Overall performance: 22Q4 revenue growth, profit performance is bright. 2022Q4, the company achieved operating income of 295.4 billion yuan, an increase of 7% over the same period last year, and the growth rate has slowed down from the previous quarter. Revenue growth is expected to be flat in the first half of 2023 and accelerate in the second half of the year. The company focused on its core business in this quarter, with outstanding profit performance. Non-GAAP net profit was 7.7 billion yuan, Non-GAAP net interest rate 2.6%, pct; company adjusted EBITDA 8.9 billion yuan, profit margin 3.0%, 1.5 pct higher than the same period last year. Starting from this quarter, JD.com stopped disclosing annual active users. According to the results, the company's core member users maintained a growth rate of more than 30% in the fourth quarter, which played an important role in promoting the platform ARPPU. It is worth mentioning that for the first time, the company paid a cash dividend of US $0.31 per common share (US $0.62 per common share). The equity registration date was April 6, 2023, Beijing time and New York time, with a total dividend of about $1 billion and a dividend yield of 1.5%.
Strategic adjustment: the company emphasizes the importance of low price, and invests 1 billion yuan in March to establish the mentality of low price every day. From the end of 2022, the founder of JD.com returned, re-emphasizing the importance of low prices, officially launched the 10 billion subsidy channel on March 4, 2023, and United merchants to provide consumers with very cost-effective products. We expect that tens of billions of subsidies will not only increase consumer activity, but also slightly increase the company's costs and sales expenses.
Investment advice: the company's revenue growth is under pressure, downgraded to "overweight" rating. We use the SOTP method to value the company. at present, the company implies that the adjusted net profit of the retail business in 2024 is about 8.3xPE, the company's revenue growth is under short-term pressure, emphasizing that low commodity prices may lead to an increase in the company's costs and sales expenses, and we expect the company to return to healthy growth after the transition. It is estimated that the GMV CAGR of the 2022-2025E company will be 6%, slightly faster than BABA and Vipshop Holdings Limited, giving the company retail business 10-11xPE. Other amalgamation businesses are valued according to the proportion of the market value held by the company, with a target price of HK $179-191. after the end of the epidemic, the growth rate of the company's retail business GMV was flat, down 43% and 44% from the last target price, and 21% from the current increase.
In the short term, the company's recovery was slow in the first half of 2023, emphasizing that low-cost mentality could put pressure on profits; in the long run, with the end of the pain period of adjustment, the company is expected to return to healthy and sustainable development. We estimate that the adjusted return net profit for 2023-2025 will be RMB 302379 million, respectively, and the adjusted range for 2023-2024 will be-9.7% Mather 11.6%. After the end of the epidemic, the company's retail GMV growth rate was flat, giving the company a target price of HK $179-191, down 43% from the last target price, and 13% from the current increase. Downgrade to "overweight" rating.
Risk hints: policy risks, market risks such as increased competition among new entrants, macroeconomic systemic risks, etc.