Key points of investment
Incident: The company announced its 2022 annual report. In 2022, the company achieved revenue/net profit attributable to the mother/net profit of 53.41/-592/556 million yuan, +4.41%/-179.82%/-22.50% over the same period last year. 2022Q4 achieved revenue/net profit attributable to the mother/net profit after deducting non-return to the mother of 1,385/-10.11/153 million yuan, compared to -18.71%/-369.42%/-57.95%. Due to the small contribution of the real estate business, apparent profit was slightly lower than expected, but profit from the condiment business was in line with expectations.
Commercial housing sales fell short of expectations at the beginning of the year, and condiments were better than expectations at the beginning of the year. The company's revenue in 2022 was +4.41% year on year. Among them, the parent company and Zhonghui Hechuang subsidiary confirmed a decrease in commercial housing revenue (estimated 400 million at the beginning of the year, actual forecast of about 210 million yuan); Delicious Fresh contributed 4.955 billion yuan, +7.30% year on year, higher than the forecast at the beginning of the year. 1) The volume and price of the core category increased sharply. In 2022, soy sauce/chicken powder/cooking oil/other revenue was +7.01%/+9.18%/+1.87%/+9.32%. The 21Q4 price increase caused the prices of soy sauce, chicken essence, and cooking oil to +1.8%, +3.6%, +11.0% year-on-year. Except for cooking oil due to price increases of -8.3%, sales of soy sauce and chicken powder were +5.2% and +5.4% year on year, mainly due to channel expansion and continuous increase in quality and efficiency In 2022, the company had a net increase of 301 dealers, dealers The number reached 2003, the district and county development rate reached 68.12%, and the prefecture-level city development rate reached 93.47%. 2) Category expansion continues. Chicken essence and chicken powder account for +0.5pct of revenue year over year, and other condiments account for +0.6pct of revenue year over year. 2022Q4 Delicious Fresh's revenue was -1.6% year on year, mainly due to the high base stimulated by price increases in the same period last year and the impact of the peak of the epidemic on demand.
Cost pressure is high, and gross margin is under pressure. The gross margin in 2022 was 31.70%, -3.17pct year on year. Among them, the gross profit margin for condiments was 30.22%, -2.86pct year on year, mainly due to high cost pressure. The gross margin of soy sauce and chicken powder was -4.06pct and -2.33pct year-on-year, and the direct material tonne cost was +9.77% and +6.79% can be verified. The gross margin of 2022Q4 was 31.65%, or 6.81 pct compared to the previous year. Except for the few confirmations of the real estate business (which was basically taken into Q4 in '21), the condiment business is expected to continue to be under pressure on gross margin under cost pressure.
Excluding the impact of pending litigation calculations, the profitability of condiments is under pressure due to increased cost pressure and cost investment. The outstanding lawsuit accrued debt of 1,178 million yuan, leading to a net interest rate of -11.09% year on year in 2022, -25.59 pct year on year. Excluding this effect, the net interest rate of return to the mother is expected to be 10.97%, year-on-year -3.53pct, mainly due to the fact that the contribution of the real estate business was lower than expected. The net interest rate of delicious fresh to the mother was 11.04%, -2.1pct year on year. The breakdown of condiment profitability pressure was as follows: 1) gross margin declined year-on-year under cost pressure; 2) Expense investment returned to normal, with the total interest rate in 2022 being 18.18%, +1.43pct year on year. Excluding the accrual impact of pending lawsuits, the net interest rate of 2022Q4 was 12.08%, -9.95pct compared to the previous year. Among them, the net interest rate of Delicious Fresh Return to Mother was 12.48%, -3.11pct over the previous year. In addition to cost pressure, it was related to the normalization increase in cost investment. The 2021Q4 price increase stimulus led to high channel motivation and a low fee investment base. The total rate of 2022Q4 was 18.69%, +6.93pct over the previous year, as can be explained.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We adjusted our profit forecast based on the company's annual report. The company's revenue for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 57.56/65.33/7517 million yuan, +7.8%/+13.5%/+15.1% year on year, achieving net profit of 7.82/902/1,083 million yuan compared to the previous year, +32.0%/+15.4%/+20.0%, corresponding to the closing price of March 21, 2023. PE valuation is 36/31/26x, maintaining the “growth” rating.
Risk warning: The effect of channel expansion is lower than expected; the controlling shareholder change process has been delayed for a long time; channel operation risks brought about by overall marketing changes.