Brief comment on performance
On March 9, 2023, the company disclosed its 2204 and full-year results. GMV grew 5.6% in 22 years, with revenue of 1.0462 trillion yuan, up 9.95% from the same period last year, which was basically in line with Bloomberg's expectations. Non-GAAP 's homed net profit was 28.3 billion yuan, up 64.49% from the same period last year. Of this total, Q4 realized revenue of 295.4 billion yuan, an increase of 7.08% over the same period last year. NonmurGAAP's net profit was 7.7 billion yuan, an increase of 117.13% over the same period last year.
Business analysis
User performance: the scale of users has been stable in the past 22 years, DAU has doubled compared with the same period last year, PLUS members have reached 34 million, and the average consumption level of members has reached 8 times that of ordinary users.
Income structure: the product income in 22 years was 865.1 billion yuan, 6.06% of the same period last year, accounting for 82.68% of the income, including 4.74% growth rate of household appliances and 8.06% growth rate of daily department stores. The revenue from services was 181.2 billion yuan, 33.28% from the same period last year, accounting for 17.32% of the revenue, of which platform and advertising services grew by 13.66%, and logistics and other services grew by 55.45%.
10 billion subsidy: since its launch on March 6, it is expected to invest 1 billion yuan in the first month, with resources jointly invested by JD.com and merchants, aimed at strengthening the price competitiveness of the platform, which is expected to bring user increment and recall stock, and boost daily sales. The normalization of tens of billions of subsidies will help to reduce the pressure during the platform boom.
Open ecology: as of 2204, the number of JD.com pop merchants has increased by more than 20% for eight consecutive quarters compared with the same period last year. At the beginning of 23 years, the company issued the "Spring Dawn Plan" to lower the threshold for merchants to settle in and attract more businessmen to settle in.
Retail in the same city: in 22 years, JD.com reached 78.6 million active consumers, with a GMV of 63.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year comparison of 46.9%. JD.com 's hourly purchase of GMV has increased by more than 80% compared with the same period last year, and the entrance GMV of channels in the same city has exceeded 3 times. The number of active stores on the platform exceeds 220000, more than 50% of the same period last year, and the supply side continues to be rich.
Operating efficiency: focusing on sustainable growth, the company continues to improve efficiency, shutting down businesses that are unable to run out of mode in the short term, can not collaborate with JD.com 's core business, and are unable to achieve economies of scale. The performance of all expenses has been optimized in the past 22 years. The performance expense rate is 6.02% (the previous value is 6.21%), the sales expense rate is 3.61% (the previous value is 4.07%), the R & D expense rate is 1.61% (the previous value is 1.72%), and the management expense rate is 1.06% (the previous value is 1.22%).
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
The company's "quality goods + quality service" consolidates a large number of consumers with strong spending power. After the platform attaches importance to price power, gross profit margin is expected to decrease. It is estimated that the income of 2023-2025E is 1.1518 trillion yuan, 1.285 trillion yuan and 1.4571 trillion yuan respectively, and the net profit of Non-GAAP is 31.8 billion yuan, 38.4 billion yuan and 44.8 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding PE is 13.82x, 11.44x, 9.81x, given a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The recovery of consumption is not as expected, the growth of users is not as expected, the competition in the industry is intensified, and the low conversion rate of subsidies erodes profits.