Zhitong Financial APP learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that the overseas Aviation Department's operating performance in 2022 shows that although the volume recovery is not complete, prices remain strong and the trend continues to improve. The bank believes that the freight rate of China's civil aviation industry is expected to remain strong in 2023, and with the further recovery of demand, the strong price in 2023 may mean the full arrival of the 2024 business cycle, continue to be optimistic about the general direction of the reversal of the civil aviation cycle, and recommend Spring and Autumn Airlines (601021.SH), auspicious Airlines (603885.SH), Air China Limited (601111.SH), China Southern Airlines Company (600029.SH), China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH), China Airlines (002928.SZ).
The main points of Guoxin Securities are as follows:
The performance of overseas civil aviation industry is of reference value to the recovery rhythm of China's civil aviation.
After the impact of Omicron virus strain in early 2022, the global civil aviation industry has started a real full reversal, and now it has entered a relatively stable state of recovery, and the operation performance is steady and upward. The starting point of the full recovery of China's civil aviation industry lags behind overseas for about three quarters, and the bank believes that the operational performance of the overseas Aviation Department has a certain reference significance for the recovery pace of China's civil aviation industry.
The freight rate performance of the overseas Aviation Department is strong, and the driving performance is gradually approaching or even surpassing that before the epidemic.
The bank analyzed the characteristics of overseas aviation department's post-epidemic recovery by splitting the quarterly reports of the four major US airlines, Japan Airlines, all Nippon Airways, Lufthansa and Indigo Airlines of India. As of 4Q22, there is still a slight gap in the overall volume level of the above aviation division compared with 2019, but the freight rate performance is strong, especially after the 2Q22, the freight rates of all aviation departments have risen sharply compared with the same period in 19 years, of which the four major shipping prices of 4Q22 in the United States have increased by about 20% compared with the same period in 19 years, the two aviation departments in Japan have increased by about 10%, and Lufthansa and Indigo Airlines in Germany have increased by more than 30%. Looking to the future, the aviation divisions as a whole show more optimistic expectations for the business data in 2023, specifically reflected in the further recovery of business volume, and the performance is further close to or even beyond 2019.
Continue to be optimistic about the reversal of supply and demand in China's civil aviation.
At present, the number of flights on domestic routes has returned to the level of the same period in 19 years, and is expected to be further released after the summer and autumn of 2023. The volume of passenger flights on international (including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) routes will return to about 20% of that in the same period in 2019, and will continue to work overtime. In addition, thanks to the continued growth of public and business passenger flow after the Spring Festival, the freight rates of civil aviation domestic routes remain strong.
The speed of China's civil aviation aircraft introduction slowed down sharply from 2020 to 2022, considering that it will take time to repair the balance sheet, it is difficult to accelerate aircraft introduction, and the supply of industry theory will remain at a low growth rate. With the fading of the epidemic, the steady recovery of civil aviation demand is a high probability event. Civil aviation supply and demand is expected to gradually change from oversupply to a balance between supply and demand, and continue to deduce that supply exceeds demand, and the result is a significant increase in freight rates as a whole.
Risk Tips:Macroeconomic recovery was less than expected, oil prices and exchange rates fluctuated sharply, and security accidents.