智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研究报告称，2023年夏秋换季即将到来，伴随着国内线航班量管控的有序放开以及国际航线的持续增班，该行认为民航客流有望进一步回升，供给压力逐步被消化，叠加限折令的持续发力，价格表现有望持续亮眼。从更长的周期来看，20-22年民航飞机引进速度大幅放缓，23年考虑到资产负债表修复仍需时日，飞机引进难以加速，行业理论供给仍将保持低位增长，而伴随着疫情褪去，民航需求稳步复苏是大概率事件，继续看好民航业周期反转的大方向。
推荐：春秋航空(601021.SH)、吉祥航空(603885.SH)、中国国航(601111.SH)、南方航空(600029.SH)、中国东航(600115.SH)、华夏航空(002928.SZ)。
报告提到，国内线市场方面，由于民航局限制航班政策尚在持续，民航国内线航班量与2019年同期接近，但由于宽体机投放比例增加，三大航国内线运投小幅超越2019年同期，但运量仍小幅低于2019年同期，客座率在75%左右，低于2019年同期10%左右，春秋、吉祥国内线业务量均超越2019年同期，客座率在85%左右，低于2019年同期水平5%左右;国际市场持续修复，三大航运投均已恢复至2019年同期的10%以上，其中南航复苏较快，运投已经恢复至2019年同期的20%以上，春秋吉祥国际线复苏节奏较快，运投已经恢复至2019年同期的30%以上，其中吉祥恢复比例为44.2%;港澳台市场复苏节奏快于国际线，各航司地区线运投均已恢复至2019年同期的30%以上。
该行称，继续看好我国民航供需反转方向。2023年夏秋换季即将到来，伴随着国内线航班量管控的有序放开以及国际航线的持续增班，该行认为民航客流有望进一步回升，供给压力逐步被消化，叠加限折令的持续发力，价格表现有望持续亮眼。如从更长的周期来看，20-22年民航飞机引进速度大幅放缓，23年考虑到资产负债表修复仍需时日，飞机引进难以加速，行业理论供给仍将保持低位增长，而伴随着疫情褪去，民航需求稳步复苏是大概率事件，继续看好民航业周期反转的大方向。
近期该行拆分了美国、日本等八家海外航司的报表，各航司客公里收益水平均显著高于19年同期，业绩也逐步接近或超越19年同期，海外航司2022年的运营表现说明尽管量的恢复尚不完整，但价格仍然保持强势，且趋势持续向好。该行认为2023年我国民航业运价有望保持坚挺，且随着需求的进一步回暖，2023年价格坚挺或意味着2024年景气周期的全面到来，推荐春秋航空、吉祥航空、中国国航、南方航空、中国东航、华夏航空
风险提示：宏观经济复苏不及预期，油价汇率剧烈波动，安全事故。
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that the summer and fall season of 2023 is coming soon. With the orderly release of domestic flight volume control and the continuous increase in international routes, the bank believes that civil aviation passenger traffic is expected to rise further, supply pressure will gradually be digested, superimposed discount restrictions will continue to gain strength, and price performance is expected to continue to be impressive. Looking at the longer cycle, the pace of introduction of civil aviation aircraft slowed sharply in 20-22. Considering that balance sheet repair will still take time in 23, aircraft introduction will be difficult to accelerate, and the industry's theoretical supply will remain growing at a low level. As the epidemic recedes, the steady recovery in civil aviation demand is a probable event, and we continue to be optimistic about the general direction of the civil aviation industry cycle reversal.
Recommended:Spring Airlines (601021.SH), Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH), Air China (), China Southern Airlines (), China Eastern Airlines (), China Eastern Airlines (), China Eastern Airlines (002928.SZ). 601111.SH 600029.SH 600115.SH
The report mentioned that in terms of the domestic flight market, since the Civil Aviation Administration's flight restriction policy continues, the domestic flight volume of civil aviation is close to the same period in 2019, but due to the increase in the proportion of wide-body aircraft launched, the domestic flight investment of the three major airlines slightly surpassed the same period in 2019, but the traffic volume was still slightly lower than the same period in 2019, and the passenger occupancy rate of Chunqiu and Jixiang all surpassed the same period in 2019. The passenger occupancy rate was around 5% below the same period in 2019; the international market continued to recover, and all three major shipping investments had recovered to 85% More than 10% in the same period in 2019. Among them, China Southern Airlines has recovered rapidly. Operating investment has recovered to more than 20% in the same period in 2019. The pace of recovery for Chunqiu international flights is fast, and investment has recovered to more than 30% of the same period in 2019, of which Jixiang's recovery ratio is 44.2%; the Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan markets have recovered faster than international flights, and regional flight investment by all airlines has recovered to more than 30% in the same period in 2019.
The bank said it continues to be optimistic about the reversal of supply and demand for civil aviation in China.The summer and fall season of 2023 is coming soon. With the orderly liberalization of domestic flight volume control and the continuous increase in international routes, the bank believes that civil aviation passenger traffic is expected to rise further, supply pressure will gradually be digested, superimposed discount restrictions will continue to gain strength, and price performance is expected to continue to be impressive. For example, looking at a longer cycle, the pace of introduction of civil aviation aircraft slowed sharply in 20-22. Considering that balance sheet recovery will still take time, aircraft introduction will be difficult to accelerate in 23, and the industry's theoretical supply will remain low. As the epidemic recedes, the steady recovery in civil aviation demand is a probable event, and we continue to be optimistic about the general direction of the civil aviation industry cycle reversal.
Recently, the bank split the reports of eight overseas airlines, including the US and Japan. The average passenger kilometer earnings of each airline was significantly higher than the same period in '19, and the performance gradually approached or surpassed the same period in '19. The operating performance of overseas airlines in 2022 shows that although the recovery in volume is not complete, prices remain strong, and the trend continues to improve.The bank believes that freight rates in China's civil aviation industry are expected to remain strong in 2023, and as demand picks up further, strong prices in 2023 may mean the full arrival of the 2024 boom cycle, I recommend Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines
Risk warning:Macroeconomic recovery fell short of expectations, oil prices and exchange rates fluctuated sharply, and safety incidents.
