Zhitong Financial APP learned that Zhejiang Merchants Securities released a research report saying that looking forward to March, credit data are expected to continue to be excellent in quantity and quality, mainly due to: matching financing driven by ① infrastructure investment is expected to continue to be released; consumption promotion policies around ② are effective, driving residents to continue to repair short-term loans, while the real estate market recovers, and residents' medium-and long-term loans are expected to improve.The banking sector has benefited from the trio of the liberalization of the epidemic, real estate insurance and economic recovery.At present, it is still in the early stage of economic repair, the bank trio logic continues to confirm, continue to be bullish on bank stocks, focusing on Ping an (000001.SZ) / Societe Generale (601166.SH) / Ningbo (002142.SZ) / China Merchants Bank (600036.SH) / Nanjing (601009.SH) / Jiangsu (600919.SH).
The main points of ▍ Zheshang Securities are as follows:
Data overview
Social finance increased by 3.16 trillion in February, an increase of 1.95 trillion over the same period last year; the balance grew by 9.9%, compared with the previous month + 0.5pc. In February, RMB credit increased by 1.81 trillion, an increase of 592.8 billion over the same period last year; the balance grew by 11.6%, compared with the previous month + 0.3pc.
The quantity exceeded the expectation.
Credit increased by 1.81 trillion in February, up 592.8 billion from a year earlier, with super-market expectations (wind unanimously expected to be 1.4 trillion). The year-on-year increase mainly came from short-term loans by residents and medium-and long-term loans by enterprises. Social finance increased by 3.16 trillion in February (wind is unanimously expected to be 2.1 trillion), an increase of 1.95 trillion over the same period last year, mainly from RMB loans, government bonds and unpasted tickets. In February 2022, the bills in the bank balance sheet were hedged, and the unpasted bills had a low base, so it still contributed a large year-on-year increase even though there was a small negative increase in the unpasted bills in February.
Structure improvement
The month-on-month repair of residents' short-term loans is a bright spot, and medium-and long-term loans in enterprises continue to grow more than the same period last year.
1. Corporate loans increased year-on-year, of which medium-and long-term loans increased by 1.1 trillion in February, an increase of 604.8 billion yuan over the same period last year, continuing the trend of substantial increase over the same period last year. Judging that infrastructure loans are still the main investment, small and medium-sized enterprises have resumed work after the Spring Festival in February, judging that the credit demand of physical enterprises has improved month-on-month.
2. Residents' short-term loans are repaired, while long-term loans are weak. ① residents added 121.8 billion yuan in short-term loans in February, an increase of 87.7 billion yuan over the previous month, the highest monthly increase since October 2022. Since 2023, commercial banks have generally increased the amount of consumer loans, and with the gradual repair of consumption, residents' short-term loans are expected to continue to improve.
② residents' medium-and long-term loans increased by 86.3 billion yuan in February, 136.8 billion yuan less than the previous month, mainly because newly issued mortgages are still weak, while mortgage prepayments increased.
On February 9, the central bank and the Bancassurance Regulatory Commission held a forum for some commercial banks, asking banks to speed up the processing of the backlog of applications, do a good job in prepayment services, and judge that the queue time for prepayments may be shortened, and the backlog of mortgage prepayments has been released, leading to an increase in mortgage prepayments.
The heat of the real estate market in many places has rebounded recently. in February, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities increased by 31% compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate improved significantly from the previous month. Considering the grace period of the down payment, the real estate recovery in February is expected to boost the improvement of new mortgage loans in March and April, and follow up to keep an eye on changes in real estate sales.
Risk hint
Macro-economic stall, bad substantial exposure.