Source: Zhitong Finance and Economics

Oil prices fell to a 15-month low last week as banking turmoil triggered the withdrawal of money from the energy market as a safe haven. However, Jeff Currie, global head of commodities at Goldman Sachs Group, said on Tuesday that the banking crisis would eventually be good for crude oil because it would have a greater impact on supply than on demand.

"the banking crisis has spread to commodities," Jeff Currie said on Tuesday. "historically, when you have such a scarred event, it will take months for the money to come back. However, by June, there will be a supply shortage in the oil market, which will push up oil prices. "

Jeff Currie points out that there is no sign that the spillover of the crisis is weakening physical demand for raw materials. He believes that the biggest impact of the crisis focused on US regional banks may be to limit the capital available to shale oil producers, which in turn will eventually curb the supply of crude oil.

It is worth mentioning that Goldman Sachs Group analysts recently lowered their oil price forecasts under the influence of the banking crisis and potential economic recession. Brent crude is expected to reach $94 a barrel in the next 12 months and $97 a barrel in the second half of 2024, compared with a previous forecast of $100 a barrel.

In addition, Jeff Currie is still very bullish on copper. "the long-term outlook for copper is very optimistic and will be at 125000 tonnes of observable stocks, the lowest on record," he said. Supply will peak in 2024. In the near future, we expect the copper price to be $10500 / ton and the long-term target price to be $15000 / ton. "

Commodities trader Trafigura takes a similar view. Trafigura said copper prices could rise above a high of $12000 a tonne. Previously, copper prices hit an all-time high of $10845 a tonne in March 2022.

Edit / ruby