理想汽车-W(2015.HK):经营效率出众 2023年彰显竞争优势

Ideal Automobile-W (2015.HK): Outstanding operating efficiency, showing competitive advantage in 2023

平安證券 ·  03/16  · Researches


Ideal Auto released results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2022. In 2022, the company achieved operating income of 45.29 billion yuan (+67.7%), and net loss reached 2.001 billion yuan (up 526.0% year on year). Among them, the company achieved operating income of 17.65 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, an increase of 66.2%/88.9% over the same period last year, and achieved net profit of 260 million yuan.

Ping An's point of view:

Fourth-quarter deliveries were in line with expectations. The company delivered 46,319 units in the fourth quarter of 2022, an increase of 31.5% over the previous year and an increase of 74.6% over the previous quarter. The delivery volume for the fourth quarter was in line with the delivery guidelines previously given by the company. The company achieved vehicle sales revenue of 17.27 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, and corresponding bicycle revenue reached 373,000 yuan. This was mainly due to the increase in the company's bicycle revenue due to L9 delivery. In terms of gross profit, the company's gross margin of automobile sales reached 20.0% in the fourth quarter. Compared with the first and second quarters of '22, there was a decline, mainly due to the impact of Ideal ONE inventory and Ideal L8 climbing. The delivery guidelines given by the company for the first quarter of 2023 are 52,000 to 55,000 units, the revenue guide is 17.45 billion to 18.45 billion yuan. The corresponding bicycle revenue is about 335,000 yuan. The company delivered 15,141 units in January. It is expected that the delivery volume in March will exceed 20,000 units.

Expense control was good in the fourth quarter, and profits were achieved in a single quarter. The company achieved net profit of 260 million yuan in the fourth quarter. This was mainly due to the company's good ability to manage expenses in the fourth quarter. In terms of R&D expenses, the company's R&D expenses in the fourth quarter were 2.07 billion yuan, an increase of only 14.7% over the previous quarter. The corresponding R&D expenses ratio was 11.7%. The annual R&D expenses were 6.78 billion yuan, an increase of 106.3% over the previous year. In terms of sales management expenses, the company's sales management expenses in the fourth quarter were 1.63 billion yuan, an increase of only 8.1% over the previous month. The sales management expenses rate was 9.2%, the company's annual sales management expenses were 5.67 billion yuan, and the sales management expenses ratio was 12.5%. Lower than the R&D expenses rate, the number of stores sold by the company will reach 400 in 2023, an increase of about 112 over the end of 2022, and sink to second- and third-tier cities.

The company's goal in 2023 is to occupy 20% of the 30-500,000 yuan luxury SUV market share. The company expects the steady state monthly sales of the three L7/8/9 models (excluding the Air version) to be 25,000 units, and the L7/L8 Air models will be delivered in early April. At that time, the company's steady state monthly sales volume will reach 30,000 units. In terms of pure electric models, the company's first pure electric model will be mass-produced at the Beijing plant, but it is not expected to be marketed and delivered in '23. Furthermore, the fourth model in the company's L series, the L6, is expected to be launched in 2024, and its price is expected to be 20-30 thousand yuan.

Profit forecast and investment advice: Based on the company's latest situation, we adjusted the company's 2023-2024 net profit forecast to 1.71 billion/5.54 billion (the original forecast was 1.52 billion/6.61 billion yuan). The 2025 revenue forecast for the new company was 224.07 billion yuan, and the corresponding net profit forecast was 11.30 billion yuan. The company is the fastest car company among the new car builders to complete the new model layout in 2023. At the same time, we believe that the company is one of the new car companies with the strongest certainty of growth in 2023. It is expected that the L7\ L8\ L9 models will achieve rapid growth in 23 and maintain the company's “recommended” rating.

Risk warning: 1) The company's three models did not sell well in '23, causing the company's performance to fall short of expectations; 2) The company has not yet launched any pure electric models, and the market's acceptance of the company's pure electric models has yet to be verified; 3) After the pure electric model is listed, the company's various investments may increase dramatically.

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