智通财经APP获悉，华安证券发布研究报告称，绿氢是未来氢能发展的主要方向，电解槽作为绿氢核心设备重要性凸显。电解槽是绿氢的核心设备，设备成本占比达到50%，在能耗、安全性、降本等方面对绿氢的制备产生十分重要的影响。受益于下游绿氢市场需求旺盛，电解槽出货量有望在未来几年迎来爆发期，2023/2025年电解槽市场规模将达到1872/5280亿元，2022-2025年CAGR为141%。其中，碱性电解槽为市场主流选择，质子交换电解槽未来具有较大的增长空间。
建议关注：电解槽龙头企业隆基绿能(601012.SH)、阳光电源(300274.SZ);新入局企业华光环能(600475.SH)、昇辉科技(300423.SZ)、华电重工(601226.SH)、亿利洁能(600277.SH)。
华安证券主要观点如下：
绿氢是未来氢能发展的主要方向，电解槽作为绿氢核心设备重要性凸显。
氢能是可持续发展最具潜力的二次清洁能源，根据制氢工艺所产生的碳排放程度可分为灰氢、蓝氢、绿氢，灰氢成本较低但污染较大，绿氢通过使用再生能源电解水制取的氢气，满足双碳要求。电解槽是绿氢的核心设备，设备成本占比达到50%，在能耗、安全性、降本等方面对绿氢的制备产生十分重要的影响。
绿氢未来代替空间巨大，技术迭代以及电价下降推动电解槽需求持续高增。
目前全球及中国绿氢在氢能占比较小均不到1%，主要由于绿氢成本高于灰氢成本，未来随着风电光伏与电解水制氢结合以及电解槽性价比逐步提升，制氢成本有望进一步下探，根据该行的测算，理想情况下绿氢成本可达到5.8元/kg，低于灰氢成本。未来随着绿氢性价比提升及政策驱动，2025/2030年全球绿氢需求量将达到1583/4727万吨，2022-2025年CAGR为156%;受益于下游绿氢市场需求旺盛，电解槽出货量有望在未来几年迎来爆发期，2023/2025年电解槽市场规模将达到1872/5280亿元，2022-2025年CAGR为141%。
碱性电解槽为市场主流选择，质子交换电解槽未来具有较大的增长空间。
2022年全球前20家电解槽企业产量合计达到14GW，2023年规划产能达到26.4GW，根据彭博新能源预测，2030年全球电解槽装机规模将达到242GW。碱性电解槽凭借商业成熟度高、成本低等优势为目前制氢企业的首选，未来逐步向复合隔膜、大标方方向迭代。质子交换膜由于其成本较高，目前应用规模较小，未来随着性能逐步提升，还具有较大的增长空间。
风险提示：政策支持力度不及预期、光伏风电发电上网价格不及预期、产品技术研发不及预期。
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huaan Securities released a research report saying that green hydrogen is the main direction of hydrogen energy development in the future, and the importance of the electrolyzer as the core equipment for green hydrogen is highlighted. Electrolyzers are the core equipment of green hydrogen. The cost of the equipment reaches 50%, which has a very important impact on the preparation of green hydrogen in terms of energy consumption, safety, and cost reduction. Benefiting from strong demand in the downstream green hydrogen market, electrolyzer shipments are expected to explode in the next few years. The electrolyzer market will reach 1872/528 billion yuan in 2023/2025, and the CAGR for 2022-2025 is 141%. Among them, alkaline electrolyzers are the mainstream choice in the market, and proton exchange electrolyzers have a lot of room for growth in the future.
It is recommended to focus on:Leading electrolyzer companies Longji Green Energy (601012.SH) and Sunshine Power (300274.SZ); newly launched companies Huaguang Huanneng (600475.SH), Shenghui Technology (300423.SZ), Huadian Heavy Industries (), and Yili Clean Energy (). 601226.SH 600277.SH
The main views of Huaan Securities are as follows:
Green hydrogen is the main direction of hydrogen energy development in the future, and the importance of the electrolyzer as the core equipment for green hydrogen is highlighted.
Hydrogen energy is the secondary clean energy source with the greatest potential for sustainable development. According to the degree of carbon emissions generated by the hydrogen production process, it can be divided into gray hydrogen, blue hydrogen, and green hydrogen. Grey hydrogen is less expensive but more polluting. Green hydrogen satisfies the dual carbon requirement by using hydrogen produced from electrolyzed water using renewable energy sources. Electrolyzers are the core equipment of green hydrogen. The cost of the equipment reaches 50%, which has a very important impact on the preparation of green hydrogen in terms of energy consumption, safety, and cost reduction.
There is huge room for replacement of green hydrogen in the future, and demand for electrolyzers continues to rise due to technology iterations and falling electricity prices.
Currently, green hydrogen in the world and China accounts for less than 1% of hydrogen energy, mainly because the cost of green hydrogen is higher than the cost of gray hydrogen. In the future, with the combination of wind power photovoltaics and electrolyzed water to produce hydrogen and the cost efficiency of electrolyzers gradually increases, the cost of hydrogen production is expected to drop further. According to the bank's estimates, under ideal circumstances, the cost of green hydrogen could reach 5.8 yuan/kg, which is lower than the cost of gray hydrogen. In the future, with increased cost efficiency and policy driven by green hydrogen, global demand for green hydrogen will reach 1583/47.27 million tons in 2025/2030, with a CAGR of 156% in 2022-2025. Benefiting from strong demand in the downstream green hydrogen market, electrolyzer shipments are expected to explode in the next few years. The electrolyzer market size will reach 1872/528 billion yuan in 2023/2025, and CAGR of 141% in 2022-2025.
Alkaline electrolyzers are the mainstream choice in the market, and proton exchange electrolyzers have a lot of room for growth in the future.
The total output of the world's top 20 electrolyzer companies reached 14 GW in 2022, and the planned production capacity reached 26.4 GW in 2023. According to Bloomberg New Energy's forecast, the global electrolyzer installed scale will reach 242 GW in 2030. Alkaline electrolyzers are currently the first choice for hydrogen production companies with advantages such as high commercial maturity and low cost. In the future, they will gradually iterate in the direction of composite diaphragms and large standards. Due to its high cost, proton exchange membranes are currently being applied on a small scale, and there is still plenty of room for growth as their performance gradually improves in the future.
Risk warning:Policy support fell short of expectations, PV and wind power grid prices fell short of expectations, and product technology development fell short of expectations.
