Event: the company released its 2022 results, KuaiBao, with an estimated operating income of 381 million yuan (+ 32.15%), a net profit of 95.38 million yuan (+ 6.73%), and a non-return net profit of 88.73 million yuan (+ 3.41%).
Rapid income growth, falling gross profit margins and increased expense rates are a drag on profit growth, and profit margins are expected to improve gradually in 2023. The rapid growth of the company's revenue in 2022 is mainly due to the company's active promotion of research and development, the improvement of product variety and richness to meet market demand, and the construction of outer warehouses to improve delivery efficiency, speed up the completion of orders, and improve response speed. Corporate profit growth is slower than revenue growth in 2022, mainly due to: (1) the increase in commodity prices and the adjustment of preferential policies for dealers affect the company's gross profit margin; (2) the increase in sales expense rate, the company's sales expense rate was 8.83% from January to September in 2022, an increase of 2.09 percentage points compared with the same period in 2021, mainly due to the increase in the number of marketers and the increase in marketing expenses. (3) the company expanded its R & D personnel, and the R & D expense rate increased. From January to September 2022, the company's R & D expenditure rate was 10.10%, an increase of 2.54% compared with the same period in 2021; (4) the financial expense rate increased, mainly due to the increase in interest on convertible bonds. We believe that with the volume growth of the company's revenue in 2023, the scale effect will be gradually reflected, and the negative impact of the increase in fees on the company's profits will gradually decrease; in addition, with the completion of incentives for dealers, as well as the increase in the share of revenue from products with higher gross margins such as proteins and antibodies, it is expected that the company's gross profit margin will pick up steadily.
The amount of inventory continues to increase, and there is sufficient momentum for performance growth. The amount of the company's ending inventory in 2022 increased by 106% compared with the same period last year. The increase in the amount of inventory shows that the company's spot quantity and product variety continue to be rich, which can better meet the needs of customers and ensure the continuous growth of sales revenue in the future.
Earnings forecasts and valuations. We estimate that the company's operating income from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.80,5.05 and 665 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.2%, 32.9% and 31.6%, respectively. The net profit of home ownership was 0.95,1.29 and 180 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.2%, 35.4% and 39.8% respectively. Based on the closing price on March 6, the corresponding PE was 65.2,48.1 and 34.4 times respectively, giving a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk tips: increased competition in the scientific research reagent industry, product profit margins decline; new product sales are not as expected; inventory impairment.