The company's 2022 revenue / EBITDA endogenous year-on-year + 2.4% Universe 5.2%. 2022Q4 in China was greatly affected by the epidemic in the short term, and high-end current drinking channels were dragged down; South Korea performed well under the marginal weakening of the epidemic; the market in India returned to higher than the pre-epidemic level, and the annual income of high-end and ultra-high-end categories nearly doubled compared with the same period last year. Looking forward to 2023, China hopes to achieve a good recovery under the gradual slowdown of the impact of the epidemic, South Korea still has room to increase sales and tonnage prices after the cancellation of indoor masks, and the acceptance of beer in India continues to rise and the high-end situation is good. In the medium-and long-term dimension, it is optimistic that the company will continue to lead the high-end market, make full use of digital ecology to improve efficiency, and explore diversified growth space in ultra-high-end and non-beer sectors, raising its "buy" rating.
2022 income / EBITDA Endogenous year-on-year + 2.4% Grammer 5.2%. In 2022, the company achieved revenue of US $6.48 billion, year-on-year-4.6% / endogenous + 2.4%, of which volume / price endogenous year-on-year + 0.7% Universe 1.7% EBITDA1.93 billion, year-on-year-9.7% / endogenous-5.2%. 2022Q4 achieved revenue of US $1.17 billion (unaudited, the same below), year-on-year-18.5% / endogenous-4.8%, of which volume / price is-2.2% Rue 2.6% bot EBITDA is US $200 million, year-on-year-44.6% / endogenous-34.7%. The big difference between year-on-year growth and endogenous growth is mainly due to the impact of changes in the exchange rate between the US dollar and RMB.
Western Asia-Pacific: due to the impact of the epidemic on current drinking channels in China, volume and price are under short-term pressure. In 2022, the income of the western Asia-Pacific region decreased by 10.6%. Among them, the income of Q4 decreased by 45.1%. Weight price point of view, 1) Volume: 2022/22Q4 sales in western Asia-Pacific are endogenous-0.4% CPM 3.6% respectively. Among them, the Chinese market 2022/22Q4 is endogenous-3.0% Universe 7.0% (22H1 is-5.5% Magi 22Q3 + 3.7%). High-end and ultra-high-end brands are affected by the epidemic due to the lack of night shows and catering channels, resulting in a double-digit decline in revenue in the fourth quarter. India has become one of the top five Budweiser markets in terms of sales volume. 2) Price: the 2022/22Q4 tonnage price in the western Asia-Pacific region is endogenous-0.1% Maomei 6.2%, of which the Chinese market tonnage price is endogenous-1.2% pesque 8.6%, mainly because the high-end sales channels of the market are greatly affected by the epidemic. We believe that the overall sales of Q4 in China is greatly affected by external environmental factors, and the upgrading of product structure is expected to continue.
Eastern Asia-Pacific: core brands and new products are making positive efforts, with both volume and price rising in a good consumer environment. In 2022, the income of the eastern Asia-Pacific region was endogenous + 15.5%, and the EBITDA was endogenous + 23.9%; of which, Q4 was endogenous + 13.8%, and EBITDA was + 3.8%. Weight price point of view, 1) Volume: Asia-Pacific East 2022/22Q4 sales endogenous + 8.9% Universe 5.3% Personality 22Q4 continue to expand South Korea market share to maintain growth. 2) Price: the company's 2022/22Q4 tonnage endogenous + 6.1% Universe 8.1% Magne22Q4 continuously optimizes the product portfolio. The company performed well under the marginal decreasing disturbance of the epidemic in 2022, and is expected to maintain a good growth trend in 2023.
Profit analysis: short-term channels and product structure are disturbed by the epidemic, and the tone of long-term high-end development remains unchanged.
2022/22Q4 gross profit margin year-on-year-3.9 2022/22Q4EBITDA 6.1PctsMagi 2022 distribution / sales and marketing / management expense rate year-on-year + 0.4/-3.0/+0.2Pcts, other operating income remained stable, overall 2022/22Q4EBITDA profit margin year-on-year. Single Q4 analysis report changes, the overall gross profit end tonnage price decreased, the cost of short-term pressure. Among them, the tonnage price decreased by 16.6% compared with the same period last year, mainly because the high-end sales channels in China were disturbed by the epidemic and related to the exchange rate; the cost per ton decreased by 6.1% compared with the same period last year, and the pressure on raw materials was marginal alleviated. The cost side of the company adjusted accordingly, and the overall cost rate increased slightly in the fourth quarter. Overall, the profit level of 2022Q4 Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited is weaker than that of the third quarter ring.
Risk factors: the recovery of the epidemic is not as expected; macroeconomic pressure; raw material price risk; increased labor costs; beer industry high-end prices with increased competition; high-end lower than expected; food safety issues.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the channels in China gradually improved and recovered as the impact of the epidemic weakened, and the opening rate of current beverage channels returned to about 98% by the end of February 2023 (Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited's 2022 results conference data); South Korea is expected to continue to benefit from high-end and product structure optimization, the continued promotion of Cass White and HANMAC products; the Indian beer market has long-term growth space and high-end potential. Taking into account the company's recent performance report and the rapid recovery of current beverage consumption in China since February 2023, we adjust our 2022 EPS forecast to HK $0.53 (the original forecast is HK $0.62), maintain the 2023 EPS forecast at HK $0.70 and HK $0.84 in 2024, and give the company 40 times PE in 2023 compared to the domestic leading PE level (China Resources Beer / Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited 2023 Wind consensus expected PE valuation 331,37 times). Corresponding to the target price of HK $28. Considering the product matrix and digital ecological layout of the company's ultra-high-end and ultra-beer products, the company is expected to continue to lead the high-end development of the beer industry, and we have upgraded our rating to "buy" based on the recent recovery of domestic consumption in China.