来源：戴康的策略世界
作者：韦冀星、戴康
央国企估值重塑引领“高股息”重回投资者视野。我们在此前文章中持续提示强调，23年“央国企重估”机会或将贯穿全年，23年的主线三条线索之一“政策路线切换”的核心为：“央国企重估+数字经济”成为宽信用“再加杠杆”的新抓手。近期“央国企重估”背景下，$中国移动(00941.HK)$、$中国电信(00728.HK)$有关进一步提升派息率的公告使得“高股息策略”成为部分投资者重点关注的对象。
我们此前剖析过传统高股息策略的本质：09.9以来，中证红利全收益指数年化收益率能够略微跑赢wind全A，但从相对跑赢区间来看，红利全收益指数只有约一半的时间相对Wind全A占优，且过去13年高股息率因子有效性并不高。同时高股息策略并不能相对偏股混合基金获得更显著的“低回撤”和“低波动”特征。
（1）传统高股息策略存在股息陷阱，即以往的高股息并不能保证未来它也是高股息，这导致未来的股息再投资受到影响；
（2）传统高股息还存在估值陷阱，即高股息策略的本质是深度价值股策略，企业的盈利端往往缺乏持续的增长，投资者不能获得“与企业共同成长”的收益，这导致策略在资本利得方面容易录得显著的负向贡献的同时，也难以实现真正“低波动、低回撤”的特性。
我们通过“分红意愿”和“盈利能力”两大维度，针对性地修复了两大“病因”，并构建了包含100只A股的 “A股高股息100”基础池和包含50只港股的“港股高股息50”股票池。而基于A股和港股的两大策略均是持续占优策略：不仅09年来年化收益在20%上下，能够大幅跑赢相应基准指数和偏股混合基金指数，且最大回撤更低，还具有真高股息特性；同时，从策略相对Wind全A/ Wind全港的走势来看，两大策略的占优区间也是不分牛熊，在过去13年能够持续跑赢占优。
“央国企重估”机会或将贯穿全年，进一步构建“中特估值高股息策略”。构建完全由央国企构成的“中特估值高股息策略”，其也能够实现“高收益+高股息+低回撤”，且资金容纳高。在“中国特色估值体系”推动之下，“中特估值高股息策略”不仅有望延续过去较为突出的表现，同时有望能够在央国企估值重估的beta加持下获得更强的上行动力。
风险提示：全球流动性恶化，国内复苏不确定性等。本文仅从策略角度提出相关标的，不代替广发证券研发中心相关行业研究团队观点。
编辑/Somer
Source: Dai Kang's World of Strategy
Authors: Wei Jixing, Dai Kang
The reshaping of central state-owned enterprise valuations has brought “high dividends” back into the eyes of investors. In previous articles, we have continued to emphasize that the “revaluation of central state-owned enterprises” opportunity in 23 may continue throughout the year. The core of the “policy route change” of one of the three main clues in '23 is that “central state-owned enterprise revaluation+digital economy” became a new starting point for “further leveraging” credit leniency.In the context of the recent “revaluation of central state-owned enterprises”$CHINA MOBILE(00941.HK)$,$CHINA TELECOM(00728.HK)$Announcements on further increases in payout ratios have made “high dividend strategies” the focus of some investors.
We have previously analyzed the essence of traditional high dividend strategies: since 09.9, the annualized yield of the China Securities Dividend Full Yield Index has been able to slightly outperform all Wind A, but judging from the relative outperform range, the dividend full yield index has only been superior to Wind All A for about half of the time, and the high dividend rate factor over the past 13 years has not been very effective. At the same time, high dividend strategies do not achieve more significant “low retracement” and “low volatility” characteristics compared to biased hybrid funds.
(1) There is a dividend trap in traditional high dividend strategies,That is, a high dividend in the past does not guarantee that it will also be a high dividend in the future, which will affect future dividend reinvestment;
(2) There is still a valuation trap for traditional high dividends,In other words, the essence of a high dividend strategy is a deep value stock strategy. The profit side of an enterprise often lacks continuous growth, and investors cannot obtain the benefits of “growing together with the enterprise”. As a result, while it is easy for the strategy to record significant negative contributions in terms of capital gains, it is also difficult to achieve the characteristics of true “low volatility and low retracement”.
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Through the two dimensions of “willingness to pay dividends” and “profitability,” we have fixed the two major “causes” in a targeted manner, and constructed the “100 High Dividend A Shares” base pool containing 100 A-shares and the “Hong Kong Stock High Dividend 50” stock pool containing 50 Hong Kong stocks. However, the two major strategies based on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are strategies that continue to dominate: not only were earnings of around 20% in 2009, which could significantly outperform the corresponding benchmark index and the partial hybrid fund index, and the maximum retracement was even lower, it also had really high dividend characteristics; at the same time, judging from the trend of the strategies compared to Wind's overall A/ Wind Hong Kong trend, the dominance range of the two major strategies was also undivided. They were able to continue to outperform in the past 13 years.
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The “revaluation of central state-owned enterprises” opportunity may continue throughout the year, further constructing a “high dividend strategy for valuations in China and Switzerland.”Establishing a “high dividend strategy with medium to special valuation” composed entirely of central state-owned enterprises can also achieve “high yield+high dividend+low retracement”, and the capital capacity is high. Driven by the “valuation system with Chinese characteristics,” the “Sino-Singapore Valuation High Dividend Strategy” is not only expected to continue its outstanding performance in the past, but is also expected to gain stronger upward momentum under the support of the revaluation beta of central state-owned enterprises.
Risk warning:Deterioration in global liquidity, uncertainty about domestic recovery, etc. This article only puts forward relevant targets from a strategic perspective and does not replace the views of the relevant industry research team at GF Securities R&D Center.
Editor/Somer
