On March 14, gold stocks rallied collectively.
On the news side, the rise in overnight risk aversion and the slowdown in the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates led to a sharp rise of 2.77% in the international gold price and 6.85% in the international silver price.
In addition, the world's central banks continue to buy gold this year, and the World Platinum Investment Association (WPIC), a British research agency, recently released a forecast that there will be a gap of 556000 ounces (about 17 tons) in global platinum supply and demand in 2023.
Specifically from the perspective of gold price analysis frameworkOn the one hand, there is a negative correlation with the dollar, and on the other hand, the price of gold usually shows a negative correlation with the real interest rate of the dollar.
Overnight Silicon Valley banking turmoil continued to ferment, the market does not seem to pay for the Fed rescue, a number of bank stocks continue to be bloodwashed, leading to a rise in risk aversion in the market.
The market believes that the possibility of a radical interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve has dropped sharply as a result of the great pressure on Bank of America Corporation's system.
According to the Societe Generale Securities Research report, the CME Fed observation tool shows that the market believes that the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March has dropped to 0, while the possibility of not raising interest rates has risen to 38%, the possibility of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 62%, and interest rates may be cut by 50 basis points before the end of the year.
On the morning of the 14th, Nomura Securities even thought that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March.
As a result, the overnight international gold price rose 2.77%, breaking through the $1900 / oz mark, and the international silver price rose 6.85%.
Southwest Securities said that the Fed interest rate hike is coming to an end, under the background of the switching of the monetary cycle, the real yield on long-end US Treasuries and the large cycle of the dollar are still downward, the gold price center still has upward space, and the strategic allocation status of gold is enhanced.
Global central banks "grab" gold
According to the data, central bank purchases of gold totaled 1136 tons in 2022, the highest net purchase since records began in 1950, breaking the 1971 record for net purchases of dollars decoupled from gold, and the 13th consecutive year of net gold purchases by central banks around the world.
Not only that, according to the latest data compiled by the World Gold Council, the net gold reserves of central banks around the world increased by 77 tons in January, compared with December last year.A month-on-month increase of 192%Exceeding the range of 20-60 tons of net purchases in the past 10 months.
As of the end of February, gold reserves in China's foreign exchange reserves reached 65.92 million ounces (about 2050.34 tons), an increase of 800000 ounces (24.88 tons) from January. This is the fourth month in a row that China's foreign exchange reserves have increased their gold holdings. The central bank of Singapore announced that it had bought 45 tons of gold, up 29% from a month earlier.
According to the World Gold Council, there are two main drivers for central bank purchases: the risk aversion role of gold in times of crisis and the role of gold as a long-term store of value (against inflation).
It is worth noting thatCentral banks around the world had previously increased their gold purchases significantly in 2011 and 2018, respectively, and gold prices rose in the corresponding years and continued to rise in the following year.
Platinum changes from surplus to shortage
Platinum, another big precious metal, also has new news recently.
According to Interface News, the World Platinum Investment Association (WPIC), a British research agency, recently released a forecast that there will be a gap of 556000 ounces (about 17 tons) in global supply and demand in 2023, exceeding the previously expected shortfall of 303000 ounces.
The World Platinum Investment Association also said recentlyAfter two years of market surplus, the platinum market will enter a shortage in 2023It expects platinum supply to grow only slightly by 3% in 2023, while demand will rebound strongly by 24%, and the market is expected to have a shortfall of 17 tons for the whole year.
On the supply and demand side, in South Africa, which accounts for 70% of the world's production, there is a continuing power shortage and fragile infrastructure, with frequent power outages, while platinum mining and smelting require a lot of electricity. South Africa's output in 2022 is 15% lower than in 2021. WPIC expects a further decline in 2023.
On the demand side, according to the WPIC report, platinum is a key component in the production and use of green hydrogen. Hydrogen energy demand for platinum has increased significantly in the past two years, and the demand for platinum in this sector will reach 35 per cent of the total annual demand for platinum by 2040; in addition, the demand for platinum in the automotive sector will grow by about 10 per cent this year. Capacity expansion in the glass industry will also be the main driver of demand growth in the platinum industry.
Oriental Securities Research News pointed out that from a financial point of view, China is highly dependent on the import of platinum group metals, with its strategic value increasing, China may also establish a strategic reserve, platinum group metals strategic attribute is prominent.
Edit / phoebe