智通财经APP获悉，信达证券发布研究报告称，保险行业经过近年来不断的清虚改革，当前行业负债端有望逐渐走出“磨底”阶段，主要险企2月保费表现不乏亮点。寿险2023年开门红营销活动的推进和收尾，保障型产品和储蓄型产品均有望贡献更大增量。各大险企寿险改革和产品结构调整的进一步深入，相关改革效果有望进一步显现，随着线下经济活动的不断恢复，保险消费有望继续回暖。
标的上，该行建议关注“长航行动”效果凸显，负债端表现有望领先的中国太保(601601.SH)、有望更加受益房地产改善和庞大优质的代理人队伍的中国平安(601318.SH)和负债端表现稳扎稳打的中国人寿(601628.SH)。
事件：
上市险企发布2023年1-2月保费数据，其中前2月累计寿险保费同比增速：平安寿(YoY+5.1%)>国寿(YoY+1.9%)>新华(YoY-0.1%)>人保寿(-7.1%);前2月累计财险保费同比增速：太保财(YoY+18.5%)>人保财(YoY+9.2%)>平安财(YoY+5.1%)。
▍信达证券主要观点如下：
寿险单月保费整体实现快速增长，负债端拐点或渐行渐近。
2023年2月各大上市险企保费整体表现优异，单月保费除太保(YoY-5.1%)外，其余均实现较快增长，春节结束后各大险企持续进行开门红营销活动，2月寿险保费整体快速回暖。
2023年2月单月保费增速：人保寿(YoY+53.0%)>国寿(YoY+28.8%)>平安寿(YoY+7.1%)>新华(YoY+6.2%)>太保寿(YoY-5.1%);1-2月累计保费增速：平安寿(YoY+5.1%)>国寿(YoY+1.9%)>新华(YoY-0.1%)>人保寿(-7.1%)。
整体来看，随着各大险企寿险改革进程的逐步深入，寿险业务表现提升效果逐渐显现，目前线下经济活动也逐步恢复正常，春节后随着各大险企加大后春节时段开门红营销活动的推广力度，产品供给端也有望迎来更多增量，寿险月度保费或有望迎来持续边际改善。
另外在2022年相对较低基数和储蓄型产品需求不断提升的背景下，主要上市险企寿险NBV缺口也有望逐步收窄，预计上市险企寿险2023年全年NBV有望同比转正。
财险维持高景气，2月保费快速提振。
上市财产险企2023年保费增速保持高景气，人保财、平安财和太保财1-2月累计保费均实现同比5%以上增长，太保财(YoY+18.5%)>人保财(YoY+9.2%)>平安财(YoY+5.1%)，其中平安财依靠2月单月同比+21.3%表现已经实现前2月累计保费同比增长(1月单月同比-2.1%)。
主要上市险企财险2月单月保费均实现同比20%+增长：太保财(YoY+34.5%)>人保财(YoY+24.6%)>平安财(YoY+21.3%)。
随着疫情政策不断优化和线下社会经济活动全面恢复正常，预计主要上市财险公司人保财、平安财和太保财全年保费有望达到双位数增长。
根据乘联会数据，2023年2月，狭义乘用车和广义乘用车零售辆数分别同比+10.3%和+10.4%，环比1月分别+7.7%和+9.0%，春节后乘用车销售有所回暖。
人保财2023年1-2月车险保费同比+6.3%，2月单月保费同比+18.2%，单月同比增速相比1月大幅上行。同时，随着近期全国各地进行各类乘用车降价促销，乘用车销量短期有望进一步上行，进而推动上市财险公司车险保费提升。
非车险方面，整体保费维持良好表现，尤其是农险和信用保证保险增长较快，2023年前2月人保财农险和信用保证险保费分别同比+26.5%和17.8%。
整体来看，该行认为，后续财产险企或将加大非车险产品创新和开发力度，头部财产险企有望通过精确的费率定价、高效的费用管理以及精细化运营不断提升盈利水平，继续优化成本管控并提振业绩。
风险因素：
险企改革不及预期、高质量代理人增员不及预期、开门红营销活动效果不及预期、自然灾害超预期多发。
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cinda Securities released a research report saying that after continuous clean-up reforms in the insurance industry in recent years, the current debt side of the industry is expected to gradually break out of the “bottom” stage. The premium performance of major insurers in February was full of highlights. With the promotion and completion of life insurance marketing activities for a good start in 2023, insurance products and savings products are expected to contribute more incrementally. With the further deepening of life insurance reforms and product restructuring by major insurers, the effects of related reforms are expected to be further demonstrated.As offline economic activity continues to resume, insurance consumption is expected to continue to pick up.
On the target, the bank suggests focusing on the effects of “Operation Changhang”. China Taibao (601601.SH), which is expected to lead the debt-side performance, China Ping An (601318.SH), which is expected to benefit more from real estate improvements and a huge team of high-quality agents, and China Life Insurance (), which is expected to benefit more from improvements in real estate and a huge team of high-quality agents, and China Life Insurance (), which has steady and steady performance on the debt-side. 601628.SH
Incidents:
Listed insurers released premium data for January-February 2023. Among them, the cumulative growth rate of life insurance premiums for the first 2 months was: Ping An Life (YoY +5.1%) > China Life Insurance (YoY +1.9%) > Xinhua (YoY -0.1%) > Renmin Insurance (-7.1%); cumulative financial insurance premiums for the first 2 months grew year-on-year: Taibao (YoY +18.5%) > People's Insurance (YoY +9.2%) > Ping An Cai (YoY +5.1%).
▍ The main views of Cinda Securities are as follows:
The overall monthly premiums for life insurance have grown rapidly, and the inflection point on the debt side may gradually approach.
The overall premium performance of major listed insurers in February 2023 was excellent. With the exception of Taibao (YoY -5.1%), the premiums in a single month all achieved relatively rapid growth. After the Spring Festival ended, major insurers continued to carry out good marketing activities, and overall life insurance premiums picked up rapidly in February.
Monthly premium growth rate in February 2023: People's Insurance (YoY +53.0%) > China Life Insurance (YoY +28.8%) > Ping An Life (YoY +7.1%) > Xinhua (YoY +6.2%) > Taibao Life (YoY -5.1%); January-February cumulative premium growth rate: Ping An Life Insurance (YoY +5.1%) > China Life Insurance (YoY +1.9%) > Xinhua (YoY -0.1%) > Life Insurance (-7.1%).
Overall, with the gradual deepening of the life insurance reform process of major insurers, the effects of improving life insurance business performance are gradually showing. Currently, offline economic activity is also gradually returning to normal. After the Spring Festival, as major insurers step up their promotion of good marketing activities during the post-Spring Festival period, the product supply side is also expected to experience more growth, and monthly life insurance premiums may be expected to continue to improve marginal.
Furthermore, against the backdrop of a relatively low base in 2022 and rising demand for savings products, the life insurance NBV gap of major listed insurers is also expected to gradually narrow. It is expected that the NBV of life insurance companies of listed insurers is expected to correct year-on-year for the full year of 2023.
Financial insurance maintained a high level of prosperity, and premiums picked up rapidly in February.
The premium growth rate of listed property insurers remained high in 2023. The cumulative premiums of People's Insurance, Ping An Cai, and Taibao Cai in January-February all increased by more than 5% year-on-year. Taibao Finance (YoY +18.5%) > People Insurance (YoY +9.2%) > Ping An Cai (YoY +5.1%), where Ping An Cai relied on +21.3% year-on-month performance in February to achieve a year-on-year increase in cumulative premiums for the previous 2 months (-2.1% compared to the same month in January).
Financial insurance premiums of major listed insurers all achieved 20% + year-on-year premiums in February: Taibao Cai (YoY +34.5%) > People's Insurance (YoY +24.6%) > Ping An Cai (YoY +21.3%).
As the epidemic policy continues to be optimized and offline social and economic activity fully returns to normal, premiums of major listed financial insurance companies Renmin Bao Cai, Ping An Cai and Taibao Cai are expected to reach double-digit growth throughout the year.
According to CPC data, in February 2023, retail sales of passenger cars in the narrow sense and passenger cars in the broad sense were +10.3% and +10.4%, respectively, and +7.7% and +9.0% respectively compared to January. Passenger car sales picked up after the Spring Festival.
People's Insurance Finance's car insurance premiums in January-February 2023 were +6.3% year on year, and monthly premiums in February were +18.2% year on year. The monthly year-on-year growth rate increased sharply compared to January. At the same time, with various passenger car price reduction promotions carried out across the country recently, passenger car sales are expected to rise further in the short term, which in turn will drive up car insurance premiums for listed financial insurance companies.
On the non-auto insurance side, overall premiums maintained good performance. In particular, agricultural insurance and credit guarantee insurance grew rapidly. In the first 2 months of 2023, premiums for People's Insurance Agricultural Insurance and Credit Guarantee Insurance were +26.5% and 17.8%, respectively, compared with the same period last year.
Overall, the bank believes that property insurers may increase their efforts to innovate and develop non-auto insurance products in the future. Leading property insurers are expected to continuously improve their profit levels through accurate rate pricing, efficient cost management, and refined operation, and continue to optimize cost control and boost performance.
Risk Factors:
The reform of insurers fell short of expectations, the increase in the number of high-quality agents fell short of expectations, the results of good marketing campaigns fell short of expectations, and there were many natural disasters that exceeded expectations.
