The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huaan Securities released a research report saying that green hydrogen is the main direction of hydrogen energy development in the future, and the importance of the electrolyzer as the core equipment for green hydrogen is highlighted. Electrolyzers are the core equipment of green hydrogen. The cost of the equipment reaches 50%, which has a very important impact on the preparation of green hydrogen in terms of energy consumption, safety, and cost reduction. Benefiting from strong demand in the downstream green hydrogen market, electrolyzer shipments are expected to explode in the next few years. The electrolyzer market will reach 1872/528 billion yuan in 2023/2025, and the CAGR for 2022-2025 is 141%. Among them, alkaline electrolyzers are the mainstream choice in the market, and proton exchange electrolyzers have a lot of room for growth in the future.
It is recommended to focus on:Leading electrolyzer companies Longji Green Energy (601012.SH) and Sunshine Power (300274.SZ); newly launched companies Huaguang Huanneng (600475.SH), Shenghui Technology (300423.SZ), Huadian Heavy Industries (), and Yili Clean Energy (). 601226.SH 600277.SH
The main views of Huaan Securities are as follows:
Green hydrogen is the main direction of hydrogen energy development in the future, and the importance of the electrolyzer as the core equipment for green hydrogen is highlighted.
Hydrogen energy is the secondary clean energy source with the greatest potential for sustainable development. According to the degree of carbon emissions generated by the hydrogen production process, it can be divided into gray hydrogen, blue hydrogen, and green hydrogen. Grey hydrogen is less expensive but more polluting. Green hydrogen satisfies the dual carbon requirement by using hydrogen produced from electrolyzed water using renewable energy sources. Electrolyzers are the core equipment of green hydrogen. The cost of the equipment reaches 50%, which has a very important impact on the preparation of green hydrogen in terms of energy consumption, safety, and cost reduction.
There is huge room for replacement of green hydrogen in the future, and demand for electrolyzers continues to rise due to technology iterations and falling electricity prices.
Currently, green hydrogen in the world and China accounts for less than 1% of hydrogen energy, mainly because the cost of green hydrogen is higher than the cost of gray hydrogen. In the future, with the combination of wind power photovoltaics and electrolyzed water to produce hydrogen and the cost efficiency of electrolyzers gradually increases, the cost of hydrogen production is expected to drop further. According to the bank's estimates, under ideal circumstances, the cost of green hydrogen could reach 5.8 yuan/kg, which is lower than the cost of gray hydrogen. In the future, with increased cost efficiency and policy driven by green hydrogen, global demand for green hydrogen will reach 1583/47.27 million tons in 2025/2030, with a CAGR of 156% in 2022-2025. Benefiting from strong demand in the downstream green hydrogen market, electrolyzer shipments are expected to explode in the next few years. The electrolyzer market size will reach 1872/528 billion yuan in 2023/2025, and CAGR of 141% in 2022-2025.
Alkaline electrolyzers are the mainstream choice in the market, and proton exchange electrolyzers have a lot of room for growth in the future.
The total output of the world's top 20 electrolyzer companies reached 14 GW in 2022, and the planned production capacity reached 26.4 GW in 2023. According to Bloomberg New Energy's forecast, the global electrolyzer installed scale will reach 242 GW in 2030. Alkaline electrolyzers are currently the first choice for hydrogen production companies with advantages such as high commercial maturity and low cost. In the future, they will gradually iterate in the direction of composite diaphragms and large standards. Due to its high cost, proton exchange membranes are currently being applied on a small scale, and there is still plenty of room for growth as their performance gradually improves in the future.
Risk warning:Policy support fell short of expectations, PV and wind power grid prices fell short of expectations, and product technology development fell short of expectations.