Zhitong Financial APP learned that Soochow Securities issued a research report saying that HJT will fully benefit and boost the same price of NP wafers brought about by wafer thinning. The price of the newly added 110 micron N-type silicon wafer in Central is lower than that of the P-type 150 μ m silicon wafer. The bank believes that the wafer slicing can save silicon material and reduce the production cost of the silicon wafer, but it reflects that there is still room for further decline in the price end. Take 210 as an example, the thickness of N-type 110 micron silicon wafer is 26.7% lower than that of P-type 150 μ m silicon wafer, and the price is reduced by 2.2%. The price drop is lower than that of silicon material savings. In the future, with the full competition of N-type silicon wafers, it is expected to further reduce the price of N-type silicon wafers and promote the industrialization process of HJT.

Investment advice:Battery chip equipment recommended for shares, it is recommended to pay attention to Jiejia Weichuang (300724.SZ), Jinchen shares (603396.SH); silicon wafer equipment recommended Jingsheng Electronics (300316.SZ), High Test shares (688556.SH); components and equipment recommended 688516.SH; Hot Field recommended Jinbo shares (688598.SH).

Events:On March 6, 2023, TCL Central announced the latest wafer price. The new N-type 110 μ m silicon wafer is quoted for 210x182, which is lower than the price of P-type 150 μ m silicon wafer.

The main points of Soochow Securities are as follows:

Thin slice is a unique cost reduction item of HJT, which helps & fully benefit from the same price of NP wafers.

1) HJT uses low-temperature process and plate coating equipment, combined with chain gettering and other processes currently wafer thickness is significantly thinner than PERC and TOPCon and has greater potential for wafer thinning: PERC wafer theoretical limit 150um, TOPCon theoretical limit thickness 130um, HJT mass production wafer thickness gradually switch 120um, theoretical limit 80um, the launch of 110um N-type wafer in China Central means that the industrialization process of thinner wafer is accelerated.

2) HJT will fully benefit and boost the same price of NP wafers brought about by wafer slicing. The price of the newly added 110 micron N-type silicon wafer in Central is lower than that of the P-type 150 μ m silicon wafer. The bank believes that the wafer slicing can save silicon material and reduce the production cost of the silicon wafer, but it reflects that there is still room for further decline in the price end. Take 210 as an example, the thickness of N-type 110 micron silicon wafer is 26.7% lower than that of P-type 150 μ m silicon wafer, and the price is reduced by 2.2%. The price drop is lower than that of silicon material savings. In the future, with the full competition of N-type silicon wafers, it is expected to further reduce the price of N-type silicon wafers and promote the industrialization process of HJT.

The advantage of HJT silicon wafer end is obvious, and the utilization rate of silicon rod is higher.

In addition to the advantage of silicon wafer slicing, under the technology of half-rod and half-slice cutting, head and tail material utilization and edge skin utilization, the silicon rod utilization of HJT is 10% higher than that of TOPCon, and the yield is 4% higher. (1) half-rod and half-chip cutting can increase the good rate by 4%; (2) the utilization of head and tail materials can increase the utilization rate of silicon rod by 6%; (3) the problem of TOPCon black chip magnifies the advantage of silicon rod utilization of HJT by about 3%; (4) the efficiency loss of edge skin in TOPCon is at least 0.15-0.2%, while that of HJT is only 0.05%.

The cost of HJT single W silicon wafer has greater downward potential.

(1) HJT: if the silicon material is 100yuan / KG and the thickness of HJT silicon wafer is 80 microns, the cost of HJT silicon wafer is about 0.32yuan / W, (2) TOPCon: if the silicon material is 100yuan / KG and the thickness of TOPCon silicon wafer is 130um, the cost of TOPCon silicon wafer is about 0.39yuan / W (3) PERC: if the silicon material is reduced to 100yuan / KG and the thickness of PERC silicon wafer is 150um, the cost of silicon wafer is about 0.31yuan / W, and the cost of PERC silicon wafer calculated by this bank is about 0.39yuan / W.

The slicing of HJT thin silicon wafers is more difficult, and the bank is optimistic about the improvement of the permeability of the OEM mode.

(1) at present, the scale of HJT is too small, the slicing mode is various, and ① is sliced independently: Huasheng actively promotes the slicing of HJT silicon wafer by buying high test and Yujing slicer and Shuangliang single crystal square ingot from the main slicing half; King Kong buys the whole Central N-type chip from the main slicing half to establish its own brand. ② joint venture slice: Huasheng and Huamin shares, Yujing and other joint ventures to set up a joint venture to build 10GWHJT wafer project in Xuancheng, Anhui. (2) in the future, HJT silicon wafers are getting thinner and thinner, and the requirements for slicing are higher, while the third-party slicing foundry has significant advantages. The bank believes that the penetration of slicing foundry will gradually increase, and the best mode is to give priority to slicing, and enterprises retain part of their own slicing capacity to maintain the sensitivity of technology research and development.

Risk Tips:The process of HJT industrialization is not as expected.