Overview of events
March 9, the company released February 2023 production and sales KuaiBao: monthly wholesale sales of 301000 vehicles, year-on-year-6.4%, month-on-month + 26.6%. The company wholesale 539000 vehicles from January to February,-30.6% compared with the same period last year.
SAIC-Volkswagen wholesale 73000 vehicles in February,-19.1% year-on-year, + 1.8% month-on-month. From January to February, a total of 145000 vehicles were wholesale,-34.3% of the same period last year.
SAIC GM wholesale 68000 vehicles in February,-10.3% year-on-year, + 23.9% month-on-month. A total of 123000 vehicles were wholesale from January to February, which was-33.8% compared with the same period last year.
SAIC wholesale 58000 passenger cars in February,-9.2% year-on-year and + 5.0% month-on-month. A total of 114000 vehicles were wholesale from January to February,-13.5% compared with the same period last year.
SAIC GM Wuling wholesale 72000 vehicles in February, + 9.1% year-on-year, + 140.0% month-on-month.
From January to February, a total of 102000 vehicles were wholesale, which was-42.1% of the same period last year.
Analysis and judgment:
February demand picks up and the transformation of new energy accelerates
February month-on-month is better than the industry, new products drive the transformation of new energy. According to the statistics of the Federation of passengers, 1.598 million passenger cars were wholesale in February, + 9.0% year-on-year, + 10.0% month-on-month, and the industry recovered slightly. The company's wholesale sales of 301000 vehicles, year-on-year-6.4%, month-on-month + 26.6%, post-epidemic recovery coupled with Tong Wuling sales-driven, demand slowly rebounded. Looking to the future, with Buick E5, Wuling colorful fruit listed one after another, we expect the company's production and marketing to be steadily upward and new energy to accelerate the transformation.
1) SAIC Volkswagen: wholesale 68000 vehicles in February,-10.3% year-on-year, + 23.9% month-on-month.
The new Tuyue will be on the market soon, the central control screen will be changed from embedded to suspended type, the engine displacement will be increased to 1.5T, the maximum motor power will be 160Ps, and the power performance will be fully upgraded, which is expected to attract some demand.
2) SAIC GM: wholesale 68000 vehicles in February,-10.3% year-on-year, + 23.9% month-on-month.
At the end of last month, Buick official account disclosed Electra E5 part of the information, the new car will be equipped with a new generation of Buick VCS intelligent cockpit, with 12.6inch full-color wide HUD look-up display + 30-inch 6K screen + Qualcomm Inc 8155 chip, focusing on improving user intelligent experience, is expected to stimulate demand and boost
3) Auto passenger cars: SAIC wholesale 58000 passenger cars in February,-9.2% year-on-year, + 5.0% month-on-month. Roewe RX9 and Roewe iMAX8 went on the market at the beginning of this month, with a price of RMB 17.58-24.38,18.58-255800, and the comprehensive fuel consumption of WLTC is 8.4 and 8.7L/100km, respectively. We estimate that exports are expected to maintain rapid growth. 4) SAIC GM Wuling: 72000 vehicles wholesale in February, year-on-year + 9.1%, month-on-month + 140.0%, demand recovers quickly. On March 2, Wuling Colored Fruit held its debut and tasting meeting in Shanghai. The overall design of the model adopts retro mobile lines, wheelbase 2560mm, front-drive layout to liberate the internal space and positioning of the youth market.
The new car has been booked and is expected to contribute to the increase in sales.
Zhiji + Feifan New Energy High-end acceleration
Zhiji LS7 made a stunning debut, leading the high-end upgrade. Zhiji LS7 released last month, the guidance price is 30.98-459800 yuan, it has both performance and luxury experience: to achieve a 100km acceleration of 4.5s, in-car linkage electric slides, zero-gravity floating seats and other technologies, effectively improve cockpit comfort and space utilization. So far, the cumulative order of LS7 has exceeded 15000, and the delivery orders scheduled for the first week of April have also been sold out. We judge that the sales situation will remain good and will continue to contribute to the company's increment.
The price of Feifan R7 is down, and Feifan F7 is about to appear on the market. In early February, Feifan R7 released a new year refurbished price, car and electricity separation model price adjustment to 195900, the purchase threshold further down, stimulating demand upward. Feifan F7 will be launched later this month, equipped with a full-sensory Bach cockpit to promote the brand's high-end upgrading, debut cash orders of more than 12000 in the first month, which is expected to further boost overall demand.
Sustained hot sales of new energy overseas are about to speed up.
Exports are growing rapidly, with the European market leading the way. In February, the company's overseas sales reached 84000, + 49.3% compared with the same period last year, and + 9.3% compared with the previous month, maintaining a good situation. In the European market, the monthly sales of the independent brand MG have doubled compared with the same period last year, ranking at the forefront of new car sales in the UK, France and other European countries, and accelerating the landing in Australia, Mexico and other places. We expect that the company's new energy has obvious advantages over mainstream European competitors in terms of product strength, and sea sales are expected to increase steadily.
New energy is up month-on-month and is expected to recover quickly. In February, the company sold 45000 new energy vehicles,-1.4% year-on-year and + 38.5% month-on-month. As the industry demand picks up, the overdraft effect of new energy weakens. Looking forward to the future, the company's new car will be on the market quickly, and under the continuous drive of product power, we judge that the month-on-month ratio in March is expected to recover quickly.
Investment suggestion
The company is facing the force majeure of the lack of core in the industry, actively deepening internal work, comprehensively optimizing in the two dimensions of organizational force and product force, and accelerating the transformation from the perspective of user operation and experience strategy. The company's underlying technology is solid, the platform ability is excellent, and the independent growth is becoming more and more clear.
With the gradual improvement of chip supply, the company is expected to usher in a new growth cycle of independent + joint venture two-wheel drive, the return of the passenger car leader king. To keep the company's profit forecast unchanged, it is estimated that the revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 7973 million yuan and 9050 million yuan respectively, and the net profit will be 17.5 billion yuan 231 billion yuan. The corresponding EPS is 1.50 shock 1.98 shock 2.55 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 14.93 yuan per share on March 9, 2023, PE is 10-8-6 times, respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The impact of lack of core continues; the downside risk of the car market; the downside risk of the joint venture brand; the landing of new electric smart models is not as expected; overseas expansion is not as expected.