Report summary:
The biopharmaceutical industry has entered an era of prosperity, and the biopharmaceutical CDMO industry has rapidly expanded; by the end of 2021, the FDA has approved a total of 107 new antibody drugs, 36 of which were approved in 2015-2021. The CDMO industry expanded simultaneously during the biopharmaceutical outbreak period. Due to the strong adhesiveness and high barrier characteristics of the biopharmaceutical CDMO, the industry concentration is high, and the trend of strong players staying strong is obvious.
The integrated model highlights unique competitive advantages, and the Follow and Win the Folders strategy continues to gain strength; the company's deep accumulation in the drug discovery, drug development and commercialization stages has formed the industry's top technology platform. The integrated service capabilities help the efficiency of new drug development continue to improve, and the dual strategy drives the continuous growth of the company Backlog and Portfolio (2019H1-202H1 CAGR is 58.59% and 33.59% respectively). Of these, 46 projects are transferred to the outside world, the dual drive strategy The results have been remarkable.
Global layout empowers business partners; in the face of rising demand for global bioinnovative drug outsourcing, the company continues to expand global production capacity, and the global two-plant strategy has been effectively implemented. The company plans to reach 580,000 liters of raw liquid production capacity in 2026 (2022-2026 CAGR is 124%), fully empowering all kinds of customers around the world to meet the surging order demand of partners.
Short-term investment and financing fluctuations, Fang Xianzhuo was outstanding; since the Fed continued to raise interest rates in 2021/H2, global capital markets faced short-term liquidity tightening pressure. In 2022, global medical investment and financing fell 35.53%, a significant decline, but the company's various operating indicators were superior to peers. 2022H1's non-COVID-19 business revenue was 4,996 billion (+72.64%), and the number of projects (+31%) and on-hand orders (+35.82%) continued to rise; the company bucked the trend, once again verifying its strong billing ability and support model advantage.
Profit forecast: Given the booming development momentum of the industry and the company's strong order growth, the proper resolution of the superimposed UVL incident, and the further elimination of operational uncertainty, we expect the company to achieve operating revenue of 15.271 billion (+48.40%), 20.381 billion (+33.46%), 26.8 billion (+31.50%), and net profit of 4.55 billion (+34.28%), 5.971 billion (+31.23%), and 7.764 billion (+30.03%), we maintain it” “Buy” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuations, risk of technological change, risk of increased competition