【今日复盘】
经济增长目标为5%,缺乏强刺激预期下,市场出现回调。北向资金净流入1亿元,主要买入TCL中环(002129.SZ)、隆基绿能(601012.SH)等。
早端中字头再度发力,吸金比较严重,但绝大部分都出现了冲高回落,对大盘反而起到负面反馈,这块的炒作已经转向小盘类,反复提到的小盘基建股中公高科(603860.SH)再度晋级3板,已经成为板块龙头,首板有中材节能(603126.SH)。
市场再度进入HARD模式,涨停的个股屈指可数。高标华脉科技(603042.SH)昨天T字板,今天直接一字跌停,对情绪压制很大。chatGPT持续受到来自于浪潮信息(000977.SZ)的压力,该股开盘就跌停,虽然盘中有翘板,但依旧被空头压制,全天成交了119亿巨量,明天估计更难承接。
前期核心品种均受到负面冲击,本来走势偏强的应用端个股因为在相对高位也不敢发力,资金只能攻击低位新品种,新挖掘的首板有ChatGPT叠加元宇宙概念天下秀(600556.SH),云计算叠加多重概念新炬网络(605398.SH),医疗AI概念润达医疗(603108.SH)。该板块今天分歧很大,但不能说完全退潮,处了高低切换,部分品种也出现了抵抗,如鸿博股份(002229.SZ)、海天瑞声(688787.SH)等,看看明天能否修复。
国防预算增速超出市场预期,军工板块顺势而起,先锋中船科技(600072.SH)快速拉板。龙头中国卫通(601698.SH)再度发力,中军中航电测(300114.SZ)尾市拉升创近期新高。
6G概念再受政策扶持。首板有6G叠加卫星导航概念盛路通信(002446.SZ),6G叠加储能概念世嘉科技(002796.SZ)。
在主流板块AI偏弱之下,资金又开始转向调整充分的光伏赛道,其中硅片和石英砂细分领涨。欧晶科技(001269.SZ)石英坩埚处于满产满销状态。HJT概念三孚新科(688359.SH)20CM涨停。TCL中环(002129.SZ)一度触及涨停。
消费类也是资金无奈选择,老龙头集体出现异动,新零售叠加预制菜概念人人乐(002336.SZ)连板。西安饮食(000721.SZ)、徐家汇(002561.SZ)均出现异动。
指数目前在选择方向中,加上重要会议的进行时,这段时间预计以震荡分化为主,操作上,一边注意仓控,一边注意节奏。无论是光伏、零售都难以走出持续性,继续观察人工智能分歧之后的市场反应。
人工智能
政府工作报告看点:构建新型举国体制,组建国家实验室,分批推进全国重点实验室重组。一些关键核心技术攻关取得新突破,载人航天、超级计算机、卫星导航、人工智能等领域创新成果不断涌现。人工智能技术作为驱动数据经济的技术底层,有望迎来新的发展机遇。
天下秀(600556.SH):传虹宇宙与ChatGPT开始测试,微博子公司拟斥资21.6亿元向新浪子公司收购天下秀3.33亿股股权,与新华社新媒体中心联合发起的数字化云平台“云游中国”正式发布。
电信运营
3月5日,工信部部长在首场“部长通道”上表示,我国已经建成规模最大、技术最先进的5G网络,5G方面已经名列世界前列。5G移动手机用户已超过5.75亿户,今年将新建开通5G基站60万个,总数将超过290万个。我国的6G推进工作组已经在开展工作,要加强国际合作,加快6G的研发。
盛路通信(002446.SZ):与华为在微波/毫米波天线、智能终端天线等领域有合作,有GPS/北斗天线业务,布局6G技术的研发工作,研究覆盖太空、陆地、海洋等综合信息网络的相关技术和产品。
世嘉科技(002796.SZ):跟踪6G技术产品并开展相应的技术储备,通信基站射频系统项目已投入使用,与阿诗特能源就储能柜领域签署合作框架协议,向20多个国家累计出货1.5GWh,年产能3GWh。
【掘金龙虎榜】
欧晶科技(001269.SZ):受到众多机构青睐,今日共3个机构席位出现在龙虎榜单上,对倒合计净买入3585万元,买四是知名游资的席位买入1168万元,当日净买入4902万元,该股今日突破所有均线,有望冲击近期高点。
基本面分析:公司可生产用于CCZ长晶法拉制单晶硅棒专用的石英坩埚,已具备40英寸太阳能级石英坩埚生产的能力。公司研发生产的石英坩埚对于N型/P型硅片硅棒的拉制均可以使用,合成石英砂制作石英坩埚目前正处于试验阶段。
竞争优势愈发显著。公司与美国西比科(尤尼明)长期保持战略合作关系,与石英股份签订高纯石英砂采购协议至2026年底,由于公司为TCL中环的主要坩埚供应商,TCL中环亦能助力公司锁定部分高纯石英砂产能。当前行业高纯石英砂供应较为紧张,公司凭借原材料供应的锁定加强竞争优势,充分甚至超额传导原材料涨价至下游,提升盈利能力。
公司产能扩张较快,市占率有望持续提升。公司目前具有10条光伏石英坩埚产线,IPO募投项目拟升级其中4条产能较小的产线,并扩建2条半导体石英坩埚产线,受益于公司石英砂矿源储备充分,公司2023年上半年产能有望提升至20条线。石英坩埚市场竞争格局清晰,除作为TCL中环、隆基股份供应商的欧晶科技、江阴龙源、宁夏晶隆具有较高市场份额外,其他坩埚企业规模总体较小。
【机构调研】
万马股份(002276.SZ):近期获南方基金、兴证全球基金、银华基金、富安达基金等机构密集调研。
基本面分析:公司是我国唯一可以批量生产220kV及以上超净绝缘材料和电缆抗水树绝缘材料的企业,打破了陶氏化学,北欧化工等国外公司的长期垄断,预计未来5年左右,公司高分子年产量将从21年的约37万吨向120万吨,当前高压电缆料的市场份额为10-12%,中低压市场份额30%。杭州本部超高压一期2万吨产能已于22年投产,预计其中110kv超高压料出货超1万吨。超高压二期2万吨项目将于23年达产,将进一步支撑超高压料放量。
公司产品结构优化,高盈利机器人线束产品(净利润率估计15%)切入库卡、ABB供应链,订单将于23年加速放量,带动公司电力电缆业务盈利中枢向上。目前公司已实现全国主要城市充电 站覆盖,运营效率逐步提升,公司22年实现充电量4.25亿度,同比增长34.9%,截至12M22公共充电桩保有量为26,484根,同比增长34.9%。23年随着电动汽车保有量增加,以及出行信心复苏有望驱动充电桩使用率提升,公司充电业务有望减亏。
[review today]
The economic growth target is 5%, and the market pullback in the absence of strong stimulus expectations. Northward capital inflow of 100 million yuan, mainly buying TCL Central (002129.SZ), Longji Green Energy (601012.SH) and so on.
In the early end of the prefix once again, the gold absorption is more serious, but the vast majority of the emergence of a high decline, but the market has played a negative feedback, this hype has turned to small-cap category, repeatedly mentioned small-cap infrastructure stocks in the public high-tech (603860.SH) once again promoted to the third board, has become a plate leader, the first board has medium material energy conservation (603126.SH).
The market has once again entered the HARD mode, with only a handful of stocks trading by the daily limit. High-standard Huamai Technology (603042.SH) T-word board yesterday, today directly a word fell to the limit, a lot of emotional suppression. ChatGPT continued to be under pressure from the tide information (000977.SZ), the stock fell the limit at the beginning of trading, although there was a warping board in the session, but it was still suppressed by bears, with a huge volume of 11.9 billion traded throughout the day, which is expected to be more difficult to undertake tomorrow.
Early core varieties are negatively impacted, originally strong application stocks dare not send force because they are relatively high, funds can only attack low-level new varieties, the newly excavated first board are ChatGPT superimposed meta-universe concept World Show (600556.SH), cloud computing superimposed multiple concept new torch network (605398.SH), medical AI concept Runda Medical (603108.SH). The plate is very different today, but can not be said to be completely out of the tide, where the high and low switch, some varieties also appeared resistance, such as Hongbo shares (002229.SZ), Haitian AAC (688787.SH), and so on, to see if it can be repaired tomorrow.
Defense budget growth exceeded market expectations, the military industry plate homeopathy, the vanguard of China Shipbuilding Technology (600072.SH) rapid pull board. Leading China Satcom (601698.SH) renewed its efforts, and the military Aviation Electrical Survey (300114.SZ) pulled up to a recent high at the end of the market.
The concept of 6G is supported by policy again. The headboard has 6G superimposed satellite navigation concept Shenglu Communication (002446.SZ) and 6G superimposed energy storage concept Sega Technology (002796.SZ).
Under the weak AI of the mainstream plate, funds began to turn to the fully adjusted photovoltaic track, in which silicon wafer and quartz sand subdivision led the rise. 001269.SZ quartz crucible is in a state of full production and full pin. HJT concept Sanfu Xinke (688359.SH) 20CM trading limit. TCL Central (002129.SZ) once hit the limit.
Consumption is also a capital helpless choice, the old leader collective changes, the new retail superimposed prefabricated food concept Renle (002336.SZ) connected board. Xi'an diet (000721.SZ) and Xujiahui (002561.SZ) showed abnormal changes.
The index is currently in the choice of direction, coupled with the conduct of important meetings, this period of time is expected to be mainly shock differentiation, operation, while paying attention to warehouse control, while paying attention to rhythm. Both photovoltaic and retail are difficult to get out of sustainability, and continue to observe the market reaction after the differences in artificial intelligence.
artificial intelligence
The focus of the government work report is to build a new national system, set up national laboratories, and promote the reorganization of national key laboratories in batches. New breakthroughs have been made in some key core technologies, and innovations in manned spaceflight, supercomputers, satellite navigation, artificial intelligence and other fields continue to emerge. As the bottom of the technology to drive the data economy, artificial intelligence technology is expected to usher in new development opportunities.
World Show (600556.SH): Chuanhong Universe and ChatGPT began testing. Weibo Corp's subsidiary plans to spend 2.16 billion yuan to buy 333 million shares of Tian Xiu from New Prodigal son, and officially launch Yunyou China, a digital cloud platform jointly launched with Xinhua News Agency New Media Center.
Telecom operation
On March 5, the Minister of Industry and Information Technology said at the first "ministerial channel" that China has built the largest and most technologically advanced 5G network, which is among the forefront of the world. The number of 5G mobile phone users has exceeded 575 million, and 600000 new 5G base stations will be opened this year, with a total of more than 2.9 million. China's 6G Propulsion working Group is already working to strengthen international cooperation and speed up the research and development of 6G.
002446.SZ: cooperate with Huawei in microwave / millimeter wave antenna, smart terminal antenna and other fields, including GPS/ Beidou antenna business, research and development of layout 6G technology, research and development of related technologies and products covering space, land, ocean and other integrated information networks.
Sega Technology (002796.SZ): track 6G technology products and carry out corresponding technology reserves, communication base station radio frequency system project has been put into use, signed a cooperation framework agreement with Ashite Energy on the field of energy storage cabinets, cumulative shipments of 1.5GWh to more than 20 countries, annual production capacity 3GWh.
[Nuggets Dragon and Tiger list]
European Crystal Technology (001269.SZ): favored by many institutions, a total of three institutional seats appear on the Dragon and Tiger list today, buying a total of 35.85 million yuan, buying four seats with well-known hot money to buy 11.68 million yuan, and buying a net 49.02 million yuan that day, the stock broke through all averages today and is expected to hit recent highs.
Fundamental analysis:The company can produce quartz crucibles for CCZ long crystal drawing single crystal silicon rods, and has the ability to produce 40-inch solar grade quartz crucibles. The quartz crucible developed and produced by the company can be used for the drawing of N-type / P-type silicon wafer, and the quartz crucible made of synthetic quartz sand is currently in the experimental stage.
The competitive advantage is becoming more and more obvious.The company has maintained a long-term strategic cooperative relationship with Sibiko (Uniming) in the United States and signed a high purity quartz sand procurement agreement with quartz shares until the end of 2026. As the company is the main crucible supplier in TCL Central, TCL Central can also help the company to lock in some of the production capacity of high purity quartz sand. At present, the supply of high-purity quartz sand in the industry is relatively tight, and the company relies on the locking of raw material supply to strengthen its competitive advantage, fully or even over-transmit the price increase of raw materials to the downstream to enhance profitability.
The company's production capacity is expanding rapidly, and its market share is expected to continue to increase.The company currently has 10 photovoltaic quartz crucible production lines, and the IPO investment project plans to upgrade 4 of the smaller production lines and expand 2 semiconductor quartz crucible production lines, benefiting from the company's abundant quartz ore reserves, the company's production capacity is expected to increase to 20 lines in the first half of 2023. The competition pattern of quartz crucible market is clear. Except for Oujing Technology, Jiangyin Longyuan and Ningxia Jinglong, which are suppliers of TCL Central and Longji shares, the scale of other crucible enterprises is generally small.
[institutional research]
Wanma shares (002276.SZ): recently received intensive research by Southern Fund, Xingsheng Global Fund, Yinhua Fund, Fu Anda Fund and other institutions.
Fundamental analysis:The company is the only enterprise in China that can mass produce 220kV and above ultra-clean insulation materials and cable water-resistant tree insulation materials, breaking the long-term monopoly of Dow Chemical, Nordic Chemical and other foreign companies. It is estimated that in the next five years, the company's annual polymer output will increase from about 370000 tons in 21 years to 1.2 million tons. The current market share of high-voltage cable materials is 10-12%, and the market share of medium and low voltage is 30%. The production capacity of the first phase of ultra-high pressure in Hangzhou has been put into production in 22 years, of which the shipment of 110kv ultra-high pressure materials is expected to exceed 10, 000 tons. The 20,000-ton ultra-high pressure second phase project will reach production in 23 years, which will further support the discharge of ultra-high pressure materials.
The company's product structure is optimized, and high-profit robot wire harness products (estimated net profit margin of 15%) cut into Kuka and ABB supply chain. Orders will accelerate in 23 years, driving the profit center of the company's power cable business upward. At present, the company has achieved the coverage of charging stations in major cities across the country, and the operating efficiency has gradually improved. In 22 years, the company has achieved 425 million kilowatt-hours of charging, an increase of 34.9 percent over the same period last year. As of 12M22, the number of public charging piles is 26484, an increase of 34.9 percent over the same period last year. With the increase in the number of electric vehicles and the recovery of travel confidence in 23 years, the company's charging business is expected to reduce losses.