The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that the summer and fall season of 2023 is coming soon. With the orderly release of domestic flight volume control and the continuous increase in international routes, the bank believes that civil aviation passenger traffic is expected to rise further, supply pressure will gradually be digested, superimposed discount restrictions will continue to gain strength, and price performance is expected to continue to be impressive. Looking at the longer cycle, the pace of introduction of civil aviation aircraft slowed sharply in 20-22. Considering that balance sheet repair will still take time in 23, aircraft introduction will be difficult to accelerate, and the industry's theoretical supply will remain growing at a low level. As the epidemic recedes, the steady recovery in civil aviation demand is a probable event, and we continue to be optimistic about the general direction of the civil aviation industry cycle reversal.
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The report mentioned that in terms of the domestic flight market, since the Civil Aviation Administration's flight restriction policy continues, the domestic flight volume of civil aviation is close to the same period in 2019, but due to the increase in the proportion of wide-body aircraft launched, the domestic flight investment of the three major airlines slightly surpassed the same period in 2019, but the traffic volume was still slightly lower than the same period in 2019, and the passenger occupancy rate of Chunqiu and Jixiang all surpassed the same period in 2019. The passenger occupancy rate was around 5% below the same period in 2019; the international market continued to recover, and all three major shipping investments had recovered to 85% More than 10% in the same period in 2019. Among them, China Southern Airlines has recovered rapidly. Operating investment has recovered to more than 20% in the same period in 2019. The pace of recovery for Chunqiu international flights is fast, and investment has recovered to more than 30% of the same period in 2019, of which Jixiang's recovery ratio is 44.2%; the Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan markets have recovered faster than international flights, and regional flight investment by all airlines has recovered to more than 30% in the same period in 2019.
The bank said it continues to be optimistic about the reversal of supply and demand for civil aviation in China.The summer and fall season of 2023 is coming soon. With the orderly liberalization of domestic flight volume control and the continuous increase in international routes, the bank believes that civil aviation passenger traffic is expected to rise further, supply pressure will gradually be digested, superimposed discount restrictions will continue to gain strength, and price performance is expected to continue to be impressive. For example, looking at a longer cycle, the pace of introduction of civil aviation aircraft slowed sharply in 20-22. Considering that balance sheet recovery will still take time, aircraft introduction will be difficult to accelerate in 23, and the industry's theoretical supply will remain low. As the epidemic recedes, the steady recovery in civil aviation demand is a probable event, and we continue to be optimistic about the general direction of the civil aviation industry cycle reversal.
Recently, the bank split the reports of eight overseas airlines, including the US and Japan. The average passenger kilometer earnings of each airline was significantly higher than the same period in '19, and the performance gradually approached or surpassed the same period in '19. The operating performance of overseas airlines in 2022 shows that although the recovery in volume is not complete, prices remain strong, and the trend continues to improve.The bank believes that freight rates in China's civil aviation industry are expected to remain strong in 2023, and as demand picks up further, strong prices in 2023 may mean the full arrival of the 2024 boom cycle, I recommend Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines
Risk warning:Macroeconomic recovery fell short of expectations, oil prices and exchange rates fluctuated sharply, and safety incidents.