Main points of investment
The performance continues to grow at a high rate, with an estimated growth rate of more than 40% in 2023: the 2022 annual report realized an income of 2.555 billion yuan (+ 19%) and deducted a non-return net profit of 369 million yuan (+ 453%), of which the impairment of COVID-19 's vaccine business led to an one-time reduction of 327 million yuan in net profit and an actual operating net profit of nearly 700 million yuan. The new active element realized sales of 6.16 million units and income of 2.251 billion yuan (+ 34%), accounting for 88% of the income. Imdo realized an income of 165 million yuan (- 45%) due to the impact of collection. In 2023, the business plan aims to achieve 3.5 billion yuan in revenue, an increase of 37% over the same period last year, mainly relying on the continuous release of new activity. it is estimated that the sales growth target will exceed 40% in 2023.
The new activin has a definite curative effect and is included in the guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of heart failure and the national medical insurance catalogue. The main mechanism of neo-activin is to dilate the blood vessels so as to reduce the anterior and posterior burden of the heart, dilate the afferent arterioles of the glomerulus, inhibit the reabsorption of sodium in the proximal convoluted tubule, increase the glomerular filtration rate, enhance the excretion of sodium, and produce obvious diuretic effect. Xinhuoxin can quickly improve the symptoms and signs of heart failure and improve the quality of life of patients with heart failure, which is highly recognized in clinic.
There are more than 12 million patients with heart failure, with a prevalence rate of about 1.1%. According to health insurance statistics for 5000 workers aged 25 and over in 6 provinces in 2017, the prevalence rate of heart failure in China is about 1.1%, and it is estimated that the number of patients with heart failure exceeds 12 million. The prevalence of heart failure increases with age. The prevalence rate of people aged 65-79 / ≥ is 0.57%, 3.86% and 7.55% respectively. The accelerated aging process in China will continue to expand the number of patients with heart failure. A total of 518400 patients with heart failure were found in a sample of 5000 million in 2017, of which 132300 were hospitalized, and the ratio of hospitalization 2 / ≥ 3 times was 40.2% 19.3% 40.5% respectively, with an average of about 2 hospitalizations per person per year. It is enlarged to 1200 million patients with heart failure nationwide, and the number of hospitalizations is expected to exceed 6 million each year. According to the calculation of the average use of 4 Xinhuo per person, and according to the permeability of 2 picks and 3, the future peak sales are expected to reach 1600 million.
Investment suggestion: considering that the company's business target for 2023 exceeds our previous expectations, the company's profit forecast is revised upwards. It is estimated that the company's 2023-2025 net return profit will be RMB 9.91 million and the growth rate will be 168%, 35% and 30%, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be as much as 14-10-8. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: product sales are not as expected risk, product price reduction risk.