Summary of the event: on March 7, the company released its 2022 results KuaiBao: in 2022, the company achieved revenue of 5.404 billion yuan, year-on-year + 16.18%, return-to-mother net profit of 894 million yuan, year-on-year-17.54%, deducted non-return net profit of 787 million yuan, year-on-year + 1.64%. From a quarterly point of view, 2022Q4, the company achieved revenue of 1.48 billion yuan, year-on-year + 36.59%, month-on-month + 18.04%; return-to-mother net profit 428 million yuan, year-on-year + 102.50%, month-on-month + 239.43%; deduction of non-return net profit of 153 million yuan, + 85.85% year-on-year, month-on-month-29.13%.
Comments: non-recurrent profit and loss help 22Q4 performance rebounded significantly ① volume: actively adjust the production and marketing structure, 22 years of product volume increase. Under the pressure of repeated epidemic situation and insufficient operating rate of electric furnace steel in the past 22 years, the company flexibly adjusts the production and marketing structure and increases the efficiency of the main and by-products. 22Q4 downstream electric furnace steel capacity utilization rate of 42.36%, month-on-month increase of 8.88pct, graphite electrode shipments of 22Q4 company is expected to pick up.
② price: the price pressure of raw materials has been greatly alleviated. The prosperity of 22Q4 graphite electrode industry has declined, and the market price of 22Q4 graphite electrode is-4.85%. The price pressure of raw materials has been greatly alleviated, including 22Q4 needle coke market price-10.96% and petroleum coke market price-9.47%. In terms of iron ore, the market price of 22Q4 iron concentrate powder is-1.87%.
③ non-recurring profit and loss helped Q4 performance to rebound significantly. 22Q4 reduced its holdings of Jilin Chemical Fiber 54.5886 million shares. According to the Jilin Chemical Fiber announcement, Fangda carbon subsidiary Shanghai Fangda Investment Management Co., Ltd. twice reduced its holdings of 54.5886 million Jilin Chemical Fiber shares in 22Q4, and the reduced shares are expected to contribute to investment income.
Core focus in the future: carbon projects gradually release production capacity
The demand of graphite electrode industry in ① has improved in 23 years. The recovery of the iron and steel industry is expected to be strong in 23 years, the steel price has risen, the supply of superimposed scrap has obviously alleviated compared with 22 years, the operating rate of electric furnace steel has rebounded, and the demand of graphite electrode industry is expected to improve.
② ultra-high power graphite electrode project has been put into production, the leading position is more stable. With the relocation of 50, 000 tons of carbon in Hefei, the 50, 000-ton new project in Meishan Fangda has been gradually put into production, and its leading position has become more stable. In terms of product structure, the new graphite electrode project is mainly ultra-high power products, and the proportion of the company's high-end graphite electrode products will be further enhanced in the future.
③ and other static pressure graphite gradually increase, performance contribution is expected to rise steadily. Chengdu carbon material, a subsidiary, is a professional R & D and production enterprise with good quality, large specification and high output of isostatic pressed graphite products in China. The company's total planned production capacity of isostatic pressed graphite is 30,000 tons, and its performance contribution is expected to increase steadily with the gradual release of production capacity in the later stage.
④ plans to release GDR, and the business section may be richer. The company plans to issue GDR on the Swiss Stock Exchange (not exceeding 15% of the total common share capital of the company before the issue). In December 2022, the company received conditional approval for listing on the Swiss Stock Exchange to raise funds for the company to expand its main business and supplement the company's operating capital. The company's business sector is expected to be richer.
Investment suggestion: the company actively adjusts the product structure, a number of projects under construction gradually release production capacity, performance release can be expected. We estimate that the company's 2022-2024 net profit will be 8.94 billion yuan in turn, corresponding to the current price, and the PE in 2022-2024 will be times that of 28-20-14, maintaining the company's "recommended" rating.
Risk hint: the development of electric furnace steelmaking is not as expected; the progress of the project is not as expected; the price of raw materials fluctuates greatly.