智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研究报告称，展望3月，判断信贷数据有望继续量质双优，主要得益于：①基建投资拉动的配套融资，有望继续释放;②各地促消费政策落地显效，带动居民短贷继续修复，同时房地产市场回暖，居民中长贷有望改善。银行板块受益于疫情放开、地产化险、经济复苏三重奏。当下仍处于经济修复前期，银行三重奏逻辑仍在持续印证，继续坚定看好银行股，重点推荐平安(000001.SZ)/兴业(601166.SH)/宁波(002142.SZ)/招行(600036.SH)/南京(601009.SH)/江苏(600919.SH)。
▍浙商证券主要观点如下：
数据概览
2月社融新增3.16万亿，同比多增1.95万亿;余额增速9.9%，环比+0.5pc。2月人民币信贷新增1.81万亿，同比多增5928亿;余额增速11.6%，环比+0.3pc。
量超预期
2月信贷新增1.81万亿，同比多增5928亿，超市场预期(wind一致预期为1.4万亿)，同比多增主要来自居民短贷和企业中长贷。2月社融新增3.16万亿(wind一致预期为2.1万亿)，同比多增1.95万亿，同比多增主要来自人民币贷款、政府债券、未贴票。2022年2月银行表内冲票据，未贴票有低基数，因此在2月未贴票小幅负增的情况下，仍贡献了较大的同比多增幅度。
结构改善
居民短贷环比修复是亮点，企业中长贷延续同比多增态势。
1、企业贷款同比多增，其中企业中长贷2月新增1.1万亿，同比多增6048亿元，延续同比大幅多增态势。判断基建类贷款仍是主要投向，2月份中小企业春节后陆续复工，判断实体企业信贷需求环比改善。
2、居民短贷修复，长贷较弱。①2月居民短贷新增1218亿元，环比多增877亿元，为2022年10月以来单月新增量最高的。2023年以来，商业银行普遍加大了消费贷款投放，随着消费逐步修复，居民短贷有望继续改善。
②2月居民中长贷新增863亿元，环比少增1368亿元，判断主要是新发放按揭仍然较弱，而按揭提前还款量增加。
2月9日，央行、银保监会召开部分商业银行座谈会，要求银行加快处理积压申请，做好提前还款服务，判断可能是提前还款排队时间缩短，前期积压的按揭提前还款量释放，带动按揭提前还款量增加。
近期多地房地产市场热度回升，2月份30个大中城市商品房成交面积同比增31%，增速环比大幅改善。考虑到首付存在宽限期，2月份房地产回暖，有望在3、4月份拉动新发按揭贷款改善，后续需持续关注房地产销售变化情况。
风险提示
宏观经济失速，不良大幅暴露。
Zhitong Financial APP learned that Zhejiang Merchants Securities released a research report saying that looking forward to March, credit data are expected to continue to be excellent in quantity and quality, mainly due to: matching financing driven by ① infrastructure investment is expected to continue to be released; consumption promotion policies around ② are effective, driving residents to continue to repair short-term loans, while the real estate market recovers, and residents' medium-and long-term loans are expected to improve.The banking sector has benefited from the trio of the liberalization of the epidemic, real estate insurance and economic recovery.At present, it is still in the early stage of economic repair, the bank trio logic continues to confirm, continue to be bullish on bank stocks, focusing on Ping an (000001.SZ) / Societe Generale (601166.SH) / Ningbo (002142.SZ) / China Merchants Bank (600036.SH) / Nanjing (601009.SH) / Jiangsu (600919.SH).
The main points of ▍ Zheshang Securities are as follows:
Data overview
Social finance increased by 3.16 trillion in February, an increase of 1.95 trillion over the same period last year; the balance grew by 9.9%, compared with the previous month + 0.5pc. In February, RMB credit increased by 1.81 trillion, an increase of 592.8 billion over the same period last year; the balance grew by 11.6%, compared with the previous month + 0.3pc.
The quantity exceeded the expectation.
Credit increased by 1.81 trillion in February, up 592.8 billion from a year earlier, with super-market expectations (wind unanimously expected to be 1.4 trillion). The year-on-year increase mainly came from short-term loans by residents and medium-and long-term loans by enterprises. Social finance increased by 3.16 trillion in February (wind is unanimously expected to be 2.1 trillion), an increase of 1.95 trillion over the same period last year, mainly from RMB loans, government bonds and unpasted tickets. In February 2022, the bills in the bank balance sheet were hedged, and the unpasted bills had a low base, so it still contributed a large year-on-year increase even though there was a small negative increase in the unpasted bills in February.
Structure improvement
The month-on-month repair of residents' short-term loans is a bright spot, and medium-and long-term loans in enterprises continue to grow more than the same period last year.
1. Corporate loans increased year-on-year, of which medium-and long-term loans increased by 1.1 trillion in February, an increase of 604.8 billion yuan over the same period last year, continuing the trend of substantial increase over the same period last year. Judging that infrastructure loans are still the main investment, small and medium-sized enterprises have resumed work after the Spring Festival in February, judging that the credit demand of physical enterprises has improved month-on-month.
2. Residents' short-term loans are repaired, while long-term loans are weak. ① residents added 121.8 billion yuan in short-term loans in February, an increase of 87.7 billion yuan over the previous month, the highest monthly increase since October 2022. Since 2023, commercial banks have generally increased the amount of consumer loans, and with the gradual repair of consumption, residents' short-term loans are expected to continue to improve.
② residents' medium-and long-term loans increased by 86.3 billion yuan in February, 136.8 billion yuan less than the previous month, mainly because newly issued mortgages are still weak, while mortgage prepayments increased.
On February 9, the central bank and the Bancassurance Regulatory Commission held a forum for some commercial banks, asking banks to speed up the processing of the backlog of applications, do a good job in prepayment services, and judge that the queue time for prepayments may be shortened, and the backlog of mortgage prepayments has been released, leading to an increase in mortgage prepayments.
The heat of the real estate market in many places has rebounded recently. in February, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities increased by 31% compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate improved significantly from the previous month. Considering the grace period of the down payment, the real estate recovery in February is expected to boost the improvement of new mortgage loans in March and April, and follow up to keep an eye on changes in real estate sales.
Risk hint
Macro-economic stall, bad substantial exposure.
