配方颗粒全年受国标切换影响，业绩短期承压。 2022 年，公司预计实现营收66.51 亿元，同比降低13.29%；预计实现归母净利润6.25 亿元，同比降低9.10%；预计实现扣非净利润5.72 亿元，同比降低15.65%。2022 年全年业绩短期承压，主要是配方颗粒在2022年处于国标切换早期，品种数目不齐全，加上新标准的研发生产及销售切换等方面给公司带来一定经营压力。Events:
Hongri Pharmaceutical released its 2022 results KuaiBao: in 2022, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 6.651 billion yuan, down 13.29% from the same period last year; and expected to achieve a net profit of 625 million yuan, down 9.10% from the same period last year.
Main points of investment:
Formula particles are affected by GB switching throughout the year, and the performance is under short-term pressure. In 2022, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 6.651 billion yuan, down 13.29% from the same period last year; net profit is expected to be 625 million yuan, down 9.10% from the same period last year; and non-net profit is expected to be deducted from 572 million yuan, down 15.65% from the same period last year. The short-term pressure on the annual performance in 2022 is mainly due to the fact that the formula particles are in the early stage of national standard switching in 2022, the number of varieties is not complete, and the R & D, production and sales switching of the new standards bring certain operating pressure to the company.
The benefit of the epidemic + the variety of formula particles increased, and the performance of the company exceeded expectations in the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the company achieved revenue of 1.751 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.85% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 154 million yuan, an increase of 207% over the same period last year. After the release of the epidemic situation in the fourth quarter of 2022, there was a certain growth demand for the company's medical equipment oximeter and traditional Chinese medicine injection Xuebijing; the demand for varieties related to cold and heat clearing of formula granules increased, while the prescription quantity of other types of formula granules was negatively affected by the epidemic. At the same time, with the gradual increase of provincial standard varieties of formula granules in the second half of 2022, the provincial standard record continued to advance, which also brought some improvement to the sales of formula granules.
The variety standard of formula granules will continue to increase + outpatient volume recovery to promote the sales volume of formula granules. At the beginning of February 2023, the Pharmacopoeia announced the formal promulgation of 48 new national standard varieties, which are expected to be put into sale as soon as the filing is completed; by the end of February 2023, a total of 248 national standard varieties have been officially promulgated, with the provincial standard filing of formula granules for the record. the number of varieties available for sale of formula granules continues to increase. At present, the number of outpatients in the hospital also gradually recovered with the stability of the epidemic, which will bring certain benefits to the improvement of the prescription quantity of formula particles and the development of blank market. With the increase of the number of formula granules and the recovery of outpatient flow, the performance elasticity of formula granules is expected.
Profit forecast and investment rating due to the slow progress of the national standard of formula granules in 2022, we adjusted the company's EPS for 2022-2024 to 0.21pm 0.29max 0.41 yuan, and the corresponding share price PE to 31.69max 22.96max 16.11 times. Due to the incomplete number of varieties, the prescription quantity of formula particles has not returned to the level of the same period in a short time. In the long run, health insurance will support the increase of provinces and the opening of sales terminals, promote the expansion of the traditional Chinese medicine formula granule industry, be optimistic about the growth after the implementation of the national standard, and maintain the "buy" rating.
The risk suggests that the switching of the national standard of formula particles is not as expected; the company's management is not as expected; the epidemic situation affects the operation of the business; competition intensifies; macroeconomic development is not as expected; medical policy risks and so on.