promotes the development of PEM electrolyzers; ② Overseas electrolyzers developed earlier, and the scale of early projects was small, suitable for PEM development with lower power.

2) Rapid release of alkaline equipment starting in 2022. NEL's financial report shows that demand for alkaline electrolyzers exploded rapidly after 2022. 22Q3 and Q4 alkaline electrolyzer revenue increased 940%/337%, and PEM revenue for the same period was -42%/+14% over the same period.

Main factors: 1) Short-term PEM electrolyzers have encountered supply chain bottlenecks; 2) The scale of electrolyzers signed in 2022 is increasing; 3) European natural gas hydrogen production accounts for 96%, and the Russian-Ukrainian war has greatly boosted the cost of natural gas hydrogen production. Under this trend, the economy of alkaline electrolyzers is prominent.

Industry demand: Looking at the future market space of overseas electrolyzers from leading orders and production expansion plans.

Current demand situation: Leading overseas electrolyzer companies saw a high increase in electrolyzer delivery and order volume in 2021-22. RepowerEU expects the cumulative installed capacity in Europe to reach 100 GW by 2030, and estimates the cumulative installed capacity in the Middle East and India to be 46.3 GW/57.9 GW by 2030.

1) NEL: Starting in 2021, the number of NEL delivery orders and in-hand orders increased. In-hand electrolyzer orders from 22Q1 to Q4 increased by 29%/35%/117%/137%, which is more than six times higher than the electrolyzer revenue during the same period. 22Q4 signed an alkaline order of approximately NOK 600 million with Woodside, Australia.

2) Nucera: The quarterly delivery order size for electrolyzers in 2022 was more than three times the revenue of the same period. 22Q1, 22H1, 22Q1 to Q3's electrolyzer delivery orders amounted to 8.0/83/930 million euros, far exceeding the same period last year. The company expects the revenue of alkaline electrolyzers to grow to 6-7 billion euros in 2023-24.

Using hydrogen scenarios: Looking at the use of orders from various companies, demand for green hydrogen at this stage is mainly to replace gray hydrogen for industrial use, energy decarbonization and emission reduction, and transportation supply hydrogen refueling stations.

The three dimensions of equipment cost, profit level, and production expansion plans look at the current round of electrolyzer export investment opportunities.

1) From a cost perspective, according to BNEF, overseas electrolyzer equipment prices are 2-3 times higher than domestic ones.

2) Looking at profit levels, many overseas electrolyzer companies are still losing profits before tax.

3) Looking at the production expansion plan, the current expansion rate of leading companies is still lower than the speed of order delivery. The performance of China's electrolyzer products has continued to improve in recent years, and they have a cost advantage. Judging from the trend of rising demand for electrolyzers from overseas, China's electrolyzers are expected to usher in export opportunities. It is expected that high-quality equipment manufacturers with channel capabilities will welcome opportunities to set up joint ventures with overseas leaders and obtain export orders.

Risk warning:

Policy support fell short of expectations, and assumptions and estimates were erroneous.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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