The 2022 performance forecast is +14% year on year. The epidemic and production capacity constraints have been lifted, and growth is about to accelerate.
The company announced its 2022 performance report. It is expected to achieve revenue of 1,227 billion yuan (+6.72% year-on-year) and net profit of Guimo of 123 million yuan (+13.82% year-on-year) in 2022. The epidemic has repeatedly affected raw material procurement and back-end sales, and capacity bottlenecks (capacity utilization has continued to exceed 100% in recent years), which is the core factor limiting the company's performance growth in 2022. However, with the gradual increase in the company's fund-raising capacity and the liberalization of the epidemic, the company's subsequent orders and performance can be expected to accelerate.
The semiconductor production capacity in mainland China and Southeast Asia is expanding at an accelerated pace. The supply of the company's products is in short supply, and it is expected that IPO production capacity will double. Under factors such as the market, national strategy, autonomy and control, wafer production capacity in mainland China will maintain a rapid expansion trend. The existing production capacity and planned production capacity are 1,625 and 4,545 million pieces/month (about 8 inches), respectively, and the expansion rate of semiconductors in Southeast Asia is also accelerating due to friction between China and the US. The company's production capacity is currently overloaded, and the utilization rate has exceeded 100% for several years in a row. According to the fund-raising plan, it is expected that the production capacity of the company's core products will be close to doubling, and performance flexibility can be expected.
“Customer resources+product advantage+global vision” creates a triple advantage. Through more than 20 years of deep cultivation in the cleaning field, the company has three core advantages: (1) customer resources, international cooperation with SMIC since 2006, the company participated in the latest 14nm and 28nm production line cleaning support, was responsible for Shanghai Microelectronics's first 28nm production line, and had in-depth cooperation with Intel, ST Microelectronics and some well-known overseas companies; (2) product advantages, the company's core product fan filter units and filters are at the leading level at home and abroad; (3) global vision, general manager, etc. The digital core management is of foreign nationality such as Malaysia and Japan. The focus will be on Southeast Asia's outstanding semiconductor market advantages and deep cultivation of biopharmaceuticals and atmospheric emissions management.
Profit forecasts and investment suggestions: Demand for semiconductors is increasing, and the company's performance can be expected. We expect the company's net profit to be 131, 2.07, and 310 million yuan from 2022 to 2024. Corresponding to the latest PE is 42, 27 and 18 times. Referring to comparable companies and growth rates, we will give a PE valuation of 30 times in 2023, corresponding to a reasonable value of 46.10 yuan/share, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: orders fall short of expectations; overseas expansion falls short of expectations; fund-raising projects fall short of expectations.