Source: Guoxin Securities
Author: Xie Qi
Report Title: “Guoxin Securities - E-commerce Data for January-February 2023: Offline Recovery Does Not Change the Trend of Increased E-Commerce Penetration Rate”
The National Bureau of Statistics released online retail sales data for social consumer goods for January-February 2023.
In January-February 2023, retail sales of consumer goods totaled 7.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.5% over the previous year. Among them, retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles amounted to 7.0 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.0%.
National online retail sales reached 2.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.2% over the previous year. Among them, online retail sales of physical goods amounted to 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.3%, accounting for 22.7% of total retail sales of consumer goods; in the online retail sales of physical goods, food, clothing, and consumer goods increased by 5.3%, 4.0%, and 5.7% respectively.
Guoxin Internet opinion: 1) Overall: The impact of the epidemic has gradually subsided, and the social zero growth rate has been corrected. It is expected that the social zero growth rate will continue to recover in March.Total retail sales of social consumer goods in January-February 2023 were 7.7 trillion yuan, +3.5% year on year, lower than the growth rate for the same period in 2022 (yoy +6.7%). Compared with the growth rate in December (yoy -1.8%), there was a recovery compared to the growth rate in December (YOY -1.8%), partly due to sluggish automobile and communications sales (YOY -9.4%/-8.2%).
2) Online retail: E-commerce is more efficient in terms of information flow/logistics/capital flow. The e-commerce penetration rate continues to increase. In January-February, the online rate increased 0.7pct to 22.7% year-on-year.
3) Online retail categories:Live e-commerce has greatly improved the online apparel shopping experience. In January-February, online clothing retail sales grew 4%, up from 3.9% in the same period last year. The offline recovery led to a partial diversion of online GMV. Online retail sales of food and consumer goods were 5.3%/5.7% year on year, down from 12.7%/15.1% in January-February '22.
Under the trend of recovering consumption, we are optimistic about the development of the e-commerce sector in 2023. The recommended order of key targets is$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$,$BABA-SW (09988.HK)$,$Vipshop (VIPS.US)$with$JD-SW (09618.HK)$.
Editor/Somer