智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研究报告称，海外航司2022年的运营表现说明尽管量的恢复尚不完整，但价格仍然保持强势，且趋势持续向好。该行认为2023年我国民航业运价有望保持坚挺，且随着需求的进一步回暖，2023年价格强势或意味着2024年景气周期的全面到来，继续看好民航业周期反转的大方向，推荐春秋航空(601021.SH)、吉祥航空(603885.SH)、中国国航(601111.SH)、南方航空(600029.SH)、中国东航(600115.SH)、华夏航空(002928.SZ)。
国信证券主要观点如下：
海外民航业表现对我国民航复苏节奏具备参考价值。
2022年初奥密克戎毒株的冲击过后，全球民航业开启了真正意义上的全面反转，目前已经进入到相对稳定的复苏状态，运营表现平稳向上。我国民航业全面复苏的启动点滞后于海外大约三个季度，该行认为对海外航司的运营表现对我国民航业的复苏节奏具备一定参考意义。
海外航司运价表现强势，驱动业绩逐步接近乃至超越疫情前。
该行通过拆分美国四大航，日本的日本航空、全日空，德国汉莎航空以及印度靛蓝航空的季度报表，分析海外航司疫后复苏特征。截至4Q22，上述航司运量水平整体相比2019年仍有些许差距，但运价表现均表现强势，尤其是2Q22后，各航司单位运价相比19年同期均出现大幅上涨，其中4Q22美国四大航运价相比19年同期涨幅达到20%左右，日本两家航司为10%左右，德国汉莎、印度靛蓝航空运价涨幅更是达到了30%以上。展望未来，各航司整体对2023年的经营数据表现出较为乐观的预期，具体体现为业务量进一步恢复，业绩进一步接近甚至超越2019年。
继续看好我国民航供需反转方向。
当前国内航线航班量已经恢复至19年同期水平，并有望于2023夏秋换季后进一步放量，国际(含港澳台)航线客运航班量恢复至2019年同期的20%左右，并将持续加班，此外，得益于春节后公商务客流持续增长，叠加发改委限折令发力，民航国内航线运价保持强势。
2020-2022年我国民航飞机引进速度大幅放缓，考虑到资产负债表修复仍需时日，飞机引进难以加速，行业理论供给仍将保持低增速。伴随着疫情褪去，民航需求稳步复苏是大概率事件，民航供需有望从供大于求逐步转化为供需平衡，并向供不应求持续演绎，而供不应求的结果就是运价水平的整体显著提升。
风险提示：宏观经济复苏不及预期，油价汇率剧烈波动，安全事故。
Zhitong Financial APP learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that the overseas Aviation Department's operating performance in 2022 shows that although the volume recovery is not complete, prices remain strong and the trend continues to improve. The bank believes that the freight rate of China's civil aviation industry is expected to remain strong in 2023, and with the further recovery of demand, the strong price in 2023 may mean the full arrival of the 2024 business cycle, continue to be optimistic about the general direction of the reversal of the civil aviation cycle, and recommend Spring and Autumn Airlines (601021.SH), auspicious Airlines (603885.SH), Air China Limited (601111.SH), China Southern Airlines Company (600029.SH), China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH), China Airlines (002928.SZ).
The main points of Guoxin Securities are as follows:
The performance of overseas civil aviation industry is of reference value to the recovery rhythm of China's civil aviation.
After the impact of Omicron virus strain in early 2022, the global civil aviation industry has started a real full reversal, and now it has entered a relatively stable state of recovery, and the operation performance is steady and upward. The starting point of the full recovery of China's civil aviation industry lags behind overseas for about three quarters, and the bank believes that the operational performance of the overseas Aviation Department has a certain reference significance for the recovery pace of China's civil aviation industry.
The freight rate performance of the overseas Aviation Department is strong, and the driving performance is gradually approaching or even surpassing that before the epidemic.
The bank analyzed the characteristics of overseas aviation department's post-epidemic recovery by splitting the quarterly reports of the four major US airlines, Japan Airlines, all Nippon Airways, Lufthansa and Indigo Airlines of India. As of 4Q22, there is still a slight gap in the overall volume level of the above aviation division compared with 2019, but the freight rate performance is strong, especially after the 2Q22, the freight rates of all aviation departments have risen sharply compared with the same period in 19 years, of which the four major shipping prices of 4Q22 in the United States have increased by about 20% compared with the same period in 19 years, the two aviation departments in Japan have increased by about 10%, and Lufthansa and Indigo Airlines in Germany have increased by more than 30%. Looking to the future, the aviation divisions as a whole show more optimistic expectations for the business data in 2023, specifically reflected in the further recovery of business volume, and the performance is further close to or even beyond 2019.
Continue to be optimistic about the reversal of supply and demand in China's civil aviation.
At present, the number of flights on domestic routes has returned to the level of the same period in 19 years, and is expected to be further released after the summer and autumn of 2023. The volume of passenger flights on international (including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) routes will return to about 20% of that in the same period in 2019, and will continue to work overtime. In addition, thanks to the continued growth of public and business passenger flow after the Spring Festival, the freight rates of civil aviation domestic routes remain strong.
The speed of China's civil aviation aircraft introduction slowed down sharply from 2020 to 2022, considering that it will take time to repair the balance sheet, it is difficult to accelerate aircraft introduction, and the supply of industry theory will remain at a low growth rate. With the fading of the epidemic, the steady recovery of civil aviation demand is a high probability event. Civil aviation supply and demand is expected to gradually change from oversupply to a balance between supply and demand, and continue to deduce that supply exceeds demand, and the result is a significant increase in freight rates as a whole.
Risk Tips:Macroeconomic recovery was less than expected, oil prices and exchange rates fluctuated sharply, and security accidents.
