Zhitong Financial APP learned that Huaxin Securities released a research report saying that thanks to the dual logic of increasing the proportion of hydrogen energy and green hydrogen in hydrogen energy, the hydrogen production industry from electrolytic water will grow rapidly, giving the industry a "recommended" rating. At present, hydrogen energy accounts for only 0.1% of the global energy. According to the forecast of the world's major energy research institutions, the proportion of hydrogen energy will reach 12-22% in 2050. And the strategic significance of hydrogen energy in the context of carbon neutralization is prominent, the global policy is highly inclined to hydrogen energy, and the growth certainty is strong. Among them, the economy of hydrogen production from electrolytic water is becoming more and more obvious, and the industry welcomes the good opportunity for development.
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The main points of Huaxin Securities are as follows:
Carbon neutralization is approaching, hydrogen energy is of great strategic significance.
Carbon neutralization has become an important issue around the world. Hydrogen energy has the characteristics of diverse sources, clean and low carbon, flexible and efficient, and rich application scenarios. It will gradually replace fossil fuels such as oil and coal and become an important carrier of global energy. At present, hydrogen energy accounts for only 0.1% of the global energy. According to the forecast of the world's major energy research institutions, the proportion of hydrogen energy will reach 12-22% in 2050.
The world's major economies have formulated national-level development strategies for hydrogen energy.
Japan plans to have a hydrogen supply of 3 million tons per year in 2030 and further increase to 20 million tons per year in 2050; the United States plans to achieve a clean hydrogen production capacity of 10 million tons per year in 2030; in addition, the United States provides a tax credit for hydrogen production through IRA; Europe plans to install at least 40GW renewable hydrogen cell in 2025-2030 to produce 10 million tons of renewable hydrogen energy and to support hydrogen energy development through carbon tariffs. On the other hand, China has made it clear that hydrogen energy is an important part of the future national energy system, raising it to the height of the national energy strategy. Generally speaking, the strategic significance of hydrogen energy in the context of carbon neutralization is prominent, the global policy is highly skewed towards hydrogen energy, and the growth certainty is strong.
The economy of hydrogen production from electrolytic water is becoming more and more obvious, and the industry welcomes the good opportunity for development.
The mainstream hydrogen production methods include fossil fuel hydrogen production, industrial by-product hydrogen production and electrolytic water hydrogen production. According to the calculation of the bank, under the electricity price of 0.4 yuan / kWh, the cost of hydrogen production by alkaline electrolysis is about 25.79 yuan / kg,PEM and 32.57 yuan / kg. The cost of hydrogen production by alkaline electrolysis is lower than the selling price of hydrogen and similar to that of blue hydrogen. The cost of hydrogen production from electrolytic water is highly sensitive to the electricity price. If the electricity price is less than 0.2yuan / kWh, the cost of hydrogen production from electrolytic water will be lower than that of gray hydrogen in most scenarios, and if it is less than 0.1yuan / kWh, the price can be completely parity. In the market-oriented electricity price environment, zero electricity price or even negative electricity price occurs from time to time. If we make full use of the fluctuation of electricity price, hydrogen production from electrolytic water can achieve high benefits. At present, the proportion of hydrogen production from electrolytic water in the world is only about 0.15%. Looking forward to the future, green hydrogen is expected to benefit from the dual logic of increasing the proportion of hydrogen energy and green hydrogen in hydrogen energy, ushering in rapid growth, and water electrolysis equipment will be the first to benefit. The bank predicts that the global market for water electrolysis equipment will reach 16.7 billion yuan in 2025, the CAGR will reach 106% in 2022-2025, and the cumulative market size of water electrolysis equipment will be nearly 1.5 trillion in 2050.
Multi-party entry, preemptive opportunity
At present, Chinese enterprises occupy the main share of global electrolytic cell equipment. According to hydrogen energy observation, the global electrolytic cell market shipments in 2022 are about 1GW, while the domestic electrolytic cell shipments are close to 750MW. There are three types of participants in domestic electrolytic cell equipment, the first category is 718, Jingli, mainland and other established electrolytic cell enterprises, which have deep technical precipitation and high market share; the second category is Longji green energy, solar power and other photovoltaic leading enterprises with strong financial and technical strength, photovoltaic business and electrolytic water hydrogen production business are highly coordinated The third category is emerging forces such as Zenghui Technology, Huadian heavy Industry and Huaguang Ring Energy, which respectively cut into the market of hydrogen production equipment from electrolytic water by virtue of their technical advantages and order advantages, which have an impact on traditional enterprises. At present, the CR3 of China's electrolytic cell market has reached 80%. With the entry of various forces, the competition pattern may be reshaped in the future.
Risk Tips:The development of hydrogen energy is not as expected; the reduction of water electrolysis equipment is not as expected; the electricity price is higher than expected; the landing of the bidding project is not as expected; the business progress of the recommended company is not as expected.