Overview of events

According to the 2022 annual report, the company achieved revenue of 8.086 billion yuan in 2022, + 9.30% year-on-year; net profit of 387 million yuan, + 179.07%; and net profit of 376 million yuan, + 54453.55%. In terms of cash flow, the net cash flow generated by operating activities was 787 million yuan, compared with the same period last year-32.94%. In a single quarter, Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 will achieve revenue in 2022.

17.21, 20.93, 20.74, 2.97 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year

3.17% Universe 9.55% Plus 18.04% Candle 12.55%; net profit of 0.38% Universe 1.11 Universe 1.02 million RMB respectively, compared with the same period last year-

45.18% Universe 2.39% Universe 610.97% Universe 350.09%.

Analysis and judgment:

Revenue side: the white card production capacity continues to be put into operation, and the special paper growth rate is bright during the reporting period, the company actively plans to build a base in Donghai Island of Zhanjiang, and the project with an annual output of 300000 tons of high-grade coated white cardboard is successfully started and implemented. the company expects that the production capacity of high-grade coated white paper will reach 900000 tons in 2024, which will continue to contribute to the company's performance. At the same time, the company continued to optimize the product structure, the sales of thermal paper and high-grade food white cardboard paper increased rapidly compared with the same period last year, and the quality of low-quantitative thermal sublimation transfer paper products improved steadily. During the reporting period, the company's sales of carbon-free thermal and thermal sublimation paper / sticker / white cardboard paper were + 15.14%, 10.48%, 2.77% and 9.34%, respectively. In addition, the company has seized international opportunities and accelerated its entry into the international market, promoting the rapid growth of international business volume. The export volume has increased by more than 90% compared with the same period last year, accounting for about 15% of the company's total sales, and export revenue has made a significant contribution to the company's revenue.

Profit side: the early pulp price is high and the gross profit margin is under pressure. the company's 2022 gross profit margin is from-4.46pct to 14.22% year-on-year, and net profit margin is from + 0.5pct to 5.86%. On a quarterly basis, Q4's gross profit margin in 2022 was-12.22pct to 10.99% year-on-year. The net interest rate increased from + 2.03pct to 6.27% compared with the same period last year, while the month-on-month increase in 0.93pct. The year-on-year decline in the company's gross profit margin is mainly due to the high shock of pulp prices in 2022 and greater pressure on the cost side. In terms of expenses, the company expense rate in 2022 was 7.75%, compared with the same period last year-1.65pct. Among them, the sales expense rate is 0.96%, compared with the same period last year-0.21pct. The management expense rate is 3.08%, year-on-year-0.38pct.

The financial expense rate is-0.16%, year-on-year-0.33pct, mainly due to the increase in the company's operating cash flow, the decrease in loan amount and the increase in interest income during the reporting period. The R & D fee is 3.88%, year-on-year-0.73pct. The company actively gives full play to the synergy of management, procurement, sales and other aspects to enhance the depth and breadth of lean management, significantly improve the energy efficiency of operation and management, reduce costs and increase efficiency.

Other important financial indicators

In 2022, the accounts payable of the company was 820 million yuan, + 46.39% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in the price of raw materials, resulting in an increase in the amount of accounts payable in the same period. The project under construction of the company is 232 million yuan, which is + 235.41% compared with the same period last year. This is mainly due to the construction of the second phase of the Donghai Island project in Zhanjiang base and the increase in the company's project investment.

Cash dividends actively give back to the majority of investors

The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 2.50 yuan for every 10 shares, and the amount of cash dividend (including tax) reaches 461 million yuan, accounting for 119.13% of the net profit belonging to the common shareholders of the listed company in the consolidated statement. The positive return of a high proportion of cash dividends to shareholders shows that the company is full of confidence in the future.

Investment suggestion

We are optimistic about Guanhao high-tech, the company as a leading enterprise in the specialty paper industry, the product line mainly includes special paper, self-adhesive labels and special white cardboard. In the short term, downstream demand rebounds and costs fall, which is good for the company's performance to further improve. In the medium and long term, the company's specialty paper business and white card business will benefit from the company's own capacity expansion and increased share in the high-quality customer supply system. Considering that the decline in pulp price may lead to a decline in paper price in the future, but it also releases profit flexibility, we downgrade the company's revenue forecast and raise its EPS forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 23-24 will be reduced from 8605max 10.316 billion yuan to 8496max RMB 98.1 billion, and EPS will be raised from 0.26MB 0.31 yuan to 0.28mm 0.33 yuan. It is expected that the company will achieve revenue of 11.136 billion yuan and EPS of 0.4 yuan in 2025. Corresponding to the closing price of 4.35 yuan per share on March 10, 2023, PE is 15.66, 13.35, respectively, 10.95 times, maintaining the company's "buy" rating.

Risk hint

1) macroeconomic fluctuations lead to lower-than-expected downstream demand; 2) continued high fluctuations in raw material prices lead to a decline in corporate profitability. 3) the high-end packaging new materials project in the southern base of the group is still in the stage of environmental impact assessment, and even if it is put into production, it is difficult to accurately judge the progress of asset injection due to the major shareholders' commitment to avoid inter-industry competition.