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美股收盘 | 三大指数冲高回落，纳指止步两连涨；科技股、中概股普跌，特斯拉、拼多多跌约2%

美债收益率回落令美股高开，道指最高涨超180点，纳指涨超1%。午盘后美债收益率转涨，投资者焦虑等待鲍威尔国会听证和美国非农就业数据，午盘后美股涨幅迅速收窄，标普500指数和道指仅勉强收涨，纳指止步两日连涨。但标普连涨三日，道指连涨四日，均创逾两周新高。社交媒体Snap一度涨超14%，破产边缘的币圈银行Silvergate大幅波动至新低。

有欧央行鹰派票委支持未来四次会议各加息50个基点，两年期德债收益率创十四年半最高。美油三周来首次升穿80美元，美国天然气盘中跌16%逾一个月最大跌幅，欧气盘中跌8%。美元跌但离七周高位不远，离岸人民币跌560点至一周低位。现货黄金跌穿1850美元失守两周半高位，伦敦工业金属普跌。

市场等待周二的JOLTS职位空缺、周五的2月非农就业等重磅美国经济数据，以及美联储主席鲍威尔于美东时间周二和周三出席国会半年度听证的发言，以寻找美国利率政策路径的线索。

继1月非农就业意外大幅增长51.7万个岗位后，经济学家预计2月再增加22.5万个。

欧美央行3月政策决议公布在即，分析师称近期最大“黑天鹅”事件将是3月美联储加息50个基点，市场认为几率高于30%，加息25个基点的几率降至不足70%。有欧洲央行鹰派票委支持3月至7月四次会议各加息50个基点，核心通胀高企令市场押注欧央行的峰值利率高于4%。

市场押注3月美联储加息50个基点的几率高于30%，加息25个基点的几率降至不足70%

最新数据显示，由于支出向服务业转移，美国工厂与耐用品订单在1月均下滑，耐用品订单终值下降4.5%持平预期与前值，工厂订单环比降1.6%略好于预期。欧元区1月零售销售环比增0.3%，同比跌2.3%，均好于前值但弱于预期，欧元区3月Sentix投资者信心指数继续恶化至负11。

道指连涨四日，标普大盘和纳指100连涨三日，纳指转跌，特斯拉跌2%下逼四周低位

3月6日周一，由于美债收益率回落，美股集体小幅高开，延续上周累涨态势。信息技术和通信服务板块盘初以1.4%的涨幅领涨，原材料板块跌超1%，能源股追随油价下跌。

道指最高涨超180点或涨0.5%，标普500指数最高涨0.8%，纳指最高涨1.2%，纳指100最高涨1.4%。午盘后美股涨幅迅速收窄，罗素小盘股全天走低并维持逾1%的跌幅。

收盘时，标普500、道指和纳指100均勉强收涨，标普和纳指100连涨三日，道指连涨四日，均创2月17日以来的逾两周高位。纳指止步两日连涨，罗素小盘股止步五日连涨，无缘两周新高：

标普500指数收涨2.78点，涨幅0.07%，报4048.42点。道指收涨40.47点，涨幅0.12%，报33431.44点，四个交易日累涨约2.37%。纳指收跌13.27点，跌幅0.11%，报11675.74点。纳斯达克100指数收涨0.10%，罗素2000小盘股指数收跌1.5%。

除特斯拉外，明星科技股盘初齐涨超2%，午盘后涨幅显著收窄甚至转跌。“元宇宙”Meta涨2.4%后转跌，无缘四周高位。亚马逊和奈飞涨2.5%后转跌1%，从一周高位回落。苹果涨3.5%后收涨近2%，至2月15日来的近三周高位。微软涨2%后收涨0.6%，谷歌A涨2.5%后收涨1.6%，均创两周最高。特斯拉跌2%，重新逼近四周低位。

芯片股同样在午盘后回落。费城半导体指数涨超1%后转跌超1%，止步两日连涨，但离两周高位不远。英特尔跌1.6%，AMD和台积电美股涨超2%后转跌，无缘两周高位，英伟达涨1.5%后转跌1.4%，从去年4月7日来新高回落。美光科技几乎抹去逾3%的涨幅。

热门中概追随纳指收跌。中概ETF KWEB跌超2%，CQQQ和纳斯达克金龙中国指数（HXC）跌1.7%。纳斯达克100四只成份股中，京东涨1%，拼多多跌2%，百度跌2.6%，网易涨0.7%。其他个股中，阿里巴巴涨近2%后转跌，腾讯ADR跌2%，B站和微博跌超4%，好未来跌超5%。蔚来汽车跌2.7%，小鹏汽车跌2.5%，理想汽车跌0.4%。

消息面上，高盛六年来首次建议增持苹果，称庞大的用户基础将利好服务业务，目标价199美元，暗示未来12个月股价再涨30%。为了刺激需求，特斯拉旗下高端电动汽车Model S和Model X在美售价最多降1万美元，为该公司年内第二次降价。

其他变动较大的个股包括：

美国司法部可能周二裁定廉价航司捷蓝航空与精神航空的合并违反反垄断规定，精神航空涨3%后火速转跌近9%，至十个月新低。提出收购要约的捷蓝航空最高涨超4%至两周新高。
社交媒体Snap一度涨超14%，至2月7日以来的四周新高，并创去年11月以来的最大单日涨幅。
币圈银行Silvergate Capital跌超11%后转涨超10%，最终收跌超6%，再创上市后新低，上周曾警告持续经营的能力，并推迟提交年度财报。
波音最深跌2.6%脱离两周高位，媒体称软件问题可能导致其Max和787客机的交付延迟长达一年。
诺福克南方铁路公司跌2.6%至两周低位，周末在美国俄亥俄州再有火车脱轨，但没有运载危险品，是约一个月内在该州发生的第二起货运火车脱轨事件。
楼市不佳，美国房地产开发商KB Home跌超2%，因估值太贵被摩根大通直接将评级从“增持”降至“减持”。另一家开发商霍顿公司跌超1%，评级由“增持”降至“中性”。巴菲特持股的高端家居用品零售商RH跌5%至两个月低位，Jefferies将评级从“买入”降至“持有”。
烟草巨头奥驰亚涨超1%，将以28亿美元收购电子烟初创公司NJOY，退出对Juul的投资，此前对后者投资导致损失了数十亿美元。
瑞士信贷的欧股和美股均一度跌超2%，收跌1%，都离3月2日所创的历史新低不远。昔日大股东Harris Associates选择清仓，称担心瑞信财富管理部门的大量资金外流。

上周创下今年以来最佳单周表现的泛欧Stoxx 600指数周一微跌0.02%，原材料板块跌约2.7%领跌，旅游股涨超1.8%。主要国家股指仅英股跌，意大利银行股指数涨1%，意大利电信涨超3%。

美债收益率在美股盘中转涨，欧美关键曲线倒挂加深，两年期德债收益率再创十四年半最高

美股盘初，美债收益率维持跌势但跌幅显著收窄。美股午盘时，美债收益率已悉数转涨。但金融博客Zerohedge称，两年/10年期美债收益率倒挂创1981年10月以来最深，突显衰退担忧。

10年期基债收益率跌超6个基点并失守3.90%，转涨后重上3.98%，上周曾多次升穿4%创近四个月高位。对货币政策更敏感的两年期收益率一度跌近4个基点至4.82%，转涨后一度升破4.90%，上周曾自2007年7月以来首次涨穿4.90%关口，创十五年半最高。

欧元区基准的10年期德债收益率也尾盘转涨，盘中一度跌8个基点至2.64%，转涨后升超3个基点至2.75%，离上周所创的2011年7月以来最高2.77%不远。两年期收益率尾盘涨10个基点至日高3.315%，再创2008年10月以来最高。2/10年期收益率曲线倒挂幅度创1992年来最深。

油价跌1.7%后转涨，美油三周首次升穿80美元，美国天然气盘中跌16%逾一个月最大跌幅

国际油价一度齐跌1.7%，对欧美央行继续鹰派加息的恐慌，触发对经济失速和油需不佳的担忧。美油WTI一度跌1.34美元下逼78美元，布伦特最深跌1.47美元下逼84美元。

美股午盘时油价转涨，美油自2月中旬以来首次涨穿80美元整数位，与布油均创2月13日以来的三周高位。WTI 4月原油期货收涨0.78美元，涨幅0.98%，报79.68美元/桶。布伦特5月原油期货收涨0.35美元，涨幅0.41%，报86.18美元/桶。

欧洲基准的荷兰TTF天然气期货尾盘跌超5%，盘中跌近8%至42欧元/兆瓦时，刷新2021年9月以来的一年半低位。ICE英国天然气尾盘跌近5%，盘中跌超8%并失守110便士/千卡整数位。但有报道称，英国向欧洲大陆输气管道暂停供气，或加剧欧洲大陆天然气短缺。

上周五涨超8%的美国NYMEX 4月天然气期货周一最深跌近16%，创1月下旬以来最大单日跌幅，失守3美元整数位至一周新低，收跌超14%报2.5720美元/百万英热单位，气温预测上调和库存快速增加暗示需求疲软。上周曾涨近23%创2020年8月以来最佳表现，但今年跌超40%。

美元下跌但离七周高位不远，日元徘徊两个月低位，离岸人民币跌560点至一周低位

衡量兑六种主要货币的一篮子美元指数DXY最深跌0.3%至104.16，距离上周所创的七周高位105.36不远。美元上周曾录得1月份以来的首个周线下跌。

欧元兑美元最高涨0.6%并上逼1.07关口，创两周高位，上周曾累涨0.8%。英镑兑美元最深跌0.4%并一度失守1.20。日元兑美元升破136，仍徘徊逾两个月低位。离岸人民币跌破6.95元，较上日收盘最深跌超560点或跌0.8%，至一周低位。美国芝商所拟于4月份推出离岸人民币期权。

现货黄金跌穿1850美元失守两周半高位，伦敦工业金属普跌，芝加哥小麦期货跌近2%

COMEX 4月黄金期货收平，报1854.60美元/盎司。现货黄金跌0.6%并失守1850美元整数位，从2月15日以来的两周半高位回落。市场普遍预计本周鲍威尔维持鹰派加息论调。

需求前景担忧令伦敦工业基本金属普跌：

伦铜跌0.7%下逼8900美元，伦铝跌约1%并失守2400美元，伦锌跌1.5%并下逼3000美元，均创近一周低位。伦铅微涨，伦镍跌0.7%并接近四个月低位，伦锡跌0.8%创逾两个月新低。

芝加哥小麦期货跌近2%，失守7美元整数位，热浪和干旱席卷阿根廷农作物推高豆粕价格。纽约原糖期货跌超0.2%，投资者担心印度会加大出口供应。

编辑/Somer

The fall in u.s. bond yields pushed u.s. stocks higher, with the Dow up more than 180 points and the Nasdaq up more than 1%. Us bond yields rose in the afternoon as investors waited anxiously for the Powell congressional hearing and US non-farm payrolls data. Gains in US stocks narrowed rapidly after midday, with the S & P and Dow barely rising, while the Nasdaq stopped rising for two days. But the S & P rose for three days in a row, and the Dow rose for four days in a row, all hitting new highs in more than two weeks. Social media Snap Inc rose more than 14% at one point, and Silvergate, a currency bank on the brink of bankruptcy, fluctuated sharply to a new low.

The hawkish voting committee of the ECB supports raising interest rates by 50 basis points each at the next four meetings, and two-year German bond yields are at a 14-and-a-half-year high. Us oil rose above $80 for the first time in three weeks, while US natural gas fell 16 per cent in intraday trading, the biggest drop in more than a month, and 8 per cent in European trading. The dollar fell but not far from a seven-week high, while the offshore yuan fell 560 points to an one-week low. Spot gold fell below a two-and-a-half-week high of $1850, while London industrial metals fell.

The market is waiting for big U.S. economic data such as Tuesday's JOLTS job openings, Friday's February non-farm payrolls, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at congressional semi-annual hearings on Tuesday and Wednesday Eastern time, looking for clues to the path of US interest rate policy.

Economists expect another 225000 jobs in February, following an unexpected jump in non-farm payrolls of 517000 jobs in January.

The policy decision of central banks in Europe and the United States in March is just around the corner, and analysts say the biggest "black swan" event in the near future will be a 50 basis point increase in interest rates by the Fed in March. The market believes that the probability of raising interest rates by more than 30% is more than 30%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is reduced to less than 70%. The hawkish voting committee of the ECB supports raising interest rates by 50 basis points each at the four meetings from March to July, and high core inflation has led the market to bet that the ECB's peak interest rate is above 4%.

The latest data show that US factory and durable goods orders fell in January as spending shifted to services. The final value of durable goods orders fell 4.5 per cent, unchanged from the previous value, while factory orders fell slightly better than expected by 1.6 per cent from the previous month. Retail sales in the euro zone rose 0.3% month-on-month in January, down 2.3% from a year earlier, both better than previous values but weaker than expected, and the euro zone's Sentix investor confidence index continued to deteriorate to minus 11 in March.

The Dow rose for four days in a row, the S & P market and the Nasdaq rose for three days in a row, the Nasdaq turned down, and Tesla, Inc. fell 2% to force the four-week low.

U. S. stocks opened slightly higher on Monday, March 6, as U. S. bond yields fell, continuing last week's rally. The information technology and communications services sector led the rise at the beginning of the session, while the raw materials sector fell more than 1%, and energy stocks followed the fall in oil prices.

The Dow is up more than 180 points, or 0.5%, the S & P 500 is up 0.8%, the Nasdaq is up 1.2%, and the Nasdaq 100 is up 1.4%. Gains in u.s. stocks narrowed rapidly after midday, while Russell's small-cap stocks fell throughout the day and maintained a decline of more than 1%.

At the close, the S & P 500, the Dow and the Nasdaq 100 all barely closed higher. The S & P and Nasdaq 100 rose for three days in a row, and the Dow rose for four days, all of which were the highest in more than two weeks since February 17. The Nasdaq index rose for two days in a row, and Russell small-cap stocks rose for five days, missing a two-week high:

The S & P 500 closed up 2.78 points, or 0.07%, at 4048.42. The Dow closed up 40.47 points, or 0.12%, at 33431.44, up about 2.37% over four trading days. The Nasdaq closed down 13.27 points, or 0.11%, at 11675.74. The Nasdaq 100 index closed up 0.10%, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index closed down 1.5%.

With the exception of Tesla, Inc., star technology stocks rose more than 2% at the beginning of the session, but their gains significantly narrowed or even fell after midday. The "meta-universe" Meta rose 2.4% and then fell, missing the surrounding high. Amazon.Com Inc and Nai soared 2.5% before falling 1%, falling from one-week highs. Apple Inc rose 3.5% before closing up nearly 2% to its highest level in nearly three weeks since Feb. 15. Microsoft Corp closed up 0.6% after rising 2%, and Alphabet Inc-CL A closed up 1.6% after 2.5%, the highest in two weeks. Tesla, Inc. fell 2%, re-approaching the four-week low.

Chip stocks also fell back after midday. After rising more than 1%, the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell more than 1%, stopping its two-day rise, but not far from a two-week high. Intel Corp fell 1.6% and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd US stocks rose more than 2% before falling, missing a two-week high. Yingweida rose 1.5% and then fell 1.4%, falling from a new high since April 7 last year. Micron Technology Inc almost wiped out more than 3 per cent of the increase.

The hot ones are likely to follow the Nasdaq closing down. ETF KWEB is down more than 2%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) is down 1.7%. Of the four constituent stocks on the Nasdaq, JD.com rose 1%, Pinduoduo fell 2%, Baidu, Inc. fell 2.6%, and NetEase, Inc rose 0.7%. Among other stocks, BABA rose nearly 2% and then fell, Tencent ADR fell 2%, Bilibili Inc. and Weibo Corp fell more than 4%, TAL Education Group fell more than 5%. NIO Inc. car fell 2.7%, XPeng Inc. fell 2.5%, Li Auto Inc. fell 0.4%.

On the news side, Goldman Sachs Group proposed to increase his stake in Apple Inc for the first time in six years, saying that the huge user base would be good for the service business, with a target price of $199, suggesting that the stock price would rise by another 30 per cent in the next 12 months. In an effort to stimulate demand, Tesla, Inc. 's high-end electric cars, the Model S and Model X, have cut prices by up to $10, 000 in the US, the company's second price cut this year.

Other stocks with significant changes include:

The us department of justice may rule on Tuesday that the merger of budget airline JetBlue and spirit airlines violated antitrust rules, and spirit airlines rose 3 per cent and then quickly fell nearly 9 per cent to a 10-month low. JetBlue, which made the offer, rose more than 4% to a two-week high.
At one point, social media Snap Inc rose more than 14% to a four-week high since Feb. 7 and the biggest one-day increase since November.
The currency ring bank Silvergate Capital rose more than 10% after falling more than 11%, and finally closed down more than 6%, hitting a new post-listing low. Last week, it warned of continued operation and delayed the submission of its annual financial report.
Boeing Co fell as much as 2.6 per cent from a two-week high after media said software problems could delay delivery of its Max and 787s by up to a year.
Norfolk Southern Railway fell 2.6% to a two-week low after another train derailed in Ohio over the weekend, but did not carry dangerous goods, the second freight train derailment in the state in about a month.
The property market is not good. KB Home, a US real estate developer, fell more than 2%. Because the valuation was too expensive, JPMorgan Chase & Co directly downgraded the rating from "overweight" to "underweight". Another developer, Horton, fell more than 1%, and its rating was downgraded from "overweight" to "neutral". RH, the high-end household goods retailer in which Mr Buffett has a stake, fell 5 per cent to a two-month low as Jefferies downgraded its rating from "buy" to "hold".
Tobacco giant Ochi Asia is up more than 1% and will buy e-cigarette startup NJOY for $2.8 billion, pulling out of its investment in Juul, which lost billions of dollars.
At one point, credit suisse's European and u.s. stocks fell more than 2%, closing down 1%, both not far from the all-time lows set on march 2. Harris Associates, a former major shareholder, chose to clear its positions, saying it was worried about large capital outflows from Credit Suisse's wealth management division.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index, which last week had its best weekly performance this year, fell 0.02 per cent on Monday, led by a decline of about 2.7 per cent in the raw materials sector and more than 1.8 per cent in tourism stocks. The major national stock index only fell in the UK, with the Italian bank index up 1% and Telecom Italia up more than 3%.

Us bond yields rose in US stocks, the key curve in Europe and the US deepened upside down, and two-year German bond yields hit another 14-and-a-half-year high.

At the beginning of US stock trading, US bond yields maintained a downward trend, but the decline narrowed significantly. Us bond yields were all higher by midday. But Zerohedge, a financial blog, said two-year / 10-year Treasury yields were inverted to their deepest level since October 1981, highlighting recession fears.

The yield on the 10-year base bond fell more than 6 basis points and fell 3.90% before rising to 3.98%. It rose above 4% several times last week to a nearly four-month high. The two-year yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, fell nearly 4 basis points to 4.82 per cent at one point, rose above 4.90 per cent after rising, and last week broke through the 4.90 per cent mark for the first time since July 2007, a 15-and-a-half-year high.

The yield on the euro zone's benchmark 10-year German bond also rose in late trading, falling 8 basis points to 2.64 per cent before rising more than 3 basis points to 2.75 per cent, not far from last week's 2.77 per cent high since July 2011. The two-year yield rose 10 basis points to a daily high of 3.315% in late trading, the highest since October 2008. The inverted range of the 2 / 10-year yield curve is the deepest since 1992.

Oil prices rose after falling 1.7%, and US oil rose above $80 for the first time in three weeks, while US natural gas fell 16% in intraday trading, the biggest drop in more than a month.

At one point, international oil prices fell 1.7%, and fears that central banks in Europe and the United States continued to raise interest rates hawkishly triggered concerns about economic stall and poor oil demand. At one point, American Oil WTI fell $1.34 to $78, while Brent fell as much as $1.47 to $84.

Oil prices rose at midday in US stocks, with US Oil rising above the integer figure of $80 for the first time since mid-February, with both oil and oil reaching a three-week high since February 13. WTI April crude oil futures closed up 78 cents, or 0.98 percent, at $79.68 a barrel. Brent may crude oil futures closed up $0.35, or 0.41%, at $86.18 a barrel.

Dutch TTF natural gas futures, the European benchmark, fell more than 5 per cent in late trading and fell nearly 8 per cent to 42 euros per megawatt-hour, an one-and-a-half-year low since September 2021. ICE British Natural Gas fell nearly 5 per cent in late trading, fell more than 8 per cent in intraday trading and lost 110p / kcal integer. However, there are reports that the suspension of gas supply to Britain's gas pipeline to the European continent may aggravate the natural gas shortage in the continent.

Us NYMEX April natural gas futures, which rose more than 8 per cent on Friday, fell as much as 16 per cent on Monday, the biggest one-day decline since late January, losing $3 to a week low and closing down more than 14 per cent at $2.5720 per million British thermal units. rising temperature forecasts and a rapid increase in inventories suggest weak demand. It rose nearly 23 per cent last week, its best performance since August 2020, but is down more than 40 per cent this year.

The dollar fell but not far from a seven-week high, the yen hovered around a two-month low, and the offshore RMB fell 560 points to an one-week low

The dollar index DXY, a basket of six major currencies, fell as much as 0.3 per cent to 104.16, not far from last week's seven-week high of 105.36. The dollar recorded its first weekly decline since January last week.

The euro rose as much as 0.6 per cent against the dollar and closed at 1.07, a two-week high after rising 0.8 per cent last week. The pound fell as much as 0.4 per cent against the dollar and lost 1.20 at one point. The yen rose above 136 against the dollar and remained at a two-month low. The offshore renminbi fell below 6.95 yuan, down more than 560 points, or 0.8%, from the previous day's close, to an one-week low. The US company plans to launch offshore RMB options in April.

Spot gold fell below a two-and-a-half-week high of $1850, industrial metals fell in London and wheat futures in Chicago fell nearly 2 per cent.

COMEX April gold futures closed flat at $1854.60 an ounce. Spot gold fell 0.6 per cent and lost $1850, falling from a two-and-a-half-week high since Feb. 15. Powell is widely expected to maintain a hawkish interest rate hike this week.

Worries about the demand outlook have led to a drop in industrial base metals in London:

Lun copper fell 0.7 per cent to push $8900, while aluminum fell about 1 per cent and lost $2400, while zinc fell 1.5 per cent and pushed $3000, all of which hit a near-week low. Lunxi lead rose slightly, Lenny fell 0.7% and was close to a four-month low, while Lunxi fell 0.8% to a more than two-month low.

Chicago wheat futures fell nearly 2%, losing $7 as heat waves and droughts swept through Argentine crops and pushed up soybean meal prices. New York raw sugar futures fell more than 0.2% as investors worried that India would increase its export supply.

Edit / Somer

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