Event: Bilibili Inc. 22Q4's total revenue is 6.142 billion yuan (YoY+6.3%), and Non-GAAP 's net profit is-1.312 billion yuan (20.6% lower than the same period last year). In 2022, the revenue was 21.899 billion yuan (YoY+13.0%), and the net profit of Non-GAAP was-6.692 billion yuan (YoY+22.2%).
Games: Q4 achieved revenue of 1.15 billion yuan (YoY-11.5%), mainly Q4 domestic games launched late and did not appear popular style, income contribution is limited. In the future, the company will focus on advantages such as two-dimensional cards. It is expected that two self-developed games will be launched in Q2 this year, and the company's game business is expected to pick up. Value-added services: in terms of members, many national masterpieces such as "three-body" and "China Qitan" continue to go out of the circle and maintain high popularity, driving the number of Q4 paying households to 28.1 million (YoY+14.7%), full members to 195 million (YoY+34.5%), and large members to 21.4 million (an increase of nearly 1 million compared with the previous month). In terms of live broadcasting, according to the data of Bilibili Inc. 's annual night of live broadcasting in 2022, the number of monthly broadcasters of Bilibili Inc. live broadcasts in 2022 was + 64% compared with the same period last year, and the number of anchors earning income was + 78% compared with the same period last year. Advertising: Q4 is affected by the macro environment and is optimistic about the subsequent recovery of advertising demand and the advertising revenue brought by Story Mode & the improvement of cash efficiency.
Operation: content production capacity continues to improve, users maintain high stickiness. Q4 monthly active UP main quantity YoY+25%, more than 10,000 fans UP main quantity YoY+51%, monthly average contribution amount YoY+62%, more than 1.3 million UP main income (YoY+64%). There are 330 million MAU (YoY+20.0%), 92.8 million DAU (YoY+28.5%), 28.5% user stickiness (YoY+1.9pcts), 96 minutes per day (YoY+17.1%), and 80% retention of full members in the 12th month, maintaining high user stickiness.
Profitability: gross profit margin improved month-on-month, cost reduction and efficiency continued to be realized. With the gradual reduction of the company's IT cost, bandwidth cost, content cost and revenue improvement, Q4 gross profit margin is + 2.1pct to 18.2%. It is expected that there is still much room for improvement in the future. Q4 sales expense rate is 20.6% (YoY-9.9pcts), the focus of user growth strategy has shifted to high-quality development, and promotion costs have declined.
The rate of management / R & D expenses increased by 51.8pcts/87.3pcts respectively compared with the same period last year, mainly due to optimizing the impact of one-time expenses of the business. The net profit of Q4 Non-GAAP was-1.312 billion yuan, 20.6% lower than the same period last year and 25.6% lower than the previous year.
Investment advice: in the short term, with the gradual pick-up of the macro environment and the recovery of consumer demand, corporate advertising, games, live streaming, e-commerce and other businesses are expected to benefit, reduce costs and efficiency continue to narrow losses, while we need to pay attention to the access in March. In the long run, as a content video community platform, the company has high-quality growth of user scale, stable ecological barriers to community system and PUGC content, and continuous follow-up and accelerated realization potential in the process of commercialization. We estimate that in 2022-2024, the company will achieve revenue of 219.0 pesos, 2835 pesos, 32.59 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year, + 12.98 percent, 29.48 percent, and 14.92 percent, and the net profit of homing is-76.5 pesos, 61.0 pesques, 2.76 billion yuan. According to the P/MAU valuation method, the reasonable market capitalization of Bilibili Inc. is 68.4 billion yuan (HK $77.7 billion), maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: policy risk, user growth is not as expected, and the process of commercialization is not as expected.