智通财经APP获悉，招商证券银行团队发布研报详解美国信用卡行业的发展现状、盈利模式与市场格局。该团队认为，未来中国信用卡业务已经进入白银时代，更加注重精耕细作。中长期来看，我们预计国内信用卡贷款复合增速5%左右，高增长时代不再，存量优势银行竞争优势易于延续，关注招行、平安、兴业等信用卡业务发展较好的上市银行。
美国信用卡行业的发展历经三个阶段，近二十年处于平稳发展期。1950-1958年，信用卡业务在美国萌芽;1958年-20世纪末，美国信用卡行业飞速发展;20世纪末以来，美国信用卡行业增长放缓，监管逐渐完善。近二十年来，美国信用卡市场处于平稳发展期。22Q3美国信用卡贷款余额9250亿美元，08年金融危机后及疫情时期曾阶段性下降。
VISA领跑信用卡组织，摩根大通银行领跑发卡银行。美国信用卡行业的四大信用卡组织分别为American Express、Discover、MasterCard和Visa，VISA领跑卡组织，市场份额接近4成。而摩根大通银行为美国最大的信用卡发卡机构，2021年末信用卡贷款规模达1543亿美元，市占率位居首位。
中美信用卡业务收入结构类似。美国信用卡业务收入主要有利息收入、支付手续费及使用费。利息收入构成信用卡收入的大头，美国信用卡的支付手续费相当于中国信用卡收入中的商户回佣;使用费用由年费、滞纳金、收支转移费等构成。美国信用卡业务的成本与中国相似，主要由资金成本、信用风险成本、运营成本、营销成本及合规成本等构成。
2018年以前，中国信用卡行业增长迅猛;2018年以来，我国信用卡市场增长放缓，竞争加剧。2018年初以来，我国信用卡贷款增速显著下降，21Q1信用卡贷款增速回升后再度走低，22Q3信用卡贷款同比增速仅4.3%。2021年末信用卡发行量8亿张，同比增长2.8%。中国信用卡业务处于白银时代。综合考虑人口下降及渗透率提升等，中长期来看，信用卡贷款规模仍有翻倍空间，但复合增速或5%左右。我国的信用卡市场已经从“跑马圈地”走向“精耕细作”。
投资建议：关注信用卡业务优势银行。美国信用卡贷款利率长期高于10%，是银行经营抵御低利率的有力武器。中长期来看，我们预计国内信用卡贷款复合增速5%左右，高增长时代不再，存量优势银行竞争优势易于延续，关注招行(03968,600036.SH)、平安(000001.SZ)、兴业(601166.SH)等信用卡业务发展较好的上市银行。
The Zhitong Finance App learned that the China Merchants Securities Bank team published a research report detailing the development status, profit model and market pattern of the US credit card industry. The team believes that in the future, China's credit card business has already entered the silver era, and more attention will be paid to intensive cultivation. Looking at the medium to long term, we expect the compound growth rate of domestic credit card loans to be around 5%. The era of high growth will no longer be there. The competitive advantage of banks with stock advantages will easily continue. Focus on listed banks with good credit card business development, such as CMB, Ping An, and Societe Generale.
The development of the credit card industry in the US has gone through three stages, and has been in a period of steady development for the past 20 years. In 1950-1958, the credit card business sprang up in the US; from 1958 to the end of the 20th century, the US credit card industry developed rapidly; since the end of the 20th century, the growth of the US credit card industry has slowed, and regulations have been gradually improved. Over the past 20 years, the US credit card market has been developing steadily. The balance of credit card loans in the US in 22Q3 was US$925 billion, which declined in stages after the 2008 financial crisis and during the pandemic.
VISA leads credit card organizations, and J.P. Morgan leads card issuers. The four major credit card organizations in the US credit card industry are American Express, Discover, MasterCard, and Visa. VISA is the leading card organization, with a market share of close to 40%. Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan is the largest credit card issuer in the US. At the end of 2021, credit card loans reached 154.3 billion US dollars, ranking first in market share.
The revenue structure of credit card businesses in China and the US is similar. The main income from the US credit card business is interest income, payment processing fees, and usage fees. Interest income makes up the majority of credit card revenue, and US credit card payment fees are equivalent to merchant rebates in Chinese credit card revenue; usage fees are comprised of annual fees, late fees, and transfer fees. The cost of a credit card business in the US is similar to that in China. It mainly consists of capital costs, credit risk costs, operating costs, marketing costs, and compliance costs.
Before 2018, China's credit card industry grew rapidly; since 2018, China's credit card market growth has slowed and competition has intensified. Since the beginning of 2018, the growth rate of credit card loans in China has declined markedly. The growth rate of credit card loans in 21Q1 has declined again after recovering. The year-on-year growth rate of credit card loans in 22Q3 is only 4.3%. At the end of 2021, 800 million credit cards were issued, an increase of 2.8% over the previous year. China's credit card business is in the silver age. Taking into account population decline and increasing penetration rate, etc., there is still room for credit card loans to double in the medium to long term, but the compound growth rate may be around 5%. China's credit card market has moved from “racing and roving” to “intensive cultivation.”
Investment advice: Focus on banks with advantages in credit card business. Interest rates on US credit card loans have been higher than 10% for a long time, which is a powerful weapon for bank operations to withstand low interest rates. Looking at the medium to long term, we expect a compound growth rate of around 5% for domestic credit card loans. The era of high growth will no longer exist. The competitive advantage of banks with stock advantages will easily continue. Focus on listed banks with good credit card business development such as CMB (03968,600036.SH), Ping An (000001.SZ), and Societe Generale (601166.SH).
