观点 | “高股息策略”重回视野,“央国企重估”机会或将贯穿全年

Opinion | The “high dividend strategy” is back in sight, and the “central state-owned enterprise revaluation” opportunity may continue throughout the year

戴康的策略世界 ·  03/17 10:38

Source: Dai Kang's World of Strategy
Authors: Wei Jixing, Dai Kang

The reshaping of central state-owned enterprise valuations has brought “high dividends” back into the eyes of investors. In previous articles, we have continued to emphasize that the “revaluation of central state-owned enterprises” opportunity in 23 may continue throughout the year. The core of the “policy route change” of one of the three main clues in '23 is that “central state-owned enterprise revaluation+digital economy” became a new starting point for “further leveraging” credit leniency.In the context of the recent “revaluation of central state-owned enterprises”$CHINA MOBILE(00941.HK)$,$CHINA TELECOM(00728.HK)$Announcements on further increases in payout ratios have made “high dividend strategies” the focus of some investors.

  • However, traditional high dividend strategies do not have strong investment value in the medium to long term

We have previously analyzed the essence of traditional high dividend strategies: since 09.9, the annualized yield of the China Securities Dividend Full Yield Index has been able to slightly outperform all Wind A, but judging from the relative outperform range, the dividend full yield index has only been superior to Wind All A for about half of the time, and the high dividend rate factor over the past 13 years has not been very effective. At the same time, high dividend strategies do not achieve more significant “low retracement” and “low volatility” characteristics compared to biased hybrid funds.

  • Why can't traditional high dividend strategies continue to outperform all of Wind's? Two core “causes”:

(1) There is a dividend trap in traditional high dividend strategies,That is, a high dividend in the past does not guarantee that it will also be a high dividend in the future, which will affect future dividend reinvestment;

(2) There is still a valuation trap for traditional high dividends,In other words, the essence of a high dividend strategy is a deep value stock strategy. The profit side of an enterprise often lacks continuous growth, and investors cannot obtain the benefits of “growing together with the enterprise”. As a result, while it is easy for the strategy to record significant negative contributions in terms of capital gains, it is also difficult to achieve the characteristics of true “low volatility and low retracement”.

  • How to build an optimized high-dividend stock pool for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks?

Through the two dimensions of “willingness to pay dividends” and “profitability,” we have fixed the two major “causes” in a targeted manner, and constructed the “100 High Dividend A Shares” base pool containing 100 A-shares and the “Hong Kong Stock High Dividend 50” stock pool containing 50 Hong Kong stocks. However, the two major strategies based on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are strategies that continue to dominate: not only were earnings of around 20% in 2009, which could significantly outperform the corresponding benchmark index and the partial hybrid fund index, and the maximum retracement was even lower, it also had really high dividend characteristics; at the same time, judging from the trend of the strategies compared to Wind's overall A/ Wind Hong Kong trend, the dominance range of the two major strategies was also undivided. They were able to continue to outperform in the past 13 years.

  • The “revaluation of central state-owned enterprises” opportunity may continue throughout the year, further constructing a “high dividend strategy for valuations in China and Switzerland.”Establishing a “high dividend strategy with medium to special valuation” composed entirely of central state-owned enterprises can also achieve “high yield+high dividend+low retracement”, and the capital capacity is high. Driven by the “valuation system with Chinese characteristics,” the “Sino-Singapore Valuation High Dividend Strategy” is not only expected to continue its outstanding performance in the past, but is also expected to gain stronger upward momentum under the support of the revaluation beta of central state-owned enterprises.

  • Risk warning:Deterioration in global liquidity, uncertainty about domestic recovery, etc. This article only puts forward relevant targets from a strategic perspective and does not replace the views of the relevant industry research team at GF Securities R&D Center.


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