Zhitong Financial APP learned that Soochow Securities released a research report saying that Green hydrogen is a perfect combination of deep decarbonization of renewable energy and industrial decarbonization, and the 10-year high-speed growth industry cycle has begun. The short-term space downstream of green hydrogen comes from the substitution of gray hydrogen in the chemical industry, and the long-term incremental space comes from transportation, natural gas hydrogenation, hydrogen for steelmaking, and carbon reduction in industry and transportation, which is an important carrier of the fourth global energy revolution. The global pure hydrogen production in 21 years is about 70 million tons, of which green hydrogen accounts for less than 0.1%. The global landscape hydrogen integration project began intensive construction in 23-24. The bank expects the proportion of green hydrogen to reach 2% in 25 years, and 30% in 2030, with an output of more than 30 million tons.
Investment advice:The 10-year hydrogen energy growth industry cycle has been clear, equipment first, focusing on the electrolytic cell equipment made by green hydrogen, recommended Longji Green Energy (601012.SH), Sunshine Power supply (300274.SZ), etc., it is recommended to pay attention to Huadian heavy Industry (601226.SH), Sunshine Technology (300423.SZ), Kewell (688551.SH), 600277.SH and so on.
The main points of Soochow Securities are as follows:
Carbon Neutralization Vision and Yangmou, New Energy Jigsaw and closed Loop, 23-25 Global Green hydrogen Project
Collection and construction: the domestic scenic base encourages local consumption, but forces the supporting construction of green hydrogen projects, of which Inner Mongolia takes the lead in layout. According to the statistics of the bank, the green hydrogen projects are currently planned near 15GW, of which the bid opening projects from January to February in 23 years reach 730MW, and it is estimated that the bid opening projects for the whole year will exceed 2GW (corresponding to 100000 tons), doubling compared with the same period last year. The European Union has made it clear in 22 years that the EU has a target of producing 10 million tons of green hydrogen and importing 10 million tons of green hydrogen by 2030. In order to meet this goal, European energy companies have begun to lay out hydrogen energy projects on a large scale. At present, the total hydrogen production of projects in the mainland and overseas exceeds 4.7 million tons, which are planned to be put into production before 2030. At present, 65000 tons of projects have started construction, while EU countries have opened a special undersea tunnel H2Med, routes to transport green hydrogen. The distribution of hydrogen energy in the United States is obviously accelerated after 2021, and a clear path has been worked out. Green hydrogen demand is planned to reach 1000, 2000 and 50 million tons / year, respectively, by 2030 pezz. The IRA Act continues for 10 years to give large subsidies to green hydrogen production, up to 3 US dollars / kg, greatly improving the economy of green hydrogen. At present, the US Green hydrogen planning project is concentrated in California and Texas. The total planned output of the two major projects already under construction is 100000 tons.
The path of decline in the cost of green hydrogen is clear, and the zero-carbon subscription forecast can basically achieve parity in 25-27 years:
The improvement of performance-to-price ratio of green hydrogen comes from the lower cost of electricity and the stricter assessment of carbon emissions. The cost of hydrogen production from coal is 9-10 yuan / kg, and the cost of hydrogen production from natural gas is 15 yuan / kg. At present, under the condition of electricity price of 0.3 yuan / kwh, the average cost of green hydrogen is 25 yuan / kg. Ideally, according to the standard square of electricity consumption of 4 kwh/, the electricity price is 0.15 yuan / kwh, and the corresponding cost is 15 yuan / kg. If green hydrogen is coupled with wind power and wind power, the annual utilization hours are increased to more than 4000 hours, and the cost is expected to further reduce to less than 11 yuan / kg, which can basically achieve parity with coal to produce hydrogen. At the same time, green hydrogen achieves zero emission. If the carbon price is increased from 50 yuan / ton to 200 yuan / ton, the parity price of ammonia to methanol can be achieved when the cost of green hydrogen is 16-18 yuan / kg.
The production capacity of the hydrogen production industry is just around the corner, and the core equipment and components are flexible:
The technology of hydrogen production by hydrolyzation takes alkaline as the mainstream, which is more suitable for large-scale centralized production. PEM technology will be used as a supplement in small-scale distributed fields. At present, the price of EPC in the whole line of 1000 standard square meter / h alkaline electrolytic cell is 10 million, and the equipment is 9 million, of which the electrolytic cell accounts for more than 50%. According to the global green hydrogen accounted for nearly 30% in 2030, corresponding to 1000 standard electrolytic cell demand of more than 25000, corresponding to the market space of 150 billion +. The core indexes of the electrolytic cell are single-line production capacity, power consumption, etc., which are determined by the electrode (nickel wire mesh spraying), diaphragm, flow field design and so on. There is little difference in each index, but the actual long-term operation stability varies greatly. At present, there are nearly 100 new electrolytic cell manufacturers. The bank is more optimistic about the first echelon 718, competitive stand and mainland. And the new entrants with rapid technological progress and rich resources, such as Longji Green Energy, Sunshine Power supply, Huadian heavy Industry, Yili Jieneng, Zenghui Technology and so on. At the same time, the cost of PPS diaphragm in the electrolytic cell accounts for 15-20%, which is expected to be replaced by domestic products.
Risk Tips:Policy support fell short of expectations and prices fell faster than expected.