27 imported games have been approved. Is a new explosion here? The technological revolution brought new ways to play, and after a few years, the sector took the lead in breaking through

券商中國 · Mar 21, 2023 09:03

来源：券商中国
作者：林乔

3月21日港股早盘，部分游戏股高开，截至发稿，哔哩哔哩涨超6%，心动公司、家乡互动涨超2%；金山软件、网易、中手游、IGG等纷纷跟涨。

消息面上，昨日收盘后，国家新闻出版署发布2023年进口网络游戏审批信息，共27款游戏获批，腾讯、网易、哔哩哔哩等知名游戏公司均有所斩获。有机构认为，版号恢复常态化发放给市场带来了较强的信心，利好整体板块的估值修复，游戏行业景气度持续回暖。

此外，近期美国OpenAI研发的聊天机器人程序火出了圈，也让人工智能再度成为资本市场的风口。有机构表示，游戏行业与AIGC（指利用人工智能技术来生成内容）具有天然适配性，有望带来游戏行业新一轮爆发，因此这将对游戏行业带来变革性的影响。

2023年进口网络游戏版号出炉

具体产品方面，包括腾讯游戏《庄园合合》、《七人传奇：光与暗之交战》、网易游戏《劲舞团：全民派对》、哔哩哔哩游戏《闪耀！优俊少女》（《赛马娘》国服）、心动网络《画中世界》、创梦天地《机甲战队》、悠星网络《蔚蓝档案》等多款重点产品。

步入2023年，国家新闻署在1月公告了96款游戏版号，在2月公布了87款游戏版号，而本次发放的是进口游戏版号，距离上次进口游戏版号发放仅不到3个月。

梳理近期版号发放节奏，除去年12月版号数量显著放宽外，进入2023年以来，版号发放时间节点更加规律，华西证券判断审批流程缩短是其主因。“我们维持对游戏产业的判断，行业供给回暖，新品上线周期将相应缩短，且各大厂商均在重启此前停运的经典手游，业绩有望将在1H23实现快速修复，预期改善亦有望提振估值。”

国联证券认为，版号恢复常态化发放，助力游戏市场复苏。版号恢复常态化发放给市场带来了较强的信心，利好整体板块的估值修复，游戏行业景气度持续回暖。自2022年4月版号恢复发放以来，新游上线的数量和质量也有望增强，建议关注版号储备丰富、研发能力较强、产品优质的头部公司。

游戏板块年后率先突围

3月20日，游戏、传媒股逆势上涨，光线传媒、富春股份涨超15%，神州泰岳涨超11%。在个股带动下，体现A股上市游戏股市场表现的中证动漫游戏指数20日再度大涨5.03%，该指数年后已回暖逾三成，悄然间成为走势最出色的细分赛道。

个股方面，板块内公司年后无一下跌，昆仑万维涨幅居首达93%，距离成为翻倍股咫尺之遥，神州泰岳涨超60%，宝通科技、姚记科技等涨逾50%，且游戏板块行情从去年年末开始就已启动，当前点位较2020年创下的前期高位仍有超三成的跌幅。指数基金方面，华夏中证动漫游戏ETF、华泰柏瑞中证动漫游戏ETF涨幅均超27%。

近期，游戏行业利好不断。中金公司认为，版号常态化，多方肯定产业健康发展下的游戏多维价值，2023或迎供需大年。

从外部环境来看，边际向好迹象明显：

1、供给层面，版号下发节奏常态化提振厂商信心，有望为后续产品释放奠定前置基础。
2、外部评价层面，人民网旗下人民财评、新华社旗下新华每日电讯等发文肯定游戏正面价值，指出应在推进产业健康发展的同时，“促进释放经济、文化与科技新价值”。
3，行业引导层面，2022年游戏产业年会2月中旬召开，中宣部提出推动“正能量”成为网络游戏发展主基调，实施“网络出版技术创新发展计划”，同时引导游戏底层技术创新发展。

中金公司认为，伴随着未年成人保护落实完善，在政策引导下游戏行业在供给侧趋于健康化、规范化和精品化，基本进入健康稳健发展阶段，年内有望受益于版号常态化迎接新品大年。需求方面，国内游戏流水与头部玩家付费能力关联度更高，或受益于经济复苏。中长期维度有望在VR/AR、AI技术、游戏引擎等方面实现突破与应用，实现游戏产业高质量发展。

技术革命打造游戏新模式

据了解，今年中宣部将实施“网络出版技术创新发展计划”，重点推动虚拟现实、感知交互、游戏引擎、动作捕捉等网络游戏底层技术创新突破，推动元宇宙、数字孪生、云游戏等新业态拓展应用。

近期，美国OpenAI研发的聊天机器人程序火出了圈，也让人工智能再度成为资本市场的风口。中信建投表示，游戏行业与AIGC（指利用人工智能技术来生成内容）具有天然适配性，有望带来游戏行业新一轮爆发，同是游戏行业将带来变革式影响，其表示：首先AIGC将降低制作成本，提升质量，提高效率，打破游戏行业“质量、效率、成本”的不可能三角；其次，将创造全新玩法和体验，AIGC有望带来内容质量的变革式提升；再次，AIGC还有望使精品化游戏的供给或将大幅增长。

日前，百度文心一言正式发布，已有多家公司申请成为百度智能云文心一言API调用服务测试的企业，巨人网络、中手游等游戏公司同样宣布将接入文心一言，进一步探索AIGC游戏领域应用。华泰证券认为，游戏市场本身的蕴含的庞大需求即是AIGC等技术的良好应用场景，相关科技的进步也将进一步提升我国游戏产业的产品质量及综合竞争力，从而驱动行业长线成长及估值提升。

编辑/jayden

Source: Broker China
Author: Lin Qiao

In early trading of Hong Kong stocks on March 21, some game stocks opened higher. As of press release, Bilibili had risen more than 6%, and Xindong Company and Hometown Interactive had risen more than 2%; Jinshan Software, NetEase, China Mobile Games, IGG, etc. followed suit.

According to the news, after the market closed yesterday, the National Press and Publication Administration released approval information for imported online games in 2023. A total of 27 games were approved. Well-known game companies such as Tencent, NetEase, and Bilibili all made gains.Some organizations believe that the resumption of normalized distribution of version numbers has brought strong confidence to the market, favoring the restoration of valuations in the overall sector, and that the prosperity of the game industry continues to pick up.

Furthermore, the chatbot program developed by OpenAI in the US recently became popular, making artificial intelligence once again a hot topic in the capital market. Some organizations said that the game industry is naturally compatible with AIGC (meaning the use of artificial intelligence technology to generate content) and is expected to bring about a new round of explosion in the game industry, so this will have a transformative impact on the game industry.

The 2023 version of the imported online game will be released

Specific product aspects include the Tencent game “Manor Synthesis”, “Legend of Seven: Battle of Light and Darkness”, the NetEase game “Dance Company: National Party”, and the Bilibili game “Shine! There are many key products such as “The Handsome Girl” (“Jockey Girl” national uniform), Shindong Network's “Painted World”, Dream World's “Mecha Team”, and Youxing Network's “Blue Files”.

Entering 2023, the State Information Administration announced 96 game versions in January and 87 game versions in February. This time, imported game numbers were issued, and it is less than 3 months since the last imported game version number was issued.

Sorting through the recent pace of edition number issuance, in addition to the significant relaxation in the number of edition numbers in December of this year, since entering 2023, the time points for issuing version numbers have become more regular. The main reason for this is that Huaxi Securities's judgment and approval process has been shortened.“We maintain our judgment on the game industry. Industry supply is picking up, the new product launch cycle will be shortened accordingly, and all major manufacturers are restarting classic mobile games that were previously suspended. Performance is expected to recover quickly on 1H23. Expected improvements are also expected to boost valuations.”

Guolian Securities believes that the resumption of regular distribution of edition numbers will help the game market recover. The resumption of normalized distribution of versions has brought strong confidence to the market, favoring the restoration of valuations in the overall sector, and the boom in the game industry continues to pick up. Since the release resumed in April 2022, the quantity and quality of new games launched is also expected to increase. It is recommended to focus on leading companies with rich version reserves, strong R&D capabilities, and high-quality products.

The game sector took the lead in breaking through in a few years

On March 20, gaming and media stocks bucked the trend. Light Media and Fuchun shares rose more than 15%, and Shenzhou Taiyue rose more than 11%. Driven by individual stocks, the China Securities Animation Game Index, which reflects the market performance of A-share listed game stocks, surged 5.03% again on the 20th. The index has already recovered more than 30% after a few years, quietly becoming the most trending segmented circuit.

In terms of individual stocks, none of the companies in the sector fell a bit after a few years. Kunlun Wanwei rose first by 93%. It is within easy reach of becoming a doubling stock. Shenzhou Taiyue rose more than 60%, Baotong Technology, Yao Ji Technology, etc. rose more than 50%. Moreover, the game sector market has started since the end of last year. The current position is still over 30% lower than the previous high set in 2020. In terms of index funds, the Huaxia China Securities Animation Game ETF and the Huatai Berry China Securities Animation Game ETF all rose more than 27%.

Recently, the game industry has continued to improve. CICC believes that with the normalization of the version number, many parties affirm the multi-dimensional value of games under the healthy development of the industry, and 2023 may welcome a major year of supply and demand.

Judging from the external environment, there are clear signs of marginal improvement:

1. At the supply level, normalizing the pace of release numbers boosts manufacturer confidence and is expected to lay the foundation for subsequent product releases.
2. At the external evaluation level, the People's Finance Review, a subsidiary of People's Online, and Xinhua Daily Telegraph, a subsidiary of Xinhua News Agency, published documents affirming the positive value of the game, stating that it should “promote the release of new economic, cultural, and technological values” while promoting the healthy development of the industry.
3. At the level of industry guidance, the 2022 game industry annual conference was held in mid-February. The Propaganda Department of the CPC proposed promoting “positive energy” as the main tone for online game development, implementing the “Internet Publishing Technology Innovation and Development Plan”, and at the same time guiding the innovation and development of underlying game technology.

CICC believes that with the implementation and improvement of the protection of underage adults, the game industry is becoming healthy, standardized, and boutique on the supply side under policy guidance, and has basically entered a stage of healthy and steady development. It is expected that it will benefit from the normalization of version numbers to welcome the new year during the year. On the demand side, domestic game flow is more correlated with the ability of leading players to pay, or may benefit from economic recovery. The medium- to long-term dimension is expected to achieve breakthroughs and applications in VR/AR, AI technology, game engines, etc., and achieve high-quality development of the game industry.

Technological revolution creates a new model of gaming

According to information, the Propaganda Department of the CPC will implement the “Internet Publishing Technology Innovation and Development Plan” this year, focusing on promoting innovations and breakthroughs in the underlying technologies of online games such as virtual reality, sensory interaction, game engines, and motion capture, and promoting the expansion and application of new business formats such as the metaverse, digital twins, and cloud gaming.

Recently, the chatbot program developed by OpenAI in the US has gone viral, and artificial intelligence has once again become a source of interest in the capital market. CITIC Construction Investment said that the game industry is naturally adaptable to AIGC (which refers to the use of artificial intelligence technology to generate content), which is expected to bring about a new round of explosion in the game industry. The game industry will also have a transformative impact. It stated: First, AIGC will reduce production costs, improve quality, improve efficiency, and break the impossible triangle of “quality, efficiency, and cost” in the game industry; secondly, it will create new gameplay and experiences, and AIGC is expected to bring about a transformational improvement in content quality; again, AIGC is expected to make the supply of boutique games grow dramatically.

Recently, Baidu Wenxin was officially released. A number of companies have applied to become Baidu Smart Cloud Wenxin's API call service testing companies. Game companies such as Giant Network and China Mobile Games have also announced that they will connect with Wenxin to further explore applications in the AIGC gaming field.Huatai Securities believes that the huge demand contained in the game market itself is a good application scenario for AIGC and other technologies. Advances in related technology will also further enhance the product quality and overall competitiveness of China's game industry, thereby driving long-term growth and valuation improvement in the industry.

Editor/jayden

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27款进口游戏获批，新一轮大爆发来了？技术革命带来新玩法，年后板块已率先突围